American Bee Colonies Suffer HUGE Losses

Colony Loss 2014 – 2015: Preliminary Results

The Bee Informed Partnership (http://beeinformed.org), in collaboration with the Apiary Inspectors of America (AIA) and the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), is releasing preliminary results for the ninth annual national survey of honey bee colony losses. For the 2014/2015 winter season, a preliminary 6,128 beekeepers in the United States provided valid responses. Collectively, these beekeepers managed 398,247 colonies in October 2014, representing about 14.5% of the country’s estimated 2.74 million managed honey bee colonies1.

About two-thirds of the respondents (67.2%) experienced winter colony loss rates greater than the average self-reported acceptable winter mortality rate of 18.7%. Preliminary results estimate that a total of 23.1% of the colonies managed in the Unites States were lost over the 2014/2015 winter. This would represent a decrease in losses of 0.6% compared to the previous 2013/2014 winter, which had reported a total loss estimated at 23.7%. This is the second year in a row the reported colony loss rate was notably lower than the 9-year average total loss of 28.7% (see Figure 1). Read More.

Dr. Kinesa's - Global Edge

If the bees go -guess who's next??

International Offices

May 22, 2015

Live Science - Ice Caps Melting, Worst in 44,000 Years!

Ice Caps Melting

 Live Science

Worst in 44,000 Years! 
Read More
Stunning Canadian Artic Images 

Does this mean that Santa Claus is soon going to have move his  headquarters and manufacturing facilities from the North Pole? The problem: Where does he move them to? Will it affect Christmas deiveries?

For sure, there is a tone of sacacism in these questions, but it is actually one of the implications that stems from the melting of the polar ice caps. Poor Rudolf. We are not going to revisit the climate debate in these commnents as we think that the Live Science article provides all the material you need to further evauate the issue. Instead, what we really want to bring to your attention are the pictures of the melting ice caps and the land that is now being exposed.

Pictures again speak volumes of the gravity of the warming global climate making it easier to understand how positive feedback loops are formed to further agrivate this problem.

How the deniers want to explain away such evidence, tests the boundaries of all reason. But no doubt they will try.

Meanwhile, we have the pictures.

Dr Peter G Kinesa
November 7, 2013

"Wow Elf Donter! It is getting warmer..."

Santa Claus, 2012

Five Billion People Face Water Scarcity

Water Scarcity

Five Billion At Risk

Read More

By the end of this century with concurrent trending in population growth it is projected that up to five billion people could be exposed towater scarcity. These figures are according to a recent scientific research letter published in IPOScience  (read more  above).  Here’s the real scary part – that assumes that temperature does not rise 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels. Guess what? We are trending to go higher because restrictive measures are not being implemented.  The number should be bigger!

The report referenced provides ample numerical, mathematical and modeling analysis if you have a geeky urge.  What cannot be emphasized enough is that we are not just talking about ducks and daisies here – we are talking about the essence of human life. Climate change is not a bad dream to be swept under the media carpet, and ignoring it may not affect our lives, but the misery we are leaving our children, grand children and so on, has never been imagined by any word constructions of any dictionary on the planet.

Now, I leave you with no further words - just that thought…  

Dr Peter G Kinesa

October 17,2013

Popular Museum Attraction - 2133 AD 

Japan's PM Sends #Fukushima SOS

Japan's PM Sends

Fukushima SOS

“My country needs your knowledge and expertise”

(Al Jazeera America)

Read More Here

Almost daily the reactor at Fukushima faces new leaks of radioactive water as tanks overflow and spill their refuse into nearby seas. Over a month ago Japan had stated to the 2020 Olympic Committee, that the situation was under control. Not so, as reflected by their Prime Minister's recent call for international assistance. Japan's problems are also flowing over into the nuclear industry, that just had two multi-billion dollar projects more or less cancelled in a Canadian province.

It seems that the media is also playing down the consequences on the local fishing industry because local Sushi restaurants are in a business as usual mode. At this point it is hard to determine what the final outcomes will be until the situation is put to rest and some time has lapsed to allow for a damage assessment. There is little doubt its affects are far-reaching and may still have an impact on the larger economy as energy costs are certain to rise over time. 

Crippling the world's third largest economy is sure to have spreading global effects that may ultimately cause havoc in the global financial markets too. Therefore, it is self-evident why such a hush-hush environment exists around disclosure, events and media.

Meaning that we are going to continue monitoring developments as they are reported. Events here could dramatically change too many things, particularly when there is little evidence that they are contained or may even becoming worse?

Dr Peter G Kinesa

October 12, 2013  

Marc Faber's Highly-Unprofessional Know-It-All Interview

Marc Faber's Highly- Unprofessional Know-It-All Interview 

  Thai TV, September 20, 2013

Their Business Greats Tiger Team

There is little doubt the Marc has a fairly good grasp of the technical issues related to the global financial situatIon. Whether he is right or wrong is another matter. He conveys a strong sense of certitude with regard to his thoughts and opinions. Such an attitude should be expected from an investment promoter. 

The Fed is in a bind and there are signs that the QE program is faltering. As he points out, the ten year treasuries have risen from a low of about 1.5% a year ago, to almost to 3% today. As he says, "that's a 100% increase." Marc believes that the Fed will continue with its QE program with little; if any, tapering for some time, in an meager effort to hold down  low long-bond rates. By now, everyone is aware that a surge in these rates would be devastating to the global financial system and the overbought stock markets. We go along with his view.

He also makes reference to the absurdity of Keynesian and Neo-Keynesian (Turbocharged) economists - the latter apparently proposes fiscal deficits of $5 Trillion to resolve the US's economic problems. While we agree that such a move is unconscionable, Dr. Doom provides us with little insight into what remedies he would alternatively propose.

This lack of a deep understanding of the physical existential forces driving the world's economy is apparent in most of this interview. The very fact that Marc entirely discounts, any and all, participation or insights from academia, and concurrently holds business opinions and views, as the ultimate source of a monopolistic truth, speaks volumes as to the depth and objective quality of Marc's thinking, information, sources and analysis. This negativity further suggests a"know-it-all" attitude bias that tears apart the speaker's credibility, leading us to distrust the balance, integrity and substance of all else that was asserted. To be short, we were taken aback by the utter short-sightedness and arrogance of this remark and related thoughts.

This, of course, deepens our concern and skepticism about such pundits who operate with multiple narrow-minded agendas.  We would prefer a more open, professional approach to information, sources and thinking. Similar to the philosophical thoughts of Socrates: "the only true wisdom is in knowing that you know nothing." And maybe Abraham Lincoln's approach would also be useful to opening a wider discourse of opposing or alternative views for better decisions. Lincoln recognized that all of us have our limitations; so he sought the insights, company and advice of seven or eight folks smarter than himself. Hmm. Maybe even an academic or two?

Marc, we fully recognize and believe that you are entitled to your opinions regarding all these useless academics  - but then again, what do we know?

Dr Peter G Kinesa
September 26, 2013  

Our Humble Academic Bonehead Team   

              

  

Who's Planning World's End - Stephen Hawking?

Who's Planning World's End - Stephen Hawking? 

"What! Now they even started a committee?"

Do you ever have that sneaky suspicion with all the news about climate change, biosphere collapse, financial instability, political strife and war, overpopulation and social upheaval that the world is soon coming to an end? Who ever really thought it could go on forever anyhow? So if you do have those sinking feelings, your thoughts are in line with Stephen Hawking and other "Big Brains" who are getting together to formulate plans for the end of the world.

This article (linked above) from The Independent lists the members of this elite committee along with its agenda of  possible end-game scenarios. Two things are obvious to our "Little Brains" firstly, is the people who are missing on this committee, and secondly, the short list of scenarios. We could add at least ten more possible end-games stories. And more likely ones too. .

That in itself speaks volumes - but we hope these guys are smart enough to realize that once they design their end of the world plan - don't forget to pass it around to the rest of us.

Gotta hand to our great leaders - but never forget they are the same one's that got us here!

Dr Peter G Kinesa

September 18, 2013

P.S. By the way, had the opportunity to discuss this topic with a poet friend. And we both agreed that the problem with this exercise is that they are concerned about singular events and not processes i.e. sequential serial events. In other words,why should time be relevant to the expected outcome being studied? Anyway he observed,  "because that was the road less travelled, and that would make all the difference!" 

Ahhh Poets... What do they know? 

What if there are aliens? And they're here already?

  

  

   

TOP ECONOMIC GRAPH - USGS GROUNDWATER : There is No Fracking Water?

TOP ECONOMIC GRAPH  

USGS GROUNDWATER : 

So Where is the Fracking Water?
(Read More)

Imagine down the road one generation is going to have to decide between whether to use and spoil groundwater for fracking oil or irrigation and farming purposes, and thus food supply. Groundwater is a key ingredient in both processes. And looking at the above graph it is apparent that the amount being used for non-agricultural reasons has been rising over the past four decades, according to this USGS report. The full report is linked above for your study.

The other obvious concern that the chart brings out; how much groundwater is there? As the population and various commercial needs grow when does demand outstrip possible supply? Right now, we do not have or see any clear answers to these questions, but hopefully someone does have them before we reach that point. Then, of course, who will decide whether you eat or drive? Hmm...

So whether it's the extinction of pollinating bugs or the exhaustion of groundwater, it looks like farming is about to become much less productive in the years ahead, despite the growing number of mouths it will be expected to feed. And that's not even taking into account what effects may come from climate change - starting with less rainfall. 

One might add - so what's all the fracking excitement about?

Dr Peter G Kinesa
September 12, 2013 

You Decide!

#Bugonomics - What Butterflies Too?

Bugonomics - What Butterflies Too?

(Read More)

Visit this article's slideshow to view the varied beauty of this species

Imagine a world without butterflies - and poems, and romance, and dreams that touch the heart of destiny..

Since 1990, the EU butterfly population has been on the decline with implications that affects crops and resultant food production. And a 50% drop in grassland butterflies is significant because it is a key indicator of the state of bio-diversity. Remember  no bugs - no economy - and then food becomes an issue.

Not being in a position to substantiate these reports, we however sense there is some truth to the issue by virtue of many corroborations. Consider all the evidence regarding climate change as well; it becomes straightforward to conclude that as the climate swaggers about, other variables are sure to be effected. Bugs are no exception.

All this gets back to one principle of "Bugonomics" insofar-as non-financial metrics are critical indicators of macro-economic well-being and better identify concerns that would seriously impair economic viability. Just like a doctor who must go beyond the window-dressing by probing for underlying concerns with modern scientific tools.

In this case, the demise of butterflies and other bugs points us towards an understanding of the deeper causes. These causes are tied to bio-chemical farming technology used to enhance crop production to feed ever-expanding global populations whose growth has been supported and exacerbated by fossil fuels along with neo-classical economic theory. A theory that blindly encourages growth with no regard for its consequences.

At this juncture, we may falsely believe that we are winning the  "Bug Battle", but in the end the champions are sure to be different. And that should bug (sic) a lot of us!  

Dr. Peter G Kinesa  
August 30, 2013

We are the Champions!

   

ECONOMIC GRAPH OF THE DAY: UK Wildlife Index Decline (1968 -2010)

ECONOMIC GRAPH OF THE DAY: 

UK Wildlife Index Decline (1968 -2010)
(Read More)

 

To the point, forget about all the graphs, charts and illustrations that you were shown back in school by your economic, business and finance professors. Why? Because the most important ones are those they failed to show and tell you about and just how important they are to markets, GDP and economies. In fact, they are so important that they would turn every other economic thesis upside down - starting with Adam Smith's, Enquiries into The Wealth of Nations. 

Not going to say much more; other than, it is very clear that Smith and his subsequent CULT believers  have missed the point entirely, having no clue as to what "Wealth" really is - we leave the rest for to you to figure out.   

Dr. Peter G Kinesa
July 29, 2013

When bugs are gone, then what happens to GDP? 

 

JAPAN-- What if the water becomes contaminated?

JAPAN -- What if the water becomes contaminated? (read more - The New York Times)

What? Their water is radioactive?

Not just a passing concern nor high speculation, but a possibility that can be assigned some level of probability. Perhaps something you would not normally be concerned with when thinking about markets, however a wide-scale disaster of this sort could cause an unprecedented collapse in Japanese securities' markets. The nature of this disaster could make significant portions of the island nation just unlivable.

Anyway we remain skeptical about what authorities are disclosing and this lack of transparency,promptness and accuracy does not create a lot of confidence in competencies. We are assigning much higher levels of risk because we fear the unknown, unknowns that could emerge out of nowhere. Try to explain to clients why you didn't see this one coming,

Anyway, for sure, we are staying away from coastal properties as long-term investments. To be forewarned, is to be forearmed - invest wisely.

Dr Peter G Kinesa

July 27, 2013

ITS OK TO BE SMART

What's UP with Inflation?

What's UP with Inflation?

There is little doubt that the debate about how to calculate inflation will rage forever - and governments will always manipulate this calculation - and economists and bond markets seem to put the faith of the universe in this completely subjective and arbitrary number's calculation. Why? It is politically convenient - and as long as everyone believes it is the truth; perceptions are then realities, regardless.

So for the most part, we are cynical about this number but do our own calculations based on hard and soft commodity prices (ex-gold,) - because these are the driving inputs of the global economic machine and the numbers are less affected by political allocations and influences. It also ignores the value-added and services included in the CPI, as these items will be less relevant as resource scarcities take hold down the road.Without inputs, there are no outputs - that simple.

In the end, no method is without flaws, but it makes a whole a lot of sense to first, do your own rough calculations and to secondly, calculate the inflation numbers for economic inputs and as well as traditional outputs (CPI),  if you want to minimize the chances of being blind-sided by the Bond market.

One other secret -  preform these calculations based on geo-political regions and include population growth and hard and soft commodity reserves. Then the picture becomes a whole lot clearer. Then you can say to me the next time we meet...

What's up Doc?

Dr Peter G Kinesa

July 25, 2013

What we do not know - Can blind-side us!

PLATINUM WEALTH PARTNERS - BLOOMBERG, ALJAZEERA, PAUL KRUGMAN

PLATINUM WEALTH PARTNERS:

Week Ended July 21 2013

 DR. PETER G. KINESA'S 
INTERNATIONAL INSIGHTS

"PLATINUM WEALTH PARTNERS"

VISIT OUR WEBSITE 

PLATINUM WEALTH PARTNERS

www.pwa2100.blogspot.com

The Marc Faber Blog: Somewhere down the line we will have a Massive Wealth Destruction

Just a short post noting that Marc's 50% prediction is in line with what we suggest is a possible valuation adjustment in our July 17th comments on Paul Krugman's Blog - Prophecies of Maestrodamus.

Not a hard one to figure out as it is really just "present value mathematics" whereby if long 30 year bond rates double, then their market value dips by 50%. Very straightforward mathematics that no amount of economic theory nor policy measures can override as it is simply a hard conceptual constraint. Mathematics cannot be persuaded, legislated nor negotiated with - and that should come as no surprise to anyone.

Down the line, looks to be a scary turbulent road ahead. 

We will post more comments from this blog later on.

PLATINUM WEALTH PARTNERS

July 21, 2013

What waits down the line?

By every account, all negotiations with mathematics have resulted in a win-lose situation. Some things are just absolute.

Dr Peter G Kinesa

July 21, 2013  

Bloomberg BusinessWeek - The Social Media Bubble is Quietly Deflating

Just a few months back, you may recall, along with Jim Rogers, we raised concerns about Facebook and generally the whole social media industry, referring to it as a generational fad and having difficulty seeing how a sustainable business model could be developed. Moreover, whether such tools or derivatives could find useful and profitable transitions into business markets. Guess what? Looks like the markets are tuning into Mr Rogers and ourselves as VC (Venture Capital) funding has plummeted to 2% this past quarter.

As one insider notes; what a business - "thinking about how to make people click ads"  And that pretty well sums up the industry's "Critical Success Factor" and how you build any sort of Sustainable Competitive Advantage around it, remains a puzzle.

Anyway we still believe that the big ticket, high margin objects just simply requires good ole face to face contact -  a little of that human touch!

INVESTORS INSIGHTS - February 18, 2013  

JIM ROGERS - Facebook is not an Investment, it's a Waste of TIME  

PLATINUM WEALTH PARTNERS

July 20, 2013

Not a Happy Camper

Comparing the social media frenzy to the dot-com bubble may not be such a good analogy, albeit in both cases you can observe that common sense gave way to a strange fear of missed opportunity combined with unrealistic expectations. The other common ground was that object business measures, standards and principles no longer applied . Market history repeated again.

And for some strange reason this won't be the last time. Humans? Go Figure?

Dr Peter G Kinesa

July 20, 2013  

Bloomberg - Spanish 10-Year Bonds Decline as Italian Yield Rises to 4.48%

In light of our market alert, regarding Portugal's Bonds, earlier this week, along with the growing concern for adverse circumstances in Europe, even more focus is now being given to European Bond Markets. Market activity in these markets may now have greater bearing on the global financial system than US treasuries. No kidding?

Similar to Japan, bond values and rates in the US appear to be hand-cuffed at low levels for some time. Moreover, enjoying the reserve currency status allows the US to gather the loose liquidity in the global system and harbour its flight and fright capital, thereby easing any upward rate pressures. Plus, an interest rate increase state-side would be absolutely devastating to the US economy at this juncture - and just pour gas on a stumbling economy's fires. 

Underlying the European bond markets are chronic diseases that  show no signs of abating - in fact there is growing evidence to the contrary. Like Japan and Middle East countries, Europe suffers from a physical economic overcapacity issue that cannot be resolved by abstructionist economic measures. Limited and declining physical economic inputs can only lead to one result - declining economic outputs. All of which is made worse as populations grow and per capita output consumption ratios thusly sink even further. Bad "Real" News!

Particularly after Cyprus, we are seeing signs of desperate central bankers pulling out devious last stops to cure the terminal economic cancer. The markets in Greece, Spain, Italy, Ireland and Portugal are at the greatest risk of crashing global bond prices. They are "bonded" by a common concern with a staggering rippling potential affecting markets with traumatic head to toe  effects. 

Our main message here - this one ain't over yet; 'cause, "it ain't over, 'til its over"  

PLATINUM WEALTH PARTNERS

July 19, 2013

A Bonding Crisis - the future is yet to come...

While the rest of the world may think that the FED is the driver behind global rates, largely because of the US reserve currency status and its trading volumes - we are not so certain, and believe as Grandma use to say "the devil is in the details - at Lehman Bros?" And so when all hell breaks loose; something small and overlooked is often perpetrating the angst.

Of course, then there was Yogi's wisdom - a great "Bondplayer" too  

Dr. Peter G Kinesa

July 19, 2013

The New York Times 

The Prophecies of Maestrodamus

Paul Krugman

Comments:

"I know one thing; that I know nothing" Hmm. I think we could all learn from one of Socrates’ last thoughts - but you never know!

Still we could attribute much of our current mess to too many who believe they know - then later we find that even simple notions were somehow forgotten. Or a fog had set in. (- R. S. McNamara).

Despite what may be economic headlines today, Greenspan's legacy may be his contribution to our current low interest rate trap - that has lasted for much too long. Getting out of it could trigger a massive deflation of financial assets - causing an unprecedented ASSET VALUE WRITE-DOWN. Evaporating years of value in moments.

A mere 2% rise in rates, for example, could deflate financial assets by as much as 50% - wiping out the equity boxes of financial intermediaries and banks , while creating massive unfunded pension and insurance fund liabilities on the basis of marked to market accounting calculations. =ing HUGE liquidity CRUNCH.

Moreover, the total value of US federal debt could grow substantively with a mathematical pen stroke, which has little to do with deficits or economic theory and activity. And I don’t even want think about what could happen if rates should revert to levels over their historic mean; it would be devastating.

So it seems that the Maestro knew how get us into this trap, but did not know how to get us out of it - but then again "who knows?" And as far as we know, he's still on first...

INVESTORS' INSIGHTS

Juky 17, 2013

I don't know?

ALJAZEERA - (English) Worldwide PC sales keep sliding

Lenovo (China) Top PC Maker???

Bad news for everyone, except China as they take the leadership position in another market that has long been dominated by American makers for decades. Who do we blame this on? Management? Tablets? Consumers? Or China's low cost producer strategy for an industry where products are becoming commoditized, as it really does not take that much to do the reverse engineering. Again China is following a "national business strategy" much like Japan did from the 60's onwards in automotive and consumer electronics.

But the real issue is what good is the WTO? How does it ensure that everyone is on an equal playing field when labour, environmental, and health standards are barbaric is contrast to North America. Add to all that a fixed currency to the US dollar and this game becomes a one horse race.

But who loses big time? North American and European union and salaried workers. In fact, in America the real hourly wage, according to St Louis, FED statistics have not risen much since 1982! So, where are the unions???

Beyond all this meaning more doom and gloom for the ordinary American worker, here 's list of PC makers facing tougher times as this saturated market begins to consolidate. Smaller players will be forced to merge or simply fade away into the sunset - while margins face continued presures from commoditization.

TOP Five PC Makers
  41% (est) Market Share

Lenova
Hewlett Packard
Dell
Acer
Asus

INVESTORS' INSIGHTS

First Financial Insights

July 16, 2013 

Those were the days - "in our home towns... and they ain't coming back"

- Bruce Springstein