Over 1.5 Million International FOLLOWERS AND Readers have engaged our various digests and blogs providing insights on the "SEVEN BIG Es" - Earth, Economics, Environment, Energy, Exponentiation, Entropy, and Extinction, curated by our world renowned "Quantum Realonomist" - First Financial Insights Inc. - Dr. Peter G Kinesa
WORLD LEADING INSIGHTS
International LEADERS Calling Market Crashes Years Ahead
Second to None, Anywhere...
'Warned 2000 tech slide; predicted 2008 meltdown in 2007. Forecasted 2020 global economic collapse in 2011, AND NOW- BY 2050 - THE MOTHER OF ALL CRASHES"
To the point, forget about all the graphs, charts and illustrations that you were shown back in school by your economic, business and finance professors. Why? Because the most important ones are those they failed to show and tell you about and just how important they are to markets, GDP and economies. In fact, they are so important that they would turn every other economic thesis upside down - starting with Adam Smith's, Enquiries into The Wealth of Nations.
Not going to say much more; other than, it is very clear that Smith and his subsequent CULT believers have missed the point entirely, having no clue as to what "Wealth" really is - we leave the rest for to you to figure out. Dr. Peter G Kinesa July 29, 2013
THE BIG MAMA OF ALL CREDIT CRUNCHES This article reflects a Chinese financial system that is on the brink of a biblical credit collapse - "The Big Mama of all Credit Crunches" To be expected, from a system that operates on the outermost margins in every respect and oppresses its population in order to support a elite few who run and control the "party" (pun intended). An oppression that has been well documented by the Epoch Time; Nine Commentaries on the Communist Party,and many others. As history has proven regimes like this, (the former Soviet Union being a recent example) fall apart from within, due to inefficiencies, atrophy, and wasteful policies that are unsustainable physically, politically, socially and morally. Briefly, here is a short list of items that should draw deep concerns from all investors, businesses, economists and world leaders. Oppression of human rights, dignity, freedom of information and expression are the hallmarks of an evil totalitarian system leading to ruthless atrocities for which there is no accountability. We need to look no further than the controls that are placed over the Internet to see clear evidence of restrictive tactics over information and communication flows as indicators of a totaltarian attitude. Lack of financial transparency is pervasive to domestic, private and government accounting systems and numeric outputs. No faith, whatsoever, can be placed on any the financial or economic information generated by these entities. They are all students of the Bernie Madoff's School of Accounting - and we know, when unregulated, where that leads. China is desperate for non-renewable resources in order to sustain its inefficient economic system and unsustainable growth. Its simple self-evident strategy of exploiting it massive labour pool, to achieve huge pricing advantages on exported goods creating trade surpluses, then realizing billions in US treasuries, that are in turn used to buy resource based entities around the world is clear. China also perverts capitalism's principles, by using Sovereign Funds, that are not comparable to corporations in any way. They have no accountability to stakeholders, markets or financial measures of success - thereby, undermining all concepts of free, fair and open trade and related principles of comparative advantage. Where is Mr. Krugman when we really need him? Where is the Conscience of a Liberal? China's currency is also fixed to the US dollar, given it an unfair advantage in trade that allows it to maintain this economic-political strategy of labour exploitation and oppression, leading to the reserves of US currencies needed to secure supplies of non-renewable resources. It works to the party's primary advantage, with little trickle down to the people of the country. Who should complain? Not North America because it too benefits from the cheap exploited labour with lower cost good on the shelves at Walmart, Costco, Target and others, hence containing domestic inflation and low interest at the Fed and other Central Banks. The other big losers however have also been the hard-working American union members and middle class that forged the spirit and heartland of a great nation. Their jobs and way of life were traded away by these unsavoury business practices. Low interest rates also lead to high asset valuations in Western nations and can thus be tied to the cheap labour exploitation of millions and massive loss of American jobs - so everyone (elites?) had or has an interest in maintaining the status quo of these trade practices, even though they are definitely unsustainable while benefiting so very few on both sides of the Great Wall. Water shortages are becoming headline news; the importing of water is becoming essential to feeding the Chinese economic machine. Pollution, unbridled and unregulated economic growth are the drivers behind this need. Water and oil are the two essentials of modern industrial-consumer complexes, shortages as Jim Rogers so astutely noted will lead to wars. There are no reasons to doubt Mr. Rogers conclusions. No reasons. Add further, the climatic chaos created by the growth economic mantra and you do nothing but reduce the supplies of fresh water through pollution, warming and upheaval of the natural systems of the planet. Without fresh water supplies, you cannot feed people, armies or politicians - the final outcome is not hard to figure out. Gorbachev recognized that the Soviet Union was doomed and could not compete with the West because it did not have the accounting measures to manage responsibility centres at all levels of enterprise. Without management accounting measures, you cannot manage what is not measured; leading to sloth, inefficiencies, moral bankruptcy and wide-spread corruption. Ultimately, the Soviet Union's system collapsed and Glasnost was needed to bring transparency, democracy and accountability to its economic and political systems. Today, there is growing evidence that the Chinese system also suffers from the lack of accountability along with the management and financial yardsticks needed to properly manage its economic, social and environmental activities. Ghost cities, tell us that there is little expectation of economic payback or return on investment for such projects. Pollution pervades all aspects of life, leading to huge long-term health and environmental concerns; eventually they impede all forms of industrial and agricultural activity. Add to this, the poor management of national finances such as, gold purchases at historically high prices, over-exposure to US treasuries and above market purchases of resource companies by Sovereign Funds, are a few of the disconcerting practices that infer a lack of financial controls and understanding. Synthesizing the analysis, we should bear in mind a number of considerations: One, at the meta-economic level the hard constraints of a finite planet will prevail on exponential economic growth in resource depletion and over-population. No nation can escape the consequential pending disaster to occur when the fragile balance of populations, resources and the bio-sphere is broken and lost forever. Two, the business cycle of expansion and contraction comes into play sooner or later, with its unavoidable reversion to the mean theory. Thus, when China faces this mathematical reversion, after extreme growth rates - the other side of the equation could be just as powerful to the detrimental contraction side of activities . Three, leverage is a useful and beneficial way to spark accelerated growth making everything look easy at the time. But, the when the wheels come off, the downward push is even faster and harder. Every generation, it seems, must relearn the perils of debt and how their related bubbles have created untold pain and suffering when the party came to an end. Four, societies where oppression and corruption are everyday parts of life, with little in the way of transparency and accountability, do not survive. Internal and external forces historically come to bear, that results in dramatic social, political and economic changes - this is a law of nature that returns systems back to the their equilibrium. In China's case; this could be termed as a return to a balance between its cultural Ying and Yang! What we see then is a system that has many deep troubles, where possible unrests and breakages could occur at any moment, with its credit leverage fuelling a " The Big Mama of all Credit Crunches" that changes and brings about a long overdue Glasnost to a nation that has been operating far beyond its equilibriums of Ying and Yang in so many respects. That, by rules of nature, must revert to the mean. The rest of the world should be prepared for major adjustments when this dragon lies slain by the consequences of its unsustainable beliefs and practices. To be forewarned, is to be thusly forearmed. Dr Peter G Kinesa May 10, 2013
When the US military realizes and states that climate change is one of the greatest threats to security we should be very concerned. Particularly, when we considered that often coined oxymoron " Military Intelligence" . Think about how much it takes these guys to figure things out, after all these years? Enough said, and let's have Admiral Samuel Locklear tell us about their profound "Ah Ha" moment - I don't want to rain on their parade. Dr Peter G Kinesa April 15, 2013
"Folks, you will never believe what I am about to tell you... "
China Feels Inflation, CPI Spikes Before getting into the deeper issues - the first thing to put on the table is the CPI number itself. Who believes any financial number coming out of China? Who believes that an economy can grow at 5,7 or 10% without experiencing any inflation? Who believes that an economy with excessive liquidity can hold prices down? Then there's the growing need to import more and more commodities... well, you can decide this one. The real concern is whether currency games are going to become the new form of protectionism - a new form of trade war. With so many countries debasing their currencies - global inflation is certain to follow as more funny sovereign paper will be needed to buy real things. Now if we take the abstracts out of all this and remember that we are past peak everything - prices of all commodities are sure to climb dramatically. Some will be more intense than others. Chinese inflation - you can bet the farm on it. But it is the new protectionism we are most concerned about and the trade of cheap, oppressed labour for scarcer resources. Who will level the playing field now? Dr Peter G Kinesa April 14, 2013
Once , a long time ago, the Artic was as warm as the Everglades; ask any geologist. By all accounts, we are prematurely heading back that way at a rapid rate. Climate denial will not stop the existential feedback systems that warm the planet taking human enterprise to its knees. We cannot just click our heels and return back to Kansas. The neo-classic economic fairy tale is coming to a very dreadful end. We are melting under its growth mantra.
When it comes to social phenomena you cannot apply the disciplines, logic, devices, rules and observations of science - these are concrete constructs. Social phenomena deals with abstract constructs but uses scientific methods to create stories (a.k.a. Theories) about what reality is - whereby, those who are most persuasive will form the accepted consensus of a perception that is the social reality. But, it has nothing to do with what reality actually is. So Jimmy is right, the US dollar wins by default until the social perception changes and we move to a more persuasive perception of what reality is - and that change in perception can happen at any moment. So, its always far better to be lucky than to be smart. A dose of reality? Dr Peter G Kinesa March 11, 2013 P.S. You see what us smart guys know is that all currencies eventually gravitate to a debasement of zero, as their underlying geographical resources and infrastructures expire. That is deterministic physics. However, quantum physics now overrides this theory, with its random coexisting realities - so it is again; logically, still all about luck. Science? PK.
Marc Faber - "EVERYONE SHOULD OWN A PIEROGI FARM" You can probably tell by now that we have a little bit of a sense of humour around here. It was Churchill who once said, "a joke is a very serious matter" so we take his thought to heart and use it to uncover perspective and a sense of sanity. Anyway, we are having a little fun with this story as we received over one thousand email enquiries from folks wanting to contact our realtor in South Kiev for his farm listings. What 's more revealing is the breakdown of the top five countries we received enquiries from:
Greece - 23.4%
Newfoundland (Canada) - 17.4%
Italy - 12.6 %
America - 8.6%
Japan - 6.9%
Next week we are going to start selling global retail franchises - "Faber's Farm Fresh Pierogies" - billions served. Have a great day! Dr Peter G Kinesa March 8, 2013
Marc selling, and Me (inside cooking) at Pilot Mobile Outlet
Worth watching Marc dodge Maria's skeptical questions in this CNBC interview. We are not being as analytical as Dr Kinesa's in his post today about the mathematics and logic of everything. In fact, we go along with Faber and Kinesa foreseeing stormy markets ahead as we plow through this "Ice Age " in valuations trapped by rates being too low, for too long - with no easy way out of the trap. When you listen to Dr Doom and the best bets he can put forward are the Ukraine and Viet Nam; you get a real sense that things are pretty tough. He does like the resource sector, but does not point to any specifics. Technology stocks are also on his watch list - have consumer gadgets and applications peaked? Who knows as consumers, according to recent studies, certainly do not seem to be as concerned about the environment anymore - that puts a damper on green tech as well. Oh well, who has a retail pierogi farm or franchise for sale? First Financial Insights March 4, 2013
Pierogi Farms Cheap! - Exceptional South Kiev Investment Properties
Place your bets! For some reason I think that both numbers are much higher - particularly when you talk to anyone who shops regularly for groceries. Governments everywhere are fixing the CPI number in order to keep interest rates low and manage a "silent bail-out of the Banks" and to keep the Rich and Bankers solvent. These high jobless numbers will have very serious political implications shortly. Expect a European Spring or Summer with massive protests, strikes and mayhem. Take Portugal, where unemployment for those under 25, now approaches an UNBELIEVABLE - 40 percent. This is another powder keg country,suffering from years of bad growth economics, that platformed overpopulation, climate chaos, and rapid resource depletion and misuses. The last time this happened, some funny looking short guy with a big mouth came to power when all seemed so hopeless. People get desperate. The Euro Zone, like the Middle East, is also starting to transform itself into one big Nauru Paradigm - and you can't draw blood from stones, like these. Visit Nauru - see for yourself. What a mess. Dr Peter G Kinesa March 7, 2013
When times are desperate...people change...never forget! BTW: They are not voting for a new Pope
This is exactly what I said two days ago - is Marc reading our posts? - You betcha he is. Anyway whether its Faber, Gross or Kinesa making this somewhat obvious statement of fact, the main point I believe that needs to be emphasized, is the value of the liability in physical terms. Using OIL as a surrogate for dollars, there is 1.200 trillion known barrels of reserves, globally. Using $90 a barrel as the unit value, then the total reserves equates to nearly $108 trillion. Meaning to repay all the US'$s debts today, would require the use of nearly all physical global oil reserves,;this does not include provisions for any interest carrying charges,increased demand or new debt. Now you can see the big problem we got here. What's left over to run the economy now and tomorrow, once all this US debt is repaid. NOTHING. Moving to another planet is not a solution, nor should we expect a Santa Claus magic invention to save the day. This is not a movie. Thus, we can either make drastic cuts in demand -even 2% a year compounded could get us there - or we face a future, where global hostilities and unrest will dominate every waking moment. Sleep and anti-depressent drugs offer counter market opportunities. Dr Peter G Kinesa March 3, 2013
Marc Faber : Buy Gold To Protect Against The Next Crisis Oh My Gosh! Why all the Bugginess over Gold? It does nothing for our real economy, nothing to assure our on-going subsistence and expends currency from the real wealth of the planet. A net negative to planetary wealth. Marc in this telephone interview is again taking on a senior role at the Pearly Gates, by saying or suggesting two things. Gold is insurance against systemic risk. And investors should hold up to 25% of their portfolio assets in gold. There is no way on earth that he can predict or state this just based on past events. The future is filled with a vast number of permutations, as regards the possibilities and possibilities of outcomes. One is that the price gold collapses more that everything else for any number of reasons. To say gold is some form of insurance against anything is - JUST PLAIN STUPID! That said,obviously the 25% gold allocation is also not so wise for non-speculative portfolios. When the crap really hits the fan, folks are going to be thinking more about gas, water, food and medicine. Things get pretty basic. But let's not get into the prediction game here. Dr Peter G Kinesa February 26, 2013
" Peter, Gold Is Insurance Against Systemic Risk!" - GOD
In early February, I finally got a week off and had the opportunity to fly back to visit my old Alma mater, the world famous Nauru School of Keynesian Economics. Named, of course, after one of its most famous students and, founded by Adam Smith, long before his tenure in Scotland. Many of the world's leading Keynesian Economists, and Economic Nobel Prize Winners, have passed through its arches of higher(sic) learning
Anyway, here's me on the beach with a few of my co-ed friends and colleagues, enjoying the refreshing weather and tropical views. Also, there is a photo shot of my good friend from school, Dr Nigel Tapatughamans, fishing on the beach - who for years was the country's leading Keynesian Economist; and was also once considered for a Nobel Prize, when Nauru was a working miracle. Indeed, not so long ago, Nauru had the highest income and wealth per capita in the world.
Seriously, there is a very important message here that should not escape raw wisdoms.The economic history of Nauru is a lesson of utmost meaning, for it foreshadows the fate of the larger planet that continues to apply insane Keynesian Economic ideas, despite real physical and mathematical constraints. Just Nuts - Watch some of these videos below, they should be a mandatory part of curriculum's in all schools of business and economics. Better yet; all schools. As it demonstrates, in no uncertain terms, where the human enterprise is headed globally, should it continue along the conventional economic path. However, in all likelihood it may not even attain the simple paradise of Nauru; as geo-political tensions could interrupt even this tranquil destination. So please, please take the time to view one or more of these videos and explore further how one small nation magnifies the trajectory of the human condition should we continue to foolishly believe and practice the same old theories that many of us learned at Nauru's World-Famous "School of Keynesian Economics" BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY, pass, tweet, share, post and show this video archive to as many friends, families, colleagues, strangers and foes as you can. So that they too, may join a larger awakening and understanding, of where all this Keynesian economics and unbridled consumptive growth leads us. For these are certainly not the stairways to heaven that we have all bought into...
All the Very Best,
Dr. Peter G Kinesa
February 17, 2013 P.S. This histroric post was actually the first ever blogged by First Financial Insights,(May 27, 2011) defining a theme that focuses on an economic reality inclusive of physics and exponential mathematics: not hypothetical abstractions built within subjective contexts - with the clear view of avoiding the outcomes of Nauru and Easter Island - with the clear view of sustaining the human enterprise for as long as possible - with the clear view of avoiding the premature human extinction, that Keynesian Economics will ultimately lead us to. And then you judge, as we let the facts and numbers speak for themselves.
Mother Earth asks us one simple thing: PLEASE STAND BY ME...
