MARKET ALERT - China in Trouble - Platinum Wealth Partners

Thanks to our Affiliate - Platinum Wealth Partners

 

Default of a Chinese Bond:Isolated event or the beginning of something bigger?

It finally happened. A Chinese domestic bond has defaulted. It was the first default since the Chinese central bank (PBOC) started regulating the market in 1997. The unlucky company was Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy Science and Technology (Chaori). The major question though is this a sign of healthy maturing market or the beginning of a major problem?

If you had to choose allow a bond to default, Chaori was certainly a prime candidate. First it is small. It has only 1,500 employees. Second it is a private company, not a large state owned firm. Third, it is in the struggling solar industry with substantial over capacity. Fourth, its issues were well known. Some sort of default was expected. Trading in the bonds was suspended last June. At that time they were trading at only 50% of their face value. The total issue is $160 million and the missed payment was only $15 million.

China’s premier Li Kequiang warned that Chaori was not the last. He said on 12^th March last week that future defaults of financial products are “unavoidable”. He pointed out that allowing defaults was a natural part of the financial deregulation process. There is also the issue of moral hazard, which the authorities are trying to address. In essence if you don’t allow companies to default, the markets assumes that they will never take place. With the certainty that companies cannot go under, investors will continue to pour money into risky assets.

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   What Me Worry?

 

Our bets are that this is just the beginning, as it was long 

overdue. There are so many cracks in the portfolio that it can 

only get worse. Recently we observed the fall in copper price, a BIG signal that the real economy is suffering. As  goes China - so goes the global economy. Put this at the top of your watch-list - as the walls come tumbling down

Platinum Wealth Partners

March 19, 2014 

This is not looking good - for anyone, anywhere.

.

Dr Peter G Kinesa

March 19, 2014

Marc Faber's Highly-Unprofessional Know-It-All Interview

Marc Faber's Highly- Unprofessional Know-It-All Interview 

  Thai TV, September 20, 2013

Their Business Greats Tiger Team

There is little doubt the Marc has a fairly good grasp of the technical issues related to the global financial situatIon. Whether he is right or wrong is another matter. He conveys a strong sense of certitude with regard to his thoughts and opinions. Such an attitude should be expected from an investment promoter. 

The Fed is in a bind and there are signs that the QE program is faltering. As he points out, the ten year treasuries have risen from a low of about 1.5% a year ago, to almost to 3% today. As he says, "that's a 100% increase." Marc believes that the Fed will continue with its QE program with little; if any, tapering for some time, in an meager effort to hold down  low long-bond rates. By now, everyone is aware that a surge in these rates would be devastating to the global financial system and the overbought stock markets. We go along with his view.

He also makes reference to the absurdity of Keynesian and Neo-Keynesian (Turbocharged) economists - the latter apparently proposes fiscal deficits of $5 Trillion to resolve the US's economic problems. While we agree that such a move is unconscionable, Dr. Doom provides us with little insight into what remedies he would alternatively propose.

This lack of a deep understanding of the physical existential forces driving the world's economy is apparent in most of this interview. The very fact that Marc entirely discounts, any and all, participation or insights from academia, and concurrently holds business opinions and views, as the ultimate source of a monopolistic truth, speaks volumes as to the depth and objective quality of Marc's thinking, information, sources and analysis. This negativity further suggests a"know-it-all" attitude bias that tears apart the speaker's credibility, leading us to distrust the balance, integrity and substance of all else that was asserted. To be short, we were taken aback by the utter short-sightedness and arrogance of this remark and related thoughts.

This, of course, deepens our concern and skepticism about such pundits who operate with multiple narrow-minded agendas.  We would prefer a more open, professional approach to information, sources and thinking. Similar to the philosophical thoughts of Socrates: "the only true wisdom is in knowing that you know nothing." And maybe Abraham Lincoln's approach would also be useful to opening a wider discourse of opposing or alternative views for better decisions. Lincoln recognized that all of us have our limitations; so he sought the insights, company and advice of seven or eight folks smarter than himself. Hmm. Maybe even an academic or two?

Marc, we fully recognize and believe that you are entitled to your opinions regarding all these useless academics  - but then again, what do we know?

Dr Peter G Kinesa
September 26, 2013  

Our Humble Academic Bonehead Team   

              

  

FIRST FINANCIAL INSIGHTS: CREDIT BUBBLE BIGGER THAN 2008

FIRST FINANCIAL INSIGHTS: CREDIT BUBBLE BIGGER THAN 2008: 

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CREDIT BUBBLE BIGGER THAN 2008 (Also Read Recent "The Telegraph" Article )  How could credit circumstances be worse than 2008? Did we not le...

"Why would you ever trade government guaranteed bonds for highly-levered, riskier, de facto bank equity that poses as a debt instrument? Is there a smell of personal interest here?" 

International Bank Regulator - 2013

Did you ever wonder who was selling all those long treasury bonds to the Fed? Where was all that money going? Bonds? Investments? Bonuses?  Well, gleaning from the content, in both the FFI and The Telegraph articles, the money trail looks pretty clear. Here is what we make of it, in a nutshell.

Big Banks sell their bonds to the Fed, then take the proceeds and buy other Banks' debt, that may be converted to equity should the other Bank's ratio fall, say, below 10%. An event that is almost certain to occur once rates spike upwards and all the Banks have to mark to market monetary assets. Marked to market accounting of these assets is sure to result in write-offs that correspondingly affects each Bank's capital structures. These debt instruments are simply a clever way to inject capital into the banks, so that they remain solid even as the rest of us suffer when interest rates rise.

This is also what you call a "Country Club Bail-Out' that quietly escapes the attention and scrutiny of  the media, pundits, public and, of course, our brilliant politicians. So under the radar, Uncle Ben is shelling-out up to $85 Billion monthly, to shore up Banks prior to the much anticipated interest-rate driven write-offs - "without congressional authorization." Nice trick. What's worse? Even if you explained this simple shell game to those political wizards, sadly there is no guarantee they would show even a slight flicker of understanding. 

For the stability of the financial system this is, however, a good move and should avoid the recording of losses by Banks provided that the conversion price provides for an equal dollar for dollar exchange of securities. Afterwards though, the capital positions of these Banks could be exposed to market fluctuations - so it is still fraught with risk issues down the road.

Banksters should also be personally happy with this short-term bail-out insurance, provided to protect their loans, businesses and  huge bonus entitlements  Who loses? Well, in the end it's the taxpayers who are quietly bailing out the Banks, without anyone being the wiser simply because they are doing it ahead of time with an invisible financial wand. Real estate will also get clobbered, unless owners have hedged their positions; say, by shorting long bonds. And long-term the economy and future generations will get to pay the biggest price!    

Just clever, sneaky or magical finance? Or fraudulent tricks? Hmm.

Dr Peter G Kinesa
September 21, 2013  

The Real QE Magic... 
Is it DEBT or EQUITY? 


   

The Marc Faber Blog Childish Remarks: "The FED Asset Purchase Disaster?"

The Marc Faber Blog : Childish Remarks -The Asset Purchase programme of the Fed has been a complete Disaster

Doctor Faber's conclusions are first premature and more than likely wrong. 

In fact, it will be difficult to measure how effective Fed policy has been or will be as history has yet to unfold. Had Uncle Ben not implemented this program, then interest rates no doubt would be much higher than they are today. There are a lot of very nervous long-bond holders who were obviously more than happy to pass their holdings back to the Fed. Everyone is living in fear of a sharp spike in the long rates that would absolutely clobber the principal market value of these bonds.

But QE is not just about keeping rates low, it is also a crafty way to hold asset values in place, including the equity market. This may actually be its main purpose. The last thing the Fed and Obama needs is to have huge bond losses realized and recorded by banks, portfolios, and other financial intermediaries.

Such losses would vacuum up all the liquidity in the repo, bond and money markets faster than Lehman's 2008 debacle, as well as knocking the proverbial crap out of their respective equity boxes. Think about it - this prevention is moping up about 40 billion (possibly more) monthly in marked-to-market accounting losses that would be caused by sharp rate  increases.

Like the Fed we are holding back a few cards here, but in all likelihood, there is more to the Fed's QE policy actions than meets the eye - and Marc should be a little more careful with his remarks - they come across as premature and childish! 

And that's being kind.

Dr Peter G Kinesa 
August 28, 2013 

Marked to QE Market

Uncle Ben's Converted Losses 

                

CLIMATE CHANGE - #China's Economy Overheated

CLIMATE CHANGE 
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CHINA'S ECONOMY OVERHEATED

Sometimes a pictures can tell us more than all the numbers and words combined together, as evidenced by our captioned photographic gem. China is experiencing its worst heat wave in 140 years, while the economic measures continue to move it on the path of unbridled growth, that contaminates the water and environment to the point where arable land for the nation of 1.4 billion people is also rapidly contracting. Without resources, lets not forget, there can be no economic outputs.

So do you think that there may be something wrong with our global economic doctrine? Can it be sustained? Perhaps this picture has a clue to these questions' answers.

Dr Peter G Kinesa

August 5, 2013

JAPAN-- What if the water becomes contaminated?

JAPAN -- What if the water becomes contaminated? (read more - The New York Times)

What? Their water is radioactive?

Not just a passing concern nor high speculation, but a possibility that can be assigned some level of probability. Perhaps something you would not normally be concerned with when thinking about markets, however a wide-scale disaster of this sort could cause an unprecedented collapse in Japanese securities' markets. The nature of this disaster could make significant portions of the island nation just unlivable.

Anyway we remain skeptical about what authorities are disclosing and this lack of transparency,promptness and accuracy does not create a lot of confidence in competencies. We are assigning much higher levels of risk because we fear the unknown, unknowns that could emerge out of nowhere. Try to explain to clients why you didn't see this one coming,

Anyway, for sure, we are staying away from coastal properties as long-term investments. To be forewarned, is to be forearmed - invest wisely.

Dr Peter G Kinesa

July 27, 2013

ITS OK TO BE SMART

What's UP with Inflation?

What's UP with Inflation?

There is little doubt that the debate about how to calculate inflation will rage forever - and governments will always manipulate this calculation - and economists and bond markets seem to put the faith of the universe in this completely subjective and arbitrary number's calculation. Why? It is politically convenient - and as long as everyone believes it is the truth; perceptions are then realities, regardless.

So for the most part, we are cynical about this number but do our own calculations based on hard and soft commodity prices (ex-gold,) - because these are the driving inputs of the global economic machine and the numbers are less affected by political allocations and influences. It also ignores the value-added and services included in the CPI, as these items will be less relevant as resource scarcities take hold down the road.Without inputs, there are no outputs - that simple.

In the end, no method is without flaws, but it makes a whole a lot of sense to first, do your own rough calculations and to secondly, calculate the inflation numbers for economic inputs and as well as traditional outputs (CPI),  if you want to minimize the chances of being blind-sided by the Bond market.

One other secret -  preform these calculations based on geo-political regions and include population growth and hard and soft commodity reserves. Then the picture becomes a whole lot clearer. Then you can say to me the next time we meet...

What's up Doc?

Dr Peter G Kinesa

July 25, 2013

What we do not know - Can blind-side us!