#URGENT:#ARCTIC SEA #ICE GONE IN TWO MONTHS

Good Afternoon Folks

Just so you know and don't get blindsided by events.

   'more heat will accumulate in the Arctic Ocean, threatening that the methane hydrates tipping point will get crossed."  

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ARCTIC SEA ICE GONE IN TWO MONTHS

All I can say is that we are in a heap of trouble - Where 's the media coverage? Government? NGO's?

This is an all hands on deck matter and we are quickly running out of time. Someone needs to sound the horn. 

This is the biggest crisis humanity has ever faced; we are asleep at the switch - maybe we don't know where it is?

Best Regards

TM

ALSO, SEE " THE IMPORTANCE OF ARCTIC SEA LIFE " BELOW

Arctic sea ice could disappear completely within two months' time

Arctic sea ice fell by 3.239 million km² in extent in 25 days (i.e. from July 1 to 25, 2020). Melting will likely continue for another two months. If it continues on its current trajectory, the remaining 6.333 million km² of Arctic sea ice could disappear completely within two months' time.

The fall in extent over the next two months' time may not remain as as steep as it was in July, yet the sea ice still could disappear completely. One reason for this is that, over the years, sea ice thickness has been declining even faster than extent. The rapid decline in sea ice thickness is illustrated by the sequence of images below.

The image on the right further illustrates that sea ice is getting very thin, which threatens the latent heat tipping point to get crossed. 

Sea currents and the Coriolis force will make that the influx of warm, salty water into the Arctic Ocean will continue. With no buffer of sea ice left underneath the surface of the sea ice to absorb incoming ocean heat, more heat will accumulate in the Arctic Ocean, threatening that the methane hydrates tipping point will get crossed.

The navy.mil animation below was run on July 27, 2020, and shows sea ice thickness over 30 days (last 8 frames are forecasts for July 28 - August 4, 2020).

Here's another indication that the buffer is disappearing fast. North of Greenland and of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, some 700 km from the North Pole, sea ice is disappearing, precisely where the thickest sea ice used to be located.

High greenhouse gas levels are causing high temperatures over the Arctic and high ocean temperatures. 

On July 25, 2020, sea surface temperatures in the Arctic Ocean were as high as 20.8°C or 69.4°F (at the green circle on above image).

At that same location, on July 22, 2020, sea surface temperatures in the Arctic Ocean were as much as 17°C or 30.5°F higher than the daily average during the years 1981-2011.

This location is where the Pechora River flows into the Barents Sea (the green circle pointed at by the white arrow on above image).

Distortion of the jet stream is causing more extreme weather, resulting in the recent lengthy heatwave over Siberia that has heated up the water of rivers flowing into the Arctic Ocean.

Ominously, a cyclone appears to be developing over the Arctic Ocean, as illustrated by the image on the right. 

Underneath on the right is a forecast for August 7, 2020, showing rain over the North Pole. 

In summary, Arctic sea ice may disappear completely over the next two months, and there are at least five reasons why this could occur:

• Low Arctic sea ice extent;
• Low Arctic sea ice thickness;
• High ocean temperature;
• High greenhouse gas levels and high temperatures over the Arctic;
• Distorted jet stream causing extreme weather such as storms resulting in sea ice collapse.

The situation is dire and calls for immediate, comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan.

Links

• NSIDC Arctic sea ice

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews

• Polar Portal - sea ice volume

http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume

• NASA Worldview

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov

• Arctic Hit By Ten Tipping Points

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2020/04/arctic-hit-by-ten-tipping-points.html

• Fast Path to Extinction

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2020/06/fast-path-to-extinction.html

• 2020 Siberian Heatwave continues

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2020/06/2020-siberian-heatwave-continues.html

• Climate Plan

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

IMPORTANCE OF ARCTIC SEA ICE 

Good Evening Folks; 

Here is a peer-reviewed recent paper written by Dr. Guy R McPherson, published on July 25, 2020, that among other things, corroborates and affirms the consequences of Arctic Sea Ice melting as set out in the Arctic News'report in the previous email.

  The Role of Conservation Biology in Understanding the Importance of Arctic Sea Ice  

  https://opastonline.com/wp-content /2020/07/the-role-of-conservation-biology-in-understanding-the-importance-of-arctic-sea-ice-eesrr-20-.pdf

  Abstract 

The transdisciplinary nature of conservation biology is pivotal to understanding the concept of near-term human extinction. The rate of environmental change impacts the habitat of all organisms, and loss of habitat underlies extinction. These concepts apply to all species, including Homo sapiens. The ongoing and expected rates of environmental change indicate human extinction in the near term, with loss of Arctic sea ice an important driving force. 

  

 Dr. Guy R McPherson

--

T. A McNeil

CEO and Founder 

First Financial Insights Inc.

#YALE: #Arctic Sea Ice Could Face Worst Losses On Record

HIGHEST PRIORITY - PLEASE SHARE

 SEE YALE STUDY BELOW 

"Temperatures in the Siberian Arctic reached record averages in June, with some areas seeing rises of as much as 10C (18F), according to EU data.

The Arctic is believed to be warming twice as fast as the global average."

BBC News, July 10, 2020

WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE TEMPERATURE RISES 5 DEGREES C?

 This is clearly not good news as the loss of the Arctic Sea ice by 2030 or earlier is expected to raise the global average temperature by another 5-6 degrees* Celsius; potentially putting us up to 7-8 degrees C over the 1750 baseline.  These numbers are becoming comparable to the Permian Extinction that occurred nearly 250 million years ago.

THE PERMIAN EXTINCTION

*Siberian Arctic reports temperatures 10 degrees higher than last year; curvilinear increase pattern already.

  "greenhouse gases in the model until ocean surface temperatures in the tropics had risen by 10 degrees Celsius (20 degrees Fahrenheit), the conditions driven by the global warming that was occurring at the time."

Read  More -Mongabay

WHO SURVIVES?

-- 

Moreover, as the ice melts; methane is released unabated  -  making the Arctic the driver of global climate change and not just a passenger on the train into the abyss.

"As the various Arctic climate feedbacks show, we are fast approaching the stage when climate change will be playing the tune for us while we stand by and watch helplessly, with our reductions in CO2 emissions*having no effect in the face of, say, runaway emissions of methane.'   Read  More

Peter Wadham

* this, of course, makes clean, alternative and renewable energy sources completely redundant

Loss of the Arctic ice would also cause the Greenland ice sheet to melt and  Scientists estimate this would raise sea levels by 20 feet.* This would be a disaster for coastal cities such as NewYork, New Orleans, Miami, and Los Angeles among many others. It would also bring about an unprecedented economic collapse and with it various social and political malignancies.

Naturally agricultural and fishery products will be profoundly impacted leading to serious short and long-term food shortages. Expect natural resource wars as a consequence  - possibly nuclear - as everyone including governments become more desperate.

*Should the Antarctic Continental Icecap also melt it is estimated that sea levels would rise 200 feet; however, that would likely be the least of our problems.

Furthermore, many nuclear power stations are located near the ocean shores and would be in considerable peril. There are over 450 nuclear plants in the world and those near these ocean shorelines should be promptly risk assessed by governments as to the consequences of rising sea levels and shut down and decommissioned if the exposure to an imminent disaster is too great. This naturally puts another nail in the coffin for any future expansion of this industry under exponential and abrupt climate change conditions or other circumstances.

OR OTHER CIRCUMSTANCES

At the same time, recent scientific research indicates and confirms that we are already in the midst of the sixth mass extinction and ecological collapse with 100's more vertebrates at-risk. Given the evidence related to the further Arctic melting and the corresponding release of methane, we will face runaway climate change that, as noted above, falls outside of any possible human control by way of CO2 - hence, these at-risk species would also be doomed.  This thereby causes a domino effect that will cause other even more adaptive species to go extinct-ultimately leading to the extinction of all large mammalian vertebrates, in short order, given the rapidity of the exponential climate changes and ecological collapse.  

Vertebrates on the brink as indicators of biological annihilation and the sixth mass extinction

"The ongoing sixth mass species extinction is the result of the destruction of component populations leading to eventual extirpation of entire species. Populations and species extinctions have severe implications for society through the degradation of ecosystem services. Here we assess the extinction crisis from a different perspective. We examine 29,400 species of terrestrial vertebrates and determine which are on the brink of extinction because they have fewer than 1,000 individuals. There are 515 species on the brink (1.7% of the evaluated vertebrates). Around 94% of the populations of 77 mammal and bird species on the brink have been lost in the last century. Assuming all species on the brink have similar trends, more than 237,000 populations of those species have vanished since 1900. We conclude the human-caused sixth mass extinction is likely accelerating for several reasons. First, many of the species that have been driven to the brink will likely become extinct soon. Second, the distribution of those species highly coincides with hundreds of other endangered species, surviving in regions with high human impacts, suggesting ongoing regional biodiversity collapses. Third, close ecological interactions of species on the brink tend to move other species toward annihilation when they disappear—extinction breeds extinctions. Finally, human pressures on the biosphere are growing rapidly, and a recent example is the current coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic, linked to wildlife trade. Our results reemphasize the extreme urgency of taking much-expanded worldwide actions to save wild species and humanity’s crucial life-support systems from this existential threat. " 

PNAS - Gerardo Ceballos, Paul R. Ehrlich, and Peter H. Raven

June 10, 2020

The melting of the Arctic ice field is the greatest emergency and challenge that humanity has ever faced in its short history; previous world wars, space exploration, and a missile crisis - pale profoundly in comparison. The urgency is unprecedented because if we fail to deal with this very soon - then we lose any chance of mitigating exponential climate impacts and that could then turn the current sixth mass extinction into another truly Permian event quickly destroying over 95% of life on this planet.  No vertebrate species will have dispensation from such consequences.

For decades we have known that at some point we would have to face that the challenge and urgency of this situation - yet we did nothing?. Call it cognitive dissonance, human nature, procrastination, politics, or just plain stupid- it doesn't matter what term or explanation is used; there are now no other options - the grim reaper is already at our door and the urgency has never been greater...  

 YALE STUDY

By Bob Henson | Monday, July 20, 2020

Baked by midsummer sun,

 Arctic sea ice could face 

worst losses on record

A period of tranquil weather paves the 

way for potential trouble later this summer.

READ MORE

T.A.McNeil, BAdmin, CMA, CA

CEO&FOUNDER

FIRST FINANCIAL INSIGHTS INC