#TIME - Bugonomics - Now it's Honey Bees!

TIME - Bugonomics - Now it's Honey Bees!

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A few weeks back we highlighted a graph illustrating the decline of wildlife and bugs in the UK, since 1968 - it was our economic graph of the week. Wherein the term "Bugonomics" was also coined for posterity. Our point then and still is - Economists place too much emphasis on the abstract measures of wealth, such as GDP and CPI, and not enough on the key metrics associated with the real physical wealth of the planet. Blame them all, right back to Adam Smith. 

Compare this to your doctor's assessment based on how well you are dressed during appointments - not on any other diagnostic measures that probe into the physical state of your body. It would be a small consolation being well-dressed for your premature funeral. See the point? That's why we believe the field of "Bugonomics" is destined to replace Keynesian and other neo-classical theories. It is clearly more scientific.

So we applaud TIME magazine's article on "Honey Bees" for bringing forward this salient economic issue. For it drives home the idea that without these bees our way of life and existence may be in jeopardy. And that's just one bug! Unfortunately, we can only link you to the beginning of the article, but it should be enough to get the point across. 

In summary, we emphasize that bugs can go on when our economies don't; but our economies would cease if bugs should ever perish. In fact, we speculate matters will be much worse for us if they do. By the way, all along the economy would be growing at a robust pace, and we should all look pretty good too!

So when will Harvard, MIT, Oxford or Princeton ask, "Why don't we have someone teach a "Bugonomics" course this semester, instead of that old school theory?" Hopefully, for our collective sake, they are searching for applicants at this very moment. 

Dr Peter G Kinesa 
August 20,2013

P.S. It should not take a rocket scientist to figure out that certain "non-financial measures" are better determiners of macro-economic wealth - however, it remains unthinkable that economics should be cluttered by the blathering of scientific protocols. So far.    
  

WELL DRESSED

Flowers? I can't even fly Doc!

CLIMATE CHANGE - #China's Economy Overheated

CLIMATE CHANGE 
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CHINA'S ECONOMY OVERHEATED

Sometimes a pictures can tell us more than all the numbers and words combined together, as evidenced by our captioned photographic gem. China is experiencing its worst heat wave in 140 years, while the economic measures continue to move it on the path of unbridled growth, that contaminates the water and environment to the point where arable land for the nation of 1.4 billion people is also rapidly contracting. Without resources, lets not forget, there can be no economic outputs.

So do you think that there may be something wrong with our global economic doctrine? Can it be sustained? Perhaps this picture has a clue to these questions' answers.

Dr Peter G Kinesa

August 5, 2013

ECONOMIC GRAPH OF THE DAY: UK Wildlife Index Decline (1968 -2010)

ECONOMIC GRAPH OF THE DAY: 

UK Wildlife Index Decline (1968 -2010)
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To the point, forget about all the graphs, charts and illustrations that you were shown back in school by your economic, business and finance professors. Why? Because the most important ones are those they failed to show and tell you about and just how important they are to markets, GDP and economies. In fact, they are so important that they would turn every other economic thesis upside down - starting with Adam Smith's, Enquiries into The Wealth of Nations. 

Not going to say much more; other than, it is very clear that Smith and his subsequent CULT believers  have missed the point entirely, having no clue as to what "Wealth" really is - we leave the rest for to you to figure out.   

Dr. Peter G Kinesa
July 29, 2013

When bugs are gone, then what happens to GDP? 

 

Sign in Egypt protest: “Wake up America, Obama backs a fascist regime in Egypt.” (Picture) | AgainstCronyCapitalism.org

Sign in Egypt protest: “Wake up America, Obama backs a fascist regime in Egypt.” (Picture) | AgainstCronyCapitalism.org

LANGUAGE TRANSLATION:

 "Feed them meat and potatoes"

What never ceases to amaze us is how everyone thinks this is all about ideology - what label would you like me to wear? Unless my belly is comfy; whatever politics, theology or economics you preach, you will not convince me or anyone else for that matter. Then once it is full. you have the opportunity to tell everyone why your way is the best way, and how it can and will be done forever. Then it becomes hard to fight the eternal benefits you promise with ideology through the narratives of science or logic. Who wants to give up a shot at eternity? So, almost everyone hedges their bets and buys into a label. Such is a simple view of life, from introspective nutshells -

Back to Egypt. Here again we can see that the real issue is "meat and potatoes." Seems as if they don't have enough to feed their ever expanding masses; they thus are prepared to follow anyone with a here-and-now solution, then worry about a bunch of tomorrows at some other convenient time. That makes sense.

Unfortunately, Egypt is on the growing list of Nauru Paradigm Countries, whereby the populations have overshot the delivery capacities of their physical economies - leading to shortages of just about everything needed to survive. Sadly, the WTO, IMF, World Bank, EU and leading economists and politicians have placed all of their bets on the abstractionist's economic models and are thereby insanely stoking the flames. When will they ever wake up?

So add Egypt to our coveted list of countries facing the final stages of the Nauru Paradigm, a nation that will now play out the Animal Farm parody for years to come, as long as incoming revolutionary leaders subscribe to outdated neo-classical economic theories - (Stories?) - they are guaranteed short careers in a shrinking world.



Dr Peter G Kinesa
July 5, 2013 

Egypt or Nauru: More Animal Farms?

KEYSTONE XL PIPELINE - How Dumb Are WE?

Keystone XL pipeline would have little impact on climate change, State Department analysis says

Good Question!

The Keystone XL Pipeline Causes NO Environmental Problems???

The State Department should just give up - NOBODY - but beer-guzzling rednecks from the Southern Bible-Belt believes anything these guys say. That's a land where higher education meets the standards set by the Fartobebug Monkees, where you take your sister to the prom and the village's chief would be its idiot anywhere else in the world, including Alaska. And worse, they think Sarah Palin and Abe Lincoln have comparable talents, skills, insights - and get this - Notable Quotes.

Yep, so there you go - the truth. Not even the Pope, Steve Colbert, Michael Moore and Zawbootu tribe of South-East Nauru, believe the State Department anymore. Why? Here's a real quick and short list we put together; starting around 1865, detailing some of the supposedly true statements that the State Department and its affiliates, agents and other assorted allies would have or like us to believe.

C''mon, who really shot Lincoln?

Pearl Harbor - We had no idea what East or West wind blowing meant? But, Sleeping Giants do.

Russians are coming? All Russians are actors? Russians own, run and live in Hollywood? Russians, in Tennessee, talk loudly about some gal named Stella; they have many desires.

The Dominoes Theory? Sorry wrong war game - then blame it on the fog.

The Warren Commission - what does that have to do with Katrina?  

One small step for man - was not a giant step for mankind.

I am not a crook - dreamed  I saw a child of God walking along the road that missed Kent State.

"Tell the United Nations, those turnip trucks are moving all the Weapons of Mass Destruction around the country.",

Remind me again, Why are we in Afghanistan? Poppies? 

Patriots' Act. Who, Hmm?

The War on Terror? On Drugs? On Poverty? On LIES...On OWS? How's about - The War on Wars - for PEACE?

Land of the Brave - Home of the Free - REALLY!

As you can plainly see, the list is as long as Santa's. Hey, but they actually think that we believe them. May be we should just send our response to.their truths. "WE were all born late at night - but it just wasn't last night". Then we all follow the road less travelled and,  

STOP THE KEYSTONE XL PIPELINE.

Then, let them know. Then let them know our truths. Let them know, of our true Heroes. Those who dare, and will dare greatly again and again; standing tall on the shoulders of giants - in the arena holding the true torch of  LIBERTY. Let them know! 

For Freedom, 
Carry On Bravehearts,


Dr Peter G Kinesa
May 3,  2013 

"Noam Chomsky"  

American Hero

"Click Here"

"Liberty Stands On These Shoulders; Inspiring its Torch, its Light, and its Journey to Destiny's Shores, Beyond the Last Eternity."

First Financial Insights, March 2, 2013

"WE ARE NOT THAT DUMB"

STOP KEYSTONE!

FIRST FINANCIAL INSIGHTS: TOP TEN INTERNATIONAL FINANCE AND ECONOMIC BLOGS

FIRST FINANCIAL INSIGHTS: TOP TEN INTERNATIONAL FINANCE AND ECONOMIC BLOGS:

TOP TEN INTERNATIONAL FINANCE AND ECONOMIC BLOGS "journeying to co-existing realities" Less than two years ago we s...

Sustainable? Longevity? The issues we face are common sense, but have been ignored for too long. Perhaps the problem with common sense it is that it is just not that common. Or we live in different co-existing realities. Pick your reason.

Dr Peter G Kinesa
April 16, 2013

Ever wonder who's right? 

The Boston Globe - Chief of US Pacific Forces Calls Climate Biggest Worry

Chief of US Pacific Forces Calls Climate Biggest Worry 

click above

When the US military realizes and states that climate change is one of the greatest threats to security we should be very concerned. Particularly, when we considered that often coined oxymoron " Military Intelligence" . Think about how much it takes these guys to figure things out, after all these years?

Enough said,  and let's have Admiral Samuel Locklear tell us about their profound "Ah Ha" moment -  I don't want to rain on their parade.

Dr Peter G Kinesa
April  15, 2013   

"Folks, you will never believe what I am about to tell you... " 

China Feels Inflation, CPI Spikes

China Feels Inflation, CPI Spikes

Before getting into the deeper issues - the first thing to put on the table is the CPI number itself. Who believes any financial number coming out of China?
Who believes that an economy can grow at 5,7 or 10% without experiencing any inflation? Who believes that an economy with excessive liquidity can hold prices down? Then there's the growing need to import more and more commodities... well, you can decide this one.

The real concern is whether currency games are going to become the new form of protectionism - a new form of trade war. With so many countries debasing their currencies - global inflation is certain to follow as more funny sovereign paper will be needed to buy real things. Now if we take the abstracts out of all this and remember that we are past peak everything  - prices of all commodities are sure  to climb dramatically. Some will be more intense than others.

Chinese inflation - you can bet the farm on it. But it is the new protectionism we are most concerned about and the trade of cheap, oppressed labour for scarcer resources. Who will level the playing field now?

Dr Peter G Kinesa
April 14, 2013

How's about a level playing field too?

  

Marc Faber BLOG: The Market will push Interest Rates Higher

Marc Faber Blog : The Market will push Interest Rates Higher

In this video interview with Marc he suggests that markets could push rates higher regardless of what the FED does. So far, the FED has been winning the war with the markets as it throws liquidity into the banking system. And as Marc observes, little has trickled into the real economy. Raising the question as to whether the bank bail-outs are still on-going?

Are Bonds in a bubble? Let's try some simple calculations assuming that in ten years rates will normalize back to 6.4% and inflation averages a modest 4.2% over this period. We will use 30 year treasuries that are currently yielding 3.2% on a simple interest basis.

Cash yield from $10,000 Bond @ 3.2% =    $320
Inflationary cost of holding @ 4.2%       =    $420   
Principal loss due rate mean reversion =    $500 

EXPECTED LOSS HOLDING IN 10yrs =  $600?

Wow! This means on a simple interest basis, the bonds pay a negative 6% a year, assuming a modest inflation rate and a return of interest rates to normal levels. This may be a best case calculation, as higher inflation rates are more likely to occur, with the pundits expected shortages in key raw industrial materials along with the climatic impacts on food and water costs. 

Anyway, something to think about along with using shorts on Bonds as an inflation hedge. Hmm.

Dr Peter G Kinesa
March 15, 2013

When will it Burst?

JIM ROGERS BLOG: The World's Savers Are Being Wiped Out, And History Says That Leads To Very Bad Things

JIM ROGERS BLOG: The World's Savers Are Being Wiped Out, And History Says That Leads To Very Bad Things

When it comes to social phenomena you cannot apply the disciplines, logic, devices, rules and observations of science - these are concrete constructs. Social phenomena deals with abstract constructs but uses scientific methods to create stories (a.k.a. Theories) about what reality is - whereby, those who are most persuasive will form the accepted consensus of a perception that is the social reality. But, it has nothing to do with what reality actually is.

So Jimmy is right, the US dollar wins by default until the social perception changes and we move to a more persuasive perception of what reality is - and that change in perception can happen at any moment. 

So, its always far better to be lucky than to be smart. A dose of reality?

Dr Peter G Kinesa
March 11, 2013

P.S. You see what us smart guys know is that all currencies eventually gravitate to a debasement of zero, as their underlying geographical resources and infrastructures expire. That is deterministic physics. However, quantum physics now overrides this theory, with its random coexisting realities - so it is again; logically, still all about luck. Science? PK.  

How many coexisting realities are there? 

We are not sure...

Marc Faber - "EVERYONE SHOULD OWN A PIEROGI FARM"

Marc Faber - "EVERYONE SHOULD OWN A PIEROGI FARM" 

You can probably tell by now that we have a little bit of a sense of humour around here. It was Churchill who once said, "a joke is a very serious matter" so we take his thought to heart and use it to uncover perspective and a sense of sanity. Anyway, we are having a little fun with  this story as we received over one thousand email enquiries from folks wanting to contact our realtor in South Kiev for his farm listings.

What 's more revealing is the breakdown of the top five countries we received enquiries from:

Greece -  23.4%

Newfoundland (Canada) -  17.4%

Italy - 12.6 %

America - 8.6%

Japan - 6.9%   

Next week we are going to start selling global retail franchises - "Faber's Farm Fresh Pierogies" - billions served. 

Have a great day!

Dr Peter G Kinesa
March 8, 2013

Marc selling, and Me (inside cooking) at Pilot Mobile Outlet

Marc Faber - "SELL EVERYTHING" - A Correction Could Start Any Day

Worth watching Marc dodge Maria's skeptical questions in this CNBC interview. We are not  being as analytical as Dr Kinesa's in his post today about the mathematics and logic of everything. In fact, we go along with Faber and Kinesa  foreseeing stormy markets ahead as we plow through this  "Ice Age " in valuations trapped by rates being too low, for too long - with no easy way out of the trap. 

When you listen to Dr Doom and the best bets he can put forward are the Ukraine and Viet Nam; you get a real sense that things are pretty tough. He does like the resource sector, but does not point to any specifics. Technology stocks are also on his watch list  - have consumer gadgets and applications peaked?

Who knows as consumers, according to recent studies, certainly do not seem to be as concerned about the environment anymore - that puts a damper on green tech as well.

Oh well, who has a retail pierogi farm or franchise for sale? 

First Financial Insights
March 4, 2013

Pierogi Farms Cheap!  - Exceptional South Kiev Investment Properties

$50,000 US - 10 Acres

Contact Ivan Jureychuck

Cabbage Roll Farms Realtors 

It’s not like the Republicans are much better, Dems complain of “Debt Clock” in Congressional hearing room

It’s not like the Republicans are much better, Dems complain of “Debt Clock” in Congressional hearing room

This number is much worse, and getting worse.

Many times we have mentioned that the actual debt number exceeds over $100 trillion.That number comes from Bill Gross; PIMCO, who also includes contingent and off-balance sheet liabilities in the total. If this number doesn't scare you, maybe the trend chart  in the linked article will - shooting straight upwards? What you don't see is the other side - that is the resource assets required to repay this debt running in the inverse direction.

So here's a question for those high IQ types - how do you repay all this debt when the resource side is depleted? Realistically, major problems will start to occur long before complete resource exhaustion occurs.

Sleep well, while you can.

Dr Peter G  Kinesa

February 28, 2013

INVESTORS' INSIGHTS - Marc Faber - 2013 Gold Price Prediction

INVESTORS' INSIGHTS - March 1, 2013

When the staffers over at First Financial Insights sent me this post before its release earlier today, I almost died from the laughing. I don't know what is funnier: seeing ole Bernie in his new digs or the idea that Mr Faber has painted himself into a golden corner. We now expect regular updates on his holdings, along with an audit report from one of the Big Firms, this time.

Anyway, I got such a big kick out of it - I wanted to be fair by sharing it with my fellow "Kinesanites."

Dr Peter G Kinesa
March 1, 2013

P.S.  Thanks to the staffers over at  FFI for the laugh - keep it coming. Pete.

Laughing Kinesanite.

Marc Faber - 2013 Gold Price Prediction

Now this video gives us a little insight into why he is carrying so much Gold in his own portfolio -25%. So now, you can see why he is so eager to have us buy more and protect his position. Otherwise, if we do the opposite and sell all our holdings - then our poor Mr. Faber faces unkind losses and embarrassment. All this could also lead to a career change for our dearest unbiased advisor.

By the way, will you tell us Marc when you decide to sell or reduce this position before you actually do? Hmm...

Madoff get back in the cage -

First Financial Insights
March 1, 2013 

"Believe me, I told you 25% is in Gold"

Home Sweet Home

Is France Business Hell - Against Crony Capitalism

Is France Business Hell?

Actually, I don't know if it is or isn't,  for I have never had the opportunity to do business with the Devil. What we do know is that the breakdown in civil safety nets, contracts and trust - leads to social unrest; and in turn political upheaval; and finally geo-political engagements and hostilities. Europe has a long history of strife amoung its member countries and most people foolishly think that today things are now different.

We don't. For in desperate times, caused by water, food and materail shortages, unemployment, overpopulation, climate change and economic instability, desperate people do desperate things. So just add France to the long list of countries that are showing signs that are now well past "peak prosperity" and are now heading towards the social-political-economic graveyard. Where their cities will look like Detroit, and their beaches host more fishermen than  tourists.

Dr Peter G Kinesa
February 28, 2013

Bonjour - Mr. Satan!

Marc Faber : Buy Gold To Protect Against The Next Crisis

Marc Faber : Buy Gold To Protect Against The Next Crisis

Oh My Gosh! Why all the Bugginess over Gold? It does nothing for our real economy, nothing to assure our on-going subsistence and expends currency from the real wealth of the planet. A net negative to planetary wealth.

Marc in this telephone interview is again taking on a senior role at the Pearly Gates, by saying or suggesting two things. Gold is insurance against systemic risk. And investors should hold up to 25% of their portfolio assets in gold. There is no way on earth that he can predict or state this just based on past events. The future is filled with a vast number of permutations, as regards the possibilities and possibilities of outcomes. One is that the price gold collapses more that everything else for any number of reasons. To say gold is some form of insurance against anything is - JUST PLAIN STUPID!

That said,obviously the 25% gold allocation is also not so wise for non-speculative portfolios.

When the crap really hits the fan, folks are going to be thinking more about gas, water, food and medicine. Things get pretty basic.
But let's not get into the prediction game here.

Dr Peter G Kinesa
February 26, 2013

" Peter, Gold Is Insurance Against Systemic Risk!" - GOD

What could go wrong with the housing recovery in 2013?

What Could go Wrong with the US Housing Recovery in 2013?

Lots. Read and analyze these charts for yourself in the linked blog. Housing bubbles, particularly like the kind leading up to 2008 meltdown, do not correct themselves in just a few short years. This is at least a decade long struggle, that will be further hindered by increases in rates at some point, collapsing all asset values. And hence, all forms of construction.

Then there's the ripple effects on renovations, big box retail, industry employment and so on. This is a huge hangover for Main Street, caused by he biggest party of drunken Wall Street sailors in history. Yet, NO ONE WENT TO JAIL...

Ain't that America. Little pink houses for you and me.

Dr Peter G Kinesa
February 25, 2013

Ain't that America, for you and me?

Detroit Continues Its Descent into the World of Mad Max

Detroit Continues Its Descent into the World of Mad Max

WHAT HAPPENED?

Want to look into the future? America's future? The global future? Then look no further than Detroit. Or Newark, Buffalo. Akron, New Orleans or many other American cities. And we can ask so many questions? Like why do they look like Third World nations? Is this really the richest country on Earth? Or how's about a simple; What happened to America?

If anything tells us that the metrics used by economists; measures such as GDP, are meaningless as a means of managing real world activties, then these everyday examples of inner city decay, should prove the point beyond any doubt. Sure it is well documented that Americans migrated to the cozy suburbs miles from the cities, as the automobile provided a means of escape. But add to this, the stripping away of the industrial heartland by Walmart and China, the shifting to a service-based economy, and the conversion of homes into ATM machines; these all created and contibuted to this civil destruction. So the crabs that are now left in the inner-city barrel, have  little hope of rising above theses dark depressed streets of despair - the streetcar named desire does not travel their anymore. Stellaaaa...

Some believe that these cities will be revived when gas prices drive the automobile to its inevitable extinction. But will the jobs return  to these cities? Will the manufacturing base return back from China? Unlikely, as the scarcity of  raw materials is going to make any sort of manufacturing anywhere on this planet difficult. In the end, the only thing still missing from this permanent picture of the American Dream and Global future is - MAX!

And how sad, this all is...

Dr Peter G Kinesa
February 21, 2013   

Who will run our cities?

  

Marc Faber: Invest Overseas, The Fed Party Is Over

Marc Faber: Invest Overseas, The Fed Party Is Over

What's in a number anyway? Faber says the FED balance sheet is over $3 trillion. However, the US government owes about $14 trillion, thusly, putting the total US government balance sheet at $14 trillion number. Does it include the FED's balance sheet? Actually, I don't know right now.

But, I can report what the legendary fixed income guru - Bill Gross; PIMCO, estimates. He puts total US government debt at a figure of  over $100 trillion. His number also includes all future payments and contingencies on a present value basis. Put another way, this is the value of all known oil reserves that are set to exhaust in about 40 years.

Ever wonder if this debt can ever be repaid ? Do not spend a lot of time thinking about it.

Dr Peter G Kinesa
February 20, 2013

What do you mean we're broke?  

Walmart says February month to date sales are “a total disaster.”

Walmart says February month to date sales are “a total disaster.”

Bad, bad, bad news. And not just for Chinamart (sic) but for the "Chinamerica" economy. It means that things are tightening up all around, so there is bound to be an effect on all sectors of the economy, including unemployment levels. Following this back to Chinese manufacturing you can expect some easing in commodity prices as their manufacturing demand and output slows.

This will also give the Fed more reasons not to fool around with its easing policies or change rates. The real big question now is: what lies ahead? Was February just an anomaly or is it the start of a trend? I suspect that the US consumer is pretty much tapped out so there is more in the offing.

This type of news is likely to trigger a sell-off in stocks, particularly if the trend continues into ensuing months. Here's a kicker. What if prices continue to rise regardless due to shortages in raw materials? We should all pay attention to this early warning signal and heed its implications - there is a smell of troubles to come.

I will be watching...

Dr. Peter G Kinesa
February 19, 2013 

Why are the people so upset?