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#ClimateCrisis: #Antarctic Sea Ice Melting #Exponentially

"Plunge is far faster than in Arctic and may lead to more global heating, say scientists" 'Precipitous' fall i...

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Monday, September 16, 2019

War #Tensions Mount After Iran-Backed Attacks On Saudi Oil Plants

Despite no specific evidence of Iranian involvement, the US treat Yemen’s Houthi rebels as tame creatures of Tehran

The claim by US officials that Iran was responsible for the oilfields attack came with no marshalled public evidence.

 The claim by US officials that Iran was responsible for the oilfields attack came with no marshalled public evidence. Photograph: Reuters

By Patrick Wintour

Saudi attack dampens faint chance of a Trump-Iran meeting

The US secretary of state Mike Pompeo’s bald claim this weekend that Iran was responsible for the attack on the Saudi oilfields came with no marshalled public evidence, but dampens any likelihood that Donald Trump will countenance a meeting with Tehran in the near future or press ahead with tentative peace talks with Houthi rebels in Oman.
Lindsey Graham, one of Trump’s foreign policy supporters in the Senate, was clear talks with Iran are now off the agenda saying: “The Iranian regime is not interested in peace – they’re pursuing nuclear weapons and regional dominance.”
For the moment Europe is not attributing blame. Britain in its statement condemning the attack did not explicitly blame Iran, but called on the Houthis to desist.

Image result for saudi oil plant attacked by drones but production unaffected



Friday, August 30, 2019

#Amazon Fires May Be Close To #Tipping-Point

A 2007 modeling study found that the loss of around 40% of the forest would reduce rainfall and extend the dry season in major parts of the Amazonia region, converting much of the eastern part into grassy plains where few trees can thrive.

Photo of the Amazon rainforest wildfire

We aren’t terrified enough about losing the Amazon

The idea is that a certain level of deforestation will push the world’s largest rainforest to a tipping point, where spiraling feedback effects convert much of the forest into savannah. The massive greenhouse gas sponge, which holds around 17% of the world’s carbon trapped in vegetation on land, would suddenly become a major source of it.
That would be a monumental catastrophe. But how real of a danger is it?
Well, scientists can’t exactly say. Some models show the phenomenonsome don’t. Where some researchers detect a tipping point in the data—which technically means it would continue on its own even if the forces that first drove it fade away—others see merely progressive deterioration that could be halted. Still other studies have found such a phenomenon would most likely convert rainforest into seasonal forest, rather than savannah.
So what should we do in the face of this kind of scientific uncertainty? Like other climate tipping points, which are unpredictable and essentially irreversible once reached, we should err on the side of caution. 
“Even if it’s a remote possibility, we cannot afford to ignore it,” says Jonathan Foley, executive director of Project Drawdown, a research group focused on decarbonization. “It would be absolutely catastrophic to the Earth’s carbon cycle, water cycle, climate, and biodiversity—not to mention the people who live there.” 
Image result for amazon fires 2019

Possible Future

Monday, August 26, 2019

#Global #Food Supply - How Long Will It Last?

A new report from the United Nations paints a bleak picture of the future of food.

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The Global Food Supply is Delicate. Climate Change Is Making Things Worse.

  • By itself, humanity is pushing the bounds of how much food can consumed.
  • Climate change will significantly alter every aspect of food, from apples to steak.
  • If humans can halt deforestation and alter food patterns, things could be way better, says the new UN report.
new report on climate change and land use from the United Nations shows over-exploitation of land resources at a rate "unprecedented in human history." If there are no changes in humanity's attitudes toward land resources or climate change, the study says, there will be a dire threat to humanity's global food supply system.
The societal and environmental problems facing the world's food supply are vast and multi-faceted, according to the report's first chapter. They include the "conversion of natural ecosystems into managed land, rapid urbanization, pollution from the intensification of land management and equitable access to land resources," as well as "technological development, population growth and increasing per capita demand for multiple ecosystem services."
As a 2018 study showed, 100 years ago, humans used just 15 percent of the world's surface to grow crops and raise livestock. Excluding the frozen wastes of Antarctica, that number is now 77 percent.
Aerial view of cows suffering from the drought grouped in fences to be fed by the governement, Oromia, Yabelo, Ethiopia



Friday, August 23, 2019

What's The #Worst Case End-Game For The #ClimateCrisis?

In climate science there has been a tension between the drive towards consensus to support policy making versus exploratory speculation and research that pushes forward the knowledge frontier 

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Climate Change: What’s the Worst Case?

By Judith Curry

My new manuscript is now available.
A link to my new paper ‘Climate Change: What’s the Worst Case?’ is provided here [worst case paper final (1)]
A few words on the intended audience and motivation for writing this:
First and foremost, this is written for the clients of Climate Forecast Applications Network who are interested in scenarios of future climate change [link]
Second, this paper is written as a contribution to my series of academic papers on the topic of uncertainty in climate science:
Third, the paper is written to inform the public debate on climate change and policy makers.  I am ever hopeful that some sanity can be interjected into all this.
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Thursday, August 22, 2019

US Democratic Party #DNC Takes Low Road On #ClimateCrisis

Members cited concerns over changing party rules and opening the door for a flood of single-issue events

Image result for confused democratic party cartoon

The Democratic National Committee has rejected mounting calls for a party-sponsored debate on the climate crisis, voting down a resolution that would have dedicated one of the 12 Democratic debates entirely to the issue.

Calls for a DNC-sanctioned climate debate have been building for months. In poll after poll, climate has been one of the most important issues to likely Democratic voters in the 2020 presidential election. But little time has been devoted to the topic in debates to date: a scant 15 minutes in the first set of debates, and just over 20 in the most recent two.
Party delegates are meeting this week in San Francisco to hear from 2020 candidates, hold fundraising events and tend to party business. But one of the gathering’s most urgent agenda items was to vote on competing resolutions to determine whether or not such an event would go ahead.

 A committee rejected the resolution in a 17-to-8 vote. Photograph: Guy Bell/REX/Shutterstock



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