#TIME - Bugonomics - Now it's Honey Bees!

TIME - Bugonomics - Now it's Honey Bees!

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A few weeks back we highlighted a graph illustrating the decline of wildlife and bugs in the UK, since 1968 - it was our economic graph of the week. Wherein the term "Bugonomics" was also coined for posterity. Our point then and still is - Economists place too much emphasis on the abstract measures of wealth, such as GDP and CPI, and not enough on the key metrics associated with the real physical wealth of the planet. Blame them all, right back to Adam Smith. 

Compare this to your doctor's assessment based on how well you are dressed during appointments - not on any other diagnostic measures that probe into the physical state of your body. It would be a small consolation being well-dressed for your premature funeral. See the point? That's why we believe the field of "Bugonomics" is destined to replace Keynesian and other neo-classical theories. It is clearly more scientific.

So we applaud TIME magazine's article on "Honey Bees" for bringing forward this salient economic issue. For it drives home the idea that without these bees our way of life and existence may be in jeopardy. And that's just one bug! Unfortunately, we can only link you to the beginning of the article, but it should be enough to get the point across. 

In summary, we emphasize that bugs can go on when our economies don't; but our economies would cease if bugs should ever perish. In fact, we speculate matters will be much worse for us if they do. By the way, all along the economy would be growing at a robust pace, and we should all look pretty good too!

So when will Harvard, MIT, Oxford or Princeton ask, "Why don't we have someone teach a "Bugonomics" course this semester, instead of that old school theory?" Hopefully, for our collective sake, they are searching for applicants at this very moment. 

Dr Peter G Kinesa 
August 20,2013

P.S. It should not take a rocket scientist to figure out that certain "non-financial measures" are better determiners of macro-economic wealth - however, it remains unthinkable that economics should be cluttered by the blathering of scientific protocols. So far.    
  

WELL DRESSED

Flowers? I can't even fly Doc!

ECONOMIC GRAPH OF THE DAY: UK Wildlife Index Decline (1968 -2010)

ECONOMIC GRAPH OF THE DAY: 

UK Wildlife Index Decline (1968 -2010)
(Read More)

 

To the point, forget about all the graphs, charts and illustrations that you were shown back in school by your economic, business and finance professors. Why? Because the most important ones are those they failed to show and tell you about and just how important they are to markets, GDP and economies. In fact, they are so important that they would turn every other economic thesis upside down - starting with Adam Smith's, Enquiries into The Wealth of Nations. 

Not going to say much more; other than, it is very clear that Smith and his subsequent CULT believers  have missed the point entirely, having no clue as to what "Wealth" really is - we leave the rest for to you to figure out.   

Dr. Peter G Kinesa
July 29, 2013

When bugs are gone, then what happens to GDP? 

 

Sign in Egypt protest: “Wake up America, Obama backs a fascist regime in Egypt.” (Picture) | AgainstCronyCapitalism.org

Sign in Egypt protest: “Wake up America, Obama backs a fascist regime in Egypt.” (Picture) | AgainstCronyCapitalism.org

LANGUAGE TRANSLATION:

 "Feed them meat and potatoes"

What never ceases to amaze us is how everyone thinks this is all about ideology - what label would you like me to wear? Unless my belly is comfy; whatever politics, theology or economics you preach, you will not convince me or anyone else for that matter. Then once it is full. you have the opportunity to tell everyone why your way is the best way, and how it can and will be done forever. Then it becomes hard to fight the eternal benefits you promise with ideology through the narratives of science or logic. Who wants to give up a shot at eternity? So, almost everyone hedges their bets and buys into a label. Such is a simple view of life, from introspective nutshells -

Back to Egypt. Here again we can see that the real issue is "meat and potatoes." Seems as if they don't have enough to feed their ever expanding masses; they thus are prepared to follow anyone with a here-and-now solution, then worry about a bunch of tomorrows at some other convenient time. That makes sense.

Unfortunately, Egypt is on the growing list of Nauru Paradigm Countries, whereby the populations have overshot the delivery capacities of their physical economies - leading to shortages of just about everything needed to survive. Sadly, the WTO, IMF, World Bank, EU and leading economists and politicians have placed all of their bets on the abstractionist's economic models and are thereby insanely stoking the flames. When will they ever wake up?

So add Egypt to our coveted list of countries facing the final stages of the Nauru Paradigm, a nation that will now play out the Animal Farm parody for years to come, as long as incoming revolutionary leaders subscribe to outdated neo-classical economic theories - (Stories?) - they are guaranteed short careers in a shrinking world.



Dr Peter G Kinesa
July 5, 2013 

Egypt or Nauru: More Animal Farms?

Against Crony Capitalism -The gap between rich and poor will continue to grow until we give up on QE

Against Crony Capitalism - The gap between rich and poor will continue to grow until we give up on QE

Let me just say that this is an interesting read, but I do not believe that there is any cause and effect relationship between QE and the wealth gap. This is a gap that has been growing long before QE was a glimmer in Bernanke's eyes. 

American social decay has been going on since WW II and shows no signs of abatement. Look at the disgraceful conditions of their cities, physical infrastructures and superficial cultural Combined suggesting there is little hope in the context of its current frameworks and leadership anything will ever change. In fact even if they wanted to, there is no more pie to pass around and share as humanity is past "peak everything" . 

How really dumb is the situation? Well America continues to encourage more immigration that creates larger ghettos of poor folks, knowing full well the resources needed to feed these tens of millions more; just won't be there in ten years or so. But the Rich do enjoy interim benefits. So, expect a class war leading to a possible reconfiguration of the states into sovereign regional governments - this is starting to look more plausible as the gap between rich and poor grows. Also when you think about Texas's lone star ambitions.

Historically, feeding cake crumbs does not stop the barbarians at the gates. Storms are beyond control when the wealth gap is too big, for too long. Winds of revolution are stirring.

Dr Peter G Kinesa
May  16, 2013 

When will they storm the Bastille?

KEYSTONE XL PIPELINE - How Dumb Are WE?

Keystone XL pipeline would have little impact on climate change, State Department analysis says

Good Question!

The Keystone XL Pipeline Causes NO Environmental Problems???

The State Department should just give up - NOBODY - but beer-guzzling rednecks from the Southern Bible-Belt believes anything these guys say. That's a land where higher education meets the standards set by the Fartobebug Monkees, where you take your sister to the prom and the village's chief would be its idiot anywhere else in the world, including Alaska. And worse, they think Sarah Palin and Abe Lincoln have comparable talents, skills, insights - and get this - Notable Quotes.

Yep, so there you go - the truth. Not even the Pope, Steve Colbert, Michael Moore and Zawbootu tribe of South-East Nauru, believe the State Department anymore. Why? Here's a real quick and short list we put together; starting around 1865, detailing some of the supposedly true statements that the State Department and its affiliates, agents and other assorted allies would have or like us to believe.

C''mon, who really shot Lincoln?

Pearl Harbor - We had no idea what East or West wind blowing meant? But, Sleeping Giants do.

Russians are coming? All Russians are actors? Russians own, run and live in Hollywood? Russians, in Tennessee, talk loudly about some gal named Stella; they have many desires.

The Dominoes Theory? Sorry wrong war game - then blame it on the fog.

The Warren Commission - what does that have to do with Katrina?  

One small step for man - was not a giant step for mankind.

I am not a crook - dreamed  I saw a child of God walking along the road that missed Kent State.

"Tell the United Nations, those turnip trucks are moving all the Weapons of Mass Destruction around the country.",

Remind me again, Why are we in Afghanistan? Poppies? 

Patriots' Act. Who, Hmm?

The War on Terror? On Drugs? On Poverty? On LIES...On OWS? How's about - The War on Wars - for PEACE?

Land of the Brave - Home of the Free - REALLY!

As you can plainly see, the list is as long as Santa's. Hey, but they actually think that we believe them. May be we should just send our response to.their truths. "WE were all born late at night - but it just wasn't last night". Then we all follow the road less travelled and,  

STOP THE KEYSTONE XL PIPELINE.

Then, let them know. Then let them know our truths. Let them know, of our true Heroes. Those who dare, and will dare greatly again and again; standing tall on the shoulders of giants - in the arena holding the true torch of  LIBERTY. Let them know! 

For Freedom, 
Carry On Bravehearts,


Dr Peter G Kinesa
May 3,  2013 

"Noam Chomsky"  

American Hero

"Click Here"

"Liberty Stands On These Shoulders; Inspiring its Torch, its Light, and its Journey to Destiny's Shores, Beyond the Last Eternity."

First Financial Insights, March 2, 2013

"WE ARE NOT THAT DUMB"

STOP KEYSTONE!

The Boston Globe - Chief of US Pacific Forces Calls Climate Biggest Worry

Chief of US Pacific Forces Calls Climate Biggest Worry 

click above

When the US military realizes and states that climate change is one of the greatest threats to security we should be very concerned. Particularly, when we considered that often coined oxymoron " Military Intelligence" . Think about how much it takes these guys to figure things out, after all these years?

Enough said,  and let's have Admiral Samuel Locklear tell us about their profound "Ah Ha" moment -  I don't want to rain on their parade.

Dr Peter G Kinesa
April  15, 2013   

"Folks, you will never believe what I am about to tell you... " 

China Feels Inflation, CPI Spikes

China Feels Inflation, CPI Spikes

Before getting into the deeper issues - the first thing to put on the table is the CPI number itself. Who believes any financial number coming out of China?
Who believes that an economy can grow at 5,7 or 10% without experiencing any inflation? Who believes that an economy with excessive liquidity can hold prices down? Then there's the growing need to import more and more commodities... well, you can decide this one.

The real concern is whether currency games are going to become the new form of protectionism - a new form of trade war. With so many countries debasing their currencies - global inflation is certain to follow as more funny sovereign paper will be needed to buy real things. Now if we take the abstracts out of all this and remember that we are past peak everything  - prices of all commodities are sure  to climb dramatically. Some will be more intense than others.

Chinese inflation - you can bet the farm on it. But it is the new protectionism we are most concerned about and the trade of cheap, oppressed labour for scarcer resources. Who will level the playing field now?

Dr Peter G Kinesa
April 14, 2013

How's about a level playing field too?

  

Marc Faber BLOG: The Market will push Interest Rates Higher

Marc Faber Blog : The Market will push Interest Rates Higher

In this video interview with Marc he suggests that markets could push rates higher regardless of what the FED does. So far, the FED has been winning the war with the markets as it throws liquidity into the banking system. And as Marc observes, little has trickled into the real economy. Raising the question as to whether the bank bail-outs are still on-going?

Are Bonds in a bubble? Let's try some simple calculations assuming that in ten years rates will normalize back to 6.4% and inflation averages a modest 4.2% over this period. We will use 30 year treasuries that are currently yielding 3.2% on a simple interest basis.

Cash yield from $10,000 Bond @ 3.2% =    $320
Inflationary cost of holding @ 4.2%       =    $420   
Principal loss due rate mean reversion =    $500 

EXPECTED LOSS HOLDING IN 10yrs =  $600?

Wow! This means on a simple interest basis, the bonds pay a negative 6% a year, assuming a modest inflation rate and a return of interest rates to normal levels. This may be a best case calculation, as higher inflation rates are more likely to occur, with the pundits expected shortages in key raw industrial materials along with the climatic impacts on food and water costs. 

Anyway, something to think about along with using shorts on Bonds as an inflation hedge. Hmm.

Dr Peter G Kinesa
March 15, 2013

When will it Burst?

JIM ROGERS BLOG: The World's Savers Are Being Wiped Out, And History Says That Leads To Very Bad Things

JIM ROGERS BLOG: The World's Savers Are Being Wiped Out, And History Says That Leads To Very Bad Things

When it comes to social phenomena you cannot apply the disciplines, logic, devices, rules and observations of science - these are concrete constructs. Social phenomena deals with abstract constructs but uses scientific methods to create stories (a.k.a. Theories) about what reality is - whereby, those who are most persuasive will form the accepted consensus of a perception that is the social reality. But, it has nothing to do with what reality actually is.

So Jimmy is right, the US dollar wins by default until the social perception changes and we move to a more persuasive perception of what reality is - and that change in perception can happen at any moment. 

So, its always far better to be lucky than to be smart. A dose of reality?

Dr Peter G Kinesa
March 11, 2013

P.S. You see what us smart guys know is that all currencies eventually gravitate to a debasement of zero, as their underlying geographical resources and infrastructures expire. That is deterministic physics. However, quantum physics now overrides this theory, with its random coexisting realities - so it is again; logically, still all about luck. Science? PK.  

How many coexisting realities are there? 

We are not sure...

INVESTORS' INSIGHTS - Eric Sprott Canada has no Gold

INVESTORS' INSIGHTS - March 5, 2013

Oh Canada!

TRUE CANADIAN GOLD 

When my boss gets up on his stump and expouses his reasonings on matters, he reminds me of Teddy Kenedy's concession speech at the 1980 Democratic National Convention. Brings a tear to the eye, a lump to the throat and a pocket full of dreams with unyeiding inspirations. Here's the full text, from today's Investors' Insights.

For good measure, I have linked in Ted's speech so you can catch the tone and cadence here. What's amazing about the content of the speech too, is how little has changed over the past thirty plus years. That's sad.


Passing the torch...

Dr Peter G Kinesa
March 5, 2013

One Great Speech - Who Listened?

Eric Sprott Blog: Canada Has NO Gold:

Eric Sprott discussing the complete lack of gold reserves that the Canadian government has. Start stacking Canada! End of the Road: H...

That's a good thing. Eric clearly needs a few lessons in Meta and Macro Economics, including an understanding of the Nauru Paradigm Cycle. First, what type of countries require large Gold reserves? Well, of course, countries on the verge of physical bankruptcy - meaning they have virtually exhausted all their non-renewable and renewable resources - hence, they are entering the last stages of the Nauru Paradigm. Gold is the last stand for these desperate countries, providing one remaining lifeline to deferring the inevitable collapse of their economic, political and social complexes. But, Gold can only relieves such symptoms temporarily - it does not fix or cure the underlying economic malady. 

By the way, most countries entering this final phase of the Nauru Cycle can expect two outcomes: increasing social unrest and growing external hostilities. This is a historical fact, but it is also reflected on today's geo-political stage. Consider Syria, Egypt, Iran, Greece, France, Japan and many others (China?) - all are nations entering the final stages of the Nauru cycle - where physical resources per capita are in rapid decline.  Expect More Wars.

Canada, on the other hand,  is invariably the richest country in the world given the vastness of its resources and infrastructure complexes. Its per capita resource/currency ratio is second to none, given its relatively low population.The last thing Canada needs is more Gold - it has enough in the ground in the event of need. Yet, there's more...

More reasons why Canada doesn't need Gold reserves? 

First; in a few short years, Canadians will be able to pick it up tonnes of Gold on the cheap, as last stage countries in the Nauru survival mode are dumping their reserves to finance wars; stay social unrest or ensure departing dictators have their retirement assets available in the right places, after political life. (Dictator's Survival Guide: Zurich Gnomes 101) .

Second, for the reasons mentioned, Canada's currency is trending upwards under immense long-term pressures, so the last thing it needs are measures that could be perceived to strengthen this sleeping giant of global currencies. It would not surprise us to see the Canadian dollar rise to $1.50 US in five years, and climb further to $2.00 in ten or less years - particularly when the FED's exponential, on-going debasement of the greenback is taken into account. This the price to be paid by the US for running its fiat currency presses 24/ 7. Meanwhile, these fiat currency presses, allow the US  o tpay debts with paper IOU's, knowing that any debt repayment in physical currency forms is impossible (not enough OIL in the world?) - this paper chase cannot; however, last forever.  People figure it out, sooner or later.

A patient Canada is sure to be a BIG Winner in the Gold game down the road; albeit, a meaningless win when critical global resources are practically depleted or unusable. Mr Sprott needs to revisit his Meta-Economic books and refresh his understanding of the deep implications of the "Nauru Paradigm Cycle."

It goes without saying, that the Canadian dollar is a great surrogate  play on hard and soft commodities (including fresh water), both of which have more real upside in the coming years. Rogers, Soros and Faber think these commodities are too. Gold is a more speculative strategy - we prefer the elements offering real economic utilities - not golden abstractions from OZ. 

From Behind the Wizard's Curtain,

First Financial Insights

March 5, 2013 

Nauru Paradigm - when there is nothing left!

"Hey guys, that's not Nauru ??? Oh, I see?"

Marc Faber - A Correction Could Start Any Day

Marc Faber - A Correction Could Start Any Day

But remember, no one rings a bell at bottom nor blows a horn at the top. So what's likely to trigger a real sell off of in the markets? Our best guess is: Bonds, Bonds, Bonds - so how goes the bond market should bring the equities along with them. However, equities appear to be discounting earnings at a 5-6% cap rate with overall PEs hovering near multiples of 18 . Whereas, if the bond markets were expected to hold rates at 2-3%, then PE multiples should be approaching 35 to 40 times earnings. Hmm...

This is an interesting case where the equities are pricing in real inflation and telling us the bond market isn't, and thereby as everyone pretty much knows - overprices the Bonds. The downside on equities should therefore not be as gruesome, unless a much more dramatic move in rates occurs. 

Still remember too, that interest rate increases pose a double hazard to stocks as they attack earnings and cap rates, concurrently. Such are the perils of "Valuation Traps" and explain why countries look to debase their currencies in order to hold notional asset values domestically while retaining global trade advantages. Be sure to keep a eye on Japan as they have been trying to find an escape hatch from the trap for more than a decade. 

Dr Peter G Kinesa
March 4, 2013 

So who has the horns?  

INVESTORS' INSIGHTS - Jim Rogers:Facebook Is not an Investment, It's a Waste of Time

INVESTORS' INSIGHTS - February 18, 2013

"I told you we should LISTEN -"

Failing to listen. The list of corporate failures that can ultimately be blamed on this seemingly simple, but so often overlooked human attribute, has draged down so many of the once great and mighty. Reminding all of us, of the costs associated with thinking we know it all - when we are drunk in our current success. When in truth, the only thing that we can ever certainly know in this deterministic world  - is that we know nothing . 

So we continue to humbly listen, again and again and again.

Dr Peter G Kinesa

February 21,2013  

Jim Rogers: Facebook Is not an Investment, It's a Waste of Time

Click Above

Jimmy in this phone conversation says he is neither long nor short Facebook; he is simply just not investing. In investment parlance this means, he thinks the stock is garbage and would not touch it with a ten-foot pole. We agree.

First, Facebook ascribes to one of the worst American business practices and has little "human touch" in its business model. American businesses that fail on the world stage are often swept away by global competion because they do not have a High Touch with their customers. Any company that does not have a real person available to assist customers with service issues is doomed to fail - it happens all the time. The first rule of business success: "Listen, listen, listen, and then when you have heard enough, listen again and again and again " 

And the second rule that follows: Don't let your accountants run the business - need we say more? 

Second, its software is not intuitive, particularly for business, and again faces customer service challenges that will turn this market off in the early going. This market is where the real money is made.  They will not return once they have been turned off.

Facebook faces powerful copycat competition from the likes of Google, Twitter, Microsoft and others, who have other complimentary platforms where the combined functionalities of hardware and software configurations create synergies that could easily see Facebook's consumer markets stolen. Moreover, these powerful competitors have a strong presence and trust in the more lucrative commercial markets that are critical to long-term success and profits. We don't see a lot of businesses tying their destinies to what is perceived be to a kid's fad and consumer product. 

It is unlikely that Facebook can hold its valuations. The markets may give it a couple years, at most, to generate commensurate profits. Right now, that appears highly unlikely considering the tough competition in its most lucrative markets.

We go beyond Jimmy and expect this puppy to sink well below $10 in the next 12 to 18 months. More so, if interest rates climb in this period. So don't waste your time or your money on the long side of this hyped-up generational fad.

First Financial Insights

February 18, 2013

High Tech minus High Touch, Spells Disaster 

Marc Faber: Invest Overseas, The Fed Party Is Over

Marc Faber: Invest Overseas, The Fed Party Is Over

What's in a number anyway? Faber says the FED balance sheet is over $3 trillion. However, the US government owes about $14 trillion, thusly, putting the total US government balance sheet at $14 trillion number. Does it include the FED's balance sheet? Actually, I don't know right now.

But, I can report what the legendary fixed income guru - Bill Gross; PIMCO, estimates. He puts total US government debt at a figure of  over $100 trillion. His number also includes all future payments and contingencies on a present value basis. Put another way, this is the value of all known oil reserves that are set to exhaust in about 40 years.

Ever wonder if this debt can ever be repaid ? Do not spend a lot of time thinking about it.

Dr Peter G Kinesa
February 20, 2013

What do you mean we're broke?  

#NAURU - MY 2013 VACATION PICTURES

#NAURU - MY 2013 VACATION PICTURES

Dearest Friends,

In early February, I finally got a week off and had the opportunity to fly back to visit my old Alma mater, the world famous Nauru School of Keynesian Economics. Named, of course, after one of its most famous students and, founded by Adam Smith, long before his tenure in Scotland. Many of the world's leading Keynesian Economists, and Economic Nobel Prize Winners, have passed through its arches of higher(sic) learning

Anyway, here's me on the beach with a few of my co-ed friends and colleagues, enjoying the refreshing weather and tropical views. Also, there is a photo shot of my good friend from school, Dr Nigel Tapatughamans, fishing on the beach  - who for years was the country's leading Keynesian Economist; and was also once considered for a Nobel Prize, when Nauru was a working miracle. Indeed, not so long ago, Nauru had the highest income and wealth per capita in the world.

Seriously, there is a very important message here that should not escape raw wisdoms.The economic history of Nauru is a lesson of utmost meaning, for it foreshadows the fate of the larger planet that continues to apply insane Keynesian Economic ideas, despite real physical and mathematical constraints. Just Nuts -   

Watch some of these videos below, they should be a mandatory part of  curriculum's in all schools of business and economics. Better yet; all schools. As it demonstrates, in no uncertain terms, where the human enterprise is headed globally, should it continue along the conventional economic path. However, in all likelihood it may not even attain the simple paradise of Nauru; as geo-political tensions could interrupt even this tranquil destination.

So please, please take the time to view one or more of these videos and explore further how one small nation magnifies the trajectory of the human condition  should we continue to foolishly believe and practice the same old theories that many of us learned at Nauru's World-Famous "School of Keynesian Economics" 

BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY,  pass, tweet, share, post and show this video archive to as many friends, families, colleagues, strangers and foes as you can. So that they too, may join a larger awakening and understanding, of where all this Keynesian economics and unbridled consumptive growth leads us. 

For these are certainly not the stairways to heaven that we have all bought into...

All the Very Best,

Dr. Peter G Kinesa

February 17, 2013 

P.S. This histroric post was actually the first ever blogged by First Financial Insights,(May 27, 2011) defining a theme that focuses on an economic reality inclusive of physics and exponential mathematics: not hypothetical abstractions built within subjective contexts - with the clear view of avoiding the outcomes of Nauru and Easter Island - with the clear view of sustaining the human enterprise for as long as possible - with the clear view of avoiding the premature human extinction, that Keynesian Economics will ultimately lead us to. 

And then you judge, as we let the facts and numbers speak for themselves. 

Mother Earth asks us one simple thing:

PLEASE STAND BY ME...  

Beautiful Vacation

 Spot

Great Tropical 

             

   Beaches    

  Nauru 

      
    When we run out of….OIL?

  there’s Tourism and Fishing

                 

And       

    VISIT NAURU TODAY

     EXPERIENCE LIFE WITHOUT RESOURCES

   REMEMBER WHEN!

First Financial Insights

http://www.ffi.yolasite.com/

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Ó Materials subject to copyright First Financial Insights Inc, 2011

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