Record Heat Bakes #Australia - #GOP Climate Experts say..."Uh!"

Australia experiences its hottest two years on record

High temperatures, which are forecast to continue through winter, are a clear sign of climate change, report warns

 heguardian.com,

Press) – Australia has experienced its hottest two years on record and high temperatures are set to continue through winter in a clear sign of climate change, a report warns.
May 2012 to April 2014 was the hottest 24-month period ever recorded in Australia, but that is likely to be eclipsed by the two years between June 2012 and May 2014, according to the Climate Commission's latest report, Abnormal Autumn.

"We have just had an abnormally warm autumn, off the back of another very hot 'angry summer'," Professor Will Steffen of the Climate Council said.

"The past two-year period has delivered the hottest average temperature we have ever recorded in Australia.

"Climate change is here, it's happening, and Australians are already feeling its impact."

The average temperature across Australia in April was 1.11C above the long-term average, the report says, citing Bureau of Meteorology figures.

The average minimum temperature was 1.31C above normal.

Unseasonable temperatures in the autumn "warm wave" set records, with Sydney, Adelaide, and Melbourne setting benchmarks for the consecutive number of May days when the mercury reached 20C or higher.

In its report, the Climate Council says the abnormally warm weather in April and May "are part of a longer-term trend towards hotter conditions in the summer months and more warm spells in autumn and winter"


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Hottest Summer on Record!

#Forbes - BIG #OIL Battles #Insurance Over Climate Hoax?

Rift Widening Between Energy And Insurance Industries Over Climate Change

By Ken Silverstein


(Forbes) – Being a big business, the insurance industry is a strong backer of free enterprise and its laissez-faire leaders. But a rift could be developing now that some major carriers are staking claims in the climate change cause while many of their congressional backers have remained skeptical of the science.


For insurers, it’s not about the political machinations but rather, it’s about the potential economic losses. If even part of the predictions hold — the ones released by the Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change that ascribe temperature change to humans with 95 percent certainty — then the rate of extreme weather events will only increase and the effects would be more severe. That, in turn, would lead to greater damages and more payouts.


“The heavy losses caused by weather-related natural catastrophes in the USA showed that greater loss-prevention efforts are needed,” says Munich Re Munich Re board member Torsen Jeworrek.


He says that the United States suffered $400 billion in weather-related damages in 2011 and insured losses of $119 billion, which were record amounts. In 2012 — and despite Superstorm Sandy — losses were well above the 10-year averages at $165 billion total, of which insurers paid $50 billion. In 2013, insurance companies paid out, globally, $45 billion in claims, says Zurich-based Swiss Reinsurance Co., adding that the United States accounted for $19 billion of that.


Meantime, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services just issued a report saying that the credit ratings of sovereign countries would be affected by global warming. It pointed to Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines, heavy flooding in Great Britain and the record cold temperatures this past winter in the United States, all of which caused economic damages and disrupted business practices.

But it adds that the developing nations in Africa and Asia are most at risk, namely because they are low-lying regions that are heavily reliant on farming and agriculture. At the same time, they are not in a financial position to handle catastrophic events. 



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By the way...

It is all just a Hoax?

 

Doc's Comments:

Two titans are in conflict over the economic implications of climate change. Big OIL takes the sick position that all the science is just a hoax, while Big INSURERS are saying it is very real. We know - because we are paying out the claims that are beginning to rise dramatically.

 

The time has come to nationalize all oil companies worldwide in order to bring a sense of human responsibility to the activities of this industry. The TIME  has come  to slay the Six Evil Dragons. Period!

 

Dr. Peter G Kinesa

May 23, 2014  

FOOD PRICE SHOCKS - More to Come?

Comments:

The under noted and somewhat quiet indices, are by far the most important global investment metrics to those learned and sharp minds that need a sound reading on the pulse of human activity . They are not given the attention they deserve, but without a doubt they weight ahead of the conventional Dow, CPI, GDP and all the rest, oft over used by retail media. In so many ways, they provide a comprehensive measure of the global state of affairs, in physical and economic terms.

If they are not part of and near the top of your metrics portfolio, you are bound to have considerable trouble with investment returns and economic decisions in the years ahead. If we have to explain why - then, it is strongly suggested that you are better suited for other fields and endeavours. 

Dr Peter G Kinesa
April 16, 2014





FAO Food Price Index rose sharply for a second consecutive month

3 April 2014 (FAO) – The FAO Food Price Index is a measure of the monthly change in international prices of a basket of food commodities. It consists of the average of five commodity group price indices, weighted with the average export shares of each of the groups for 2002-2004.

» The FAO Food Price Index averaged 212.8 points in March 2014, up 4.8 points, or 2.3 percent, from February and the highest level since May 2013. Last month’s increase was largely driven by unfavourable weather conditions affecting some crops and geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea region. Overall, except for the FAO Dairy Price Index, which fell for the first time in four months, all the other commodity price indices registered gains, with sugar and cereals increasing the most.

» The FAO Cereal Price Index averaged 205.8 points in March, up as much as 10 points, or 5.2 percent, from February, marking the second month of significant increases. While in March the Index rose to its highest value since August 2013, it remained well below (34.6 points or 14.4 percent) its value in March 2013. Last month’s strength stemmed from a surge in wheat and maize prices reflecting a strong pace in grain imports, growing concerns over the effect of continued dryness in the south-central United States on winter wheat crops, and unfavourable weather in parts of Brazil. Geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea region, in particular uncertainties with regard to grain shipments from Ukraine, also provided a boost.  Rice prices were generally stable.

» The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index averaged 204.8 points in March, up another 7 points (or 4.5 percent) from February and the highest level in 18 months. The rise in the index mainly reflected a surge in palm oil, on continued concerns over the impact of protracted dry weather in Southeast Asia. Tight inventories in Malaysia and the prospect of rising domestic consumption in Indonesia, the top palm oil producer and exporter, contributed to the strengthening in palm oil values, as did reports about a possible El Niño weather event later this year. International prices for soy, sunflower and rape seed oil also firmed.

» The FAO Dairy Price Index averaged 268.5 points in March, a fall of 6.9 points, or 2.5 percent, over February. Demand for all dairy products has been affected by reduced purchases by China and uncertainty over trade with the Russian Federation.  Additionally, an extended season in New Zealand and a good start to the dairy-year in the northern-hemisphere have meant that supplies for export have increased.  The dairy commodity subject to the sharpest price drop was Whole Milk Powder, reflecting reduced buying interest from China, in particular.

» The FAO Meat Price Index averaged 185 points in March, 2.7 points, or 1.5 percent, above February.  The main driver was higher bovine meat prices, which were associated with dry weather conditions affecting production in both Australia and the United States. Prices for pigmeat also rose, in part on concerns over the effect of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus on export supplies in the United States.  Prices of poultry and ovine meat were only slightly stronger.

» The FAO Sugar Price Index averaged 253.9 points in March, up 18.5 points, or 7.9 percent, from February.  Sugar prices kept strengthening amid concerns of declining export availabilities from Brazil and Thailand, due to drought and reduced sugarcane output, respectively. The likelihood of sugar crops being adversely affected by El Niño later this year also contributed to the price surge.

FAO Food Price Index rose sharply for a second consecutive month

Stephen Hawking Committee- Frightening Numbers!

Frightening!

A Possible Numerical Outlook

Gathering Storm: Events or Process? 

Recently, I was asked by a close colleague, if I was now much more concerned because Stephen Hawking and others have formed a group that would look into building plans for possible end of world events? "Wot me worry?" as I smirkingly replied  with my Alfred E. Neuman grin. Of course, my outlook is grave; but my deep concern was  the actual mandate and agenda that the Committee had undertaken. Quite simply, their focus is on the events that may cause civilization's collapse, or even extinction.rather than the multitude of human and related environment processes that are slowly leading us to Doomsday's stormy gates.

So, in the next few weeks I will be writing to Professor Hawking's at Cambridge, setting forth my serious concerns for tabling with the committee..As a part of my writing, I will include the following illustrative example relating to the "process" of physical management, consumption and exhaustion of world oil reserves. Spelling out the possible frightening outlooks that could result from this process.Outlooks, affecting not only the expected longevity of human civilization's form, but also its very existence. 

For indeed, there is a gathering storm - and it may be closer than we think?    

Dr Peter G Kinesa
October 1, 2013      

Frightening! – A Possible Numerical Outlook

Wot me worry? Here some are some quick hold-in-your-head, back-of- the-envelope numbers. And 750 million at risk - that's a little on the light side.

Assume all other threats are put on the back burner and we only have the two issues of oil (energy) and population (energy addicts) to deal with, and no other "black swans". 

The stakes are actually billions of lost lives by the end of the century (85+ years from now) when the "best" estimates have annual oil extraction running near 5 billion barrels annually (some estimates are as low as 1 billion annually) . That's 15% of today’s volumes which is enough to support about 1 billion folks at today's consumption standards.

Worse case is that the 1.2 trillion barrels in reserves today is set to run out in about 40 years, which "at best," results in the collapse of our current form of oil-dependent civilization. There are no known alternatives that are sufficient in energy supply to replace the cheap and convenient energy abundance provided by oil. 

Even if we stopped giving birth to any more children, at this very moment , lasting for the next forty years, then under this assumptive case we could only extend the life of the oil supplies by about 10 years. They still would be exhausted in 50 years. So the form of civilization we know would still come to an abrupt halt only ten years later. Oil exhaustion is certainly analogous to running the human body without blood. Ain't going to happen.   

Add to this, that the 330 million Americans on this planet who consume about 32 barrels per capita, while China and India's 3 billion people consume, at best, 2 barrels per capita. They have  3 billion combined people moving towards Western standards of oil consumption. So instead of the reported 32 billion we now consume globally, in 15 to 20 years the number could double to 64 billion. Oil exhaustion could, thus occur in just 25 to 30 years. Again, bringing the civilization form that we have grown accustomed to an end. Meaning to avoid a collapse before 2100 - a drastic reduction in oil (energy use) or consumption (population) is required in the next few years. Those numbers for both oil and population look to run somewhere in the order of billions because you cannot wait until a few years before the very end to change the key variables. 

Now if we put those back-burner threats and/or a few black swan events back into the mix, it is a virtual certainty that the current civilization form will not last past fifty years. And whatever civilization form does survive - the numbers are highly likely to be billions lower than today's population figures- making the possibility of complete extinction by 2100; a 50/50 bet in some minds. Moreover some form of de facto extinction could also occur much sooner, if in the worst case, oil exhaustion and its implications take effect in 25 years or less.

So wot me worry? Sure do ...  but these figures could also be overly optimistic for a number of reasons. (#1: OPEC overstates reserves?) And so what is about to unfold is the most horrific series of global events and circumstances ever experienced during our short planetary visit. The stakes are in the billions. Knowing this shoulders a responsibility, but it is one that we can do very little to change it seems, as the global inertia mentioned is too great.

For instance, what right would we have to tell China and India, or even Russia, to stop growing so that we can continue on our merry addictive energy consuming ways? What are the chances they'd agree? None and none. So when push comes to shove, major global conflicts are in the cards and remember they will not be using sticks and stones. Einstein said that would not be not the weapon of choice until the Fourth World War - ah, what does he know anyway?

If anyone thinks that oil exhaustion does not bring on major conflicts, note that both Syria and Egypt had just recently passed peak oil production, and also had rapidly growing populations too. They used their oil export revenues to pay for imported food stocks. The rest is headlines - hungry people get mad, and topple governments

Worries? Try this little "understatement' that was used once by a cherubic cigar-smoking character   - "There is a Gathering Storm.'  Things may be closer than we think! 

Of Kind Regards

Dr Peter G Kinesa
October 1, 2013  

Supporting Charts:  Peak Oil Syria and Egypt 

Syria

Egpyt

Who's Planning World's End - Stephen Hawking?

Who's Planning World's End - Stephen Hawking? 

"What! Now they even started a committee?"

Do you ever have that sneaky suspicion with all the news about climate change, biosphere collapse, financial instability, political strife and war, overpopulation and social upheaval that the world is soon coming to an end? Who ever really thought it could go on forever anyhow? So if you do have those sinking feelings, your thoughts are in line with Stephen Hawking and other "Big Brains" who are getting together to formulate plans for the end of the world.

This article (linked above) from The Independent lists the members of this elite committee along with its agenda of  possible end-game scenarios. Two things are obvious to our "Little Brains" firstly, is the people who are missing on this committee, and secondly, the short list of scenarios. We could add at least ten more possible end-games stories. And more likely ones too. .

That in itself speaks volumes - but we hope these guys are smart enough to realize that once they design their end of the world plan - don't forget to pass it around to the rest of us.

Gotta hand to our great leaders - but never forget they are the same one's that got us here!

Dr Peter G Kinesa

September 18, 2013

P.S. By the way, had the opportunity to discuss this topic with a poet friend. And we both agreed that the problem with this exercise is that they are concerned about singular events and not processes i.e. sequential serial events. In other words,why should time be relevant to the expected outcome being studied? Anyway he observed,  "because that was the road less travelled, and that would make all the difference!" 

Ahhh Poets... What do they know? 

What if there are aliens? And they're here already?