Gotham's Gas Pipeline Mess Exploding???

What's So Amusing?

Beneath Cities, a Decaying Tangle of Gas Pipes

By PATRICK McGEEHAN, RUSS BUETTNER and DAVID W. CHEN(

The New York Times: – It is a danger hidden beneath the streets of New York City, unseen and rarely noticed: 6,302 miles of pipes transporting natural gas.

Leaks, like the one that is believed to have led to the explosion that killed eight people in East Harlem this month, are startlingly common, numbering in the thousands every year, federal records show.

Consolidated Edison, whose pipes supplied the two buildings levelled by the explosion, had the highest rate of leaks in the country among natural gas operators whose networks totalled at least 100 miles, according to a New York Times analysis of records collected by the federal Department of Transportation for 2012, the most recent year data was available.

The chief culprit, according to experts, is the perilous state of New York City’s underground network, one of the oldest in the country and a glaring example of America’s crumbling infrastructure. 

In 2012 alone, Con Edison and National Grid, the other distributor of natural gas in the city, reported 9,906 leaks in their combined systems, which serve the city and Westchester County. More than half of them were considered hazardous because of the dangers they posed to people or property, federal records show. (There are more than 1.2 million miles of gas main pipes across the country. Last year, gas distributors nationwide reported an average of 12 leaks per 100 miles of those pipes.)

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Financial Energy Limits Hit Sooner - The End of Fossil Energy Blog

http://endofenergy.blogspot.ca/

Why EIA, IEA

and Randers'

 2052 Energy 

Forecasts are 

Wrong  

By Gail Tverberg

What is the correct way to model the future course of energy and the economy? There are clearly huge amounts of oil, coal, and natural gas in the ground.  With different approaches, researchers can obtain vastly different indications. I will show that the real issue is most researchers are modeling the wrong limit.

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Comments:

There is one economic observation that is profound and pervasive to all global physical-economic theory, metrics and activity. That is the strong positive correlation that energy use; particularly oil, has with the exponential growth in GDP, stock markets, food production, population and a host of other outcomes, over the past 150 years. That is why it is extremely important to know and understand that when this trend turns southwards its implications will have extra-ordinary effects on the nature, extent and quality of all human activity. Nothing is more important than this in so many respects.

Dr Peter G Kinesa
March 22, 2014

#Scarcity --Humanity's Final Chapter

“Oil depletion and climate change will create an entirely new context in which political struggles will be played out . Within that context, it is not just freedom, democracy and equality that are at stake, but the survival of billions of humans and of whole ecosystems”

Richard Heinberg, Powerdown

Scarcity 
Humanity's Final Chapter 
 First Financial Insights 

 Christopher O Clugston

FIRST FINANCIAL INSIGHTS: SCARCITY - Humanity's Final Chapter

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Scarcity   Humanity’s Final Chapter*      "Diminishing Returns"  

Here is another one of our top authors and books, whose post has been attracting a lot of international traffic over the past six months. So again, we will save you the inconvenience of searching the FFI site, and re post it here.

It is important for all of us to understand the state of this planet and where mainstream economic doctrine and the economic system it authored is taking humanity.Not only are we on the verge of running out of oil in forty to fifty years, but we also coincidentally face exhausting most other key minerals required for the consumer industrial complex.  A complex designed by naive thespians who practiced their dark art of economics in despairing satanic shadows. Will their "invisible hand" save of us from a certain fate? Or perhaps there is another Santa Claus in the wings to be brewed with the words of these crafty sorcerers?

Economists long ignored inconvenient physical and mathematically  realities along with the laws of the universe that creates the entropic behaviour, pointed out by Paul Chefurka, in Paradise Lost, that governs all species on all planets.There are no dispensations in physics. These concepts alone are more important to understand and apply than any other knowledge we have ever uncovered during our short planetary journey. 

So if Chris Clugston, Paul Chefurka and Richard Hienberg, along with all the other Peak Everything believers are right - then a very grim time awaits our species in a few short decades. So please take a little bit of time to think about the billions of our fellows, our grandchildren, or even our children, who will be literally left out in cold and in the dark. What should we say to them as they grimace with their lonely moments of fate -  moments that we hold  unquestionable responsibilities for.

Again, take a little time to put yourself in their shoes and imagine what they could face, when billions of people are left with an empty cupboard to find their way. It will be no Hollywood story - it will be their reality of blank stares.

What will the economists say then ? And us, what do we say?  Sorry?

Somehow, apologies can never be enough...

Dr Peter G Kinesa

November 11, 2013   

 “The loneliest moment in someone’s life is when they are watching their whole world fall apart and all they can do is stare blankly”

F. Scott Fitzgerald, The Great Gatsby 

   

Marc Faber's Highly-Unprofessional Know-It-All Interview

Marc Faber's Highly- Unprofessional Know-It-All Interview 

  Thai TV, September 20, 2013

Their Business Greats Tiger Team

There is little doubt the Marc has a fairly good grasp of the technical issues related to the global financial situatIon. Whether he is right or wrong is another matter. He conveys a strong sense of certitude with regard to his thoughts and opinions. Such an attitude should be expected from an investment promoter. 

The Fed is in a bind and there are signs that the QE program is faltering. As he points out, the ten year treasuries have risen from a low of about 1.5% a year ago, to almost to 3% today. As he says, "that's a 100% increase." Marc believes that the Fed will continue with its QE program with little; if any, tapering for some time, in an meager effort to hold down  low long-bond rates. By now, everyone is aware that a surge in these rates would be devastating to the global financial system and the overbought stock markets. We go along with his view.

He also makes reference to the absurdity of Keynesian and Neo-Keynesian (Turbocharged) economists - the latter apparently proposes fiscal deficits of $5 Trillion to resolve the US's economic problems. While we agree that such a move is unconscionable, Dr. Doom provides us with little insight into what remedies he would alternatively propose.

This lack of a deep understanding of the physical existential forces driving the world's economy is apparent in most of this interview. The very fact that Marc entirely discounts, any and all, participation or insights from academia, and concurrently holds business opinions and views, as the ultimate source of a monopolistic truth, speaks volumes as to the depth and objective quality of Marc's thinking, information, sources and analysis. This negativity further suggests a"know-it-all" attitude bias that tears apart the speaker's credibility, leading us to distrust the balance, integrity and substance of all else that was asserted. To be short, we were taken aback by the utter short-sightedness and arrogance of this remark and related thoughts.

This, of course, deepens our concern and skepticism about such pundits who operate with multiple narrow-minded agendas.  We would prefer a more open, professional approach to information, sources and thinking. Similar to the philosophical thoughts of Socrates: "the only true wisdom is in knowing that you know nothing." And maybe Abraham Lincoln's approach would also be useful to opening a wider discourse of opposing or alternative views for better decisions. Lincoln recognized that all of us have our limitations; so he sought the insights, company and advice of seven or eight folks smarter than himself. Hmm. Maybe even an academic or two?

Marc, we fully recognize and believe that you are entitled to your opinions regarding all these useless academics  - but then again, what do we know?

Dr Peter G Kinesa
September 26, 2013  

Our Humble Academic Bonehead Team   

              

  

FIRST FINANCIAL INSIGHTS: CREDIT BUBBLE BIGGER THAN 2008

FIRST FINANCIAL INSIGHTS: CREDIT BUBBLE BIGGER THAN 2008: 

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CREDIT BUBBLE BIGGER THAN 2008 (Also Read Recent "The Telegraph" Article )  How could credit circumstances be worse than 2008? Did we not le...

"Why would you ever trade government guaranteed bonds for highly-levered, riskier, de facto bank equity that poses as a debt instrument? Is there a smell of personal interest here?" 

International Bank Regulator - 2013

Did you ever wonder who was selling all those long treasury bonds to the Fed? Where was all that money going? Bonds? Investments? Bonuses?  Well, gleaning from the content, in both the FFI and The Telegraph articles, the money trail looks pretty clear. Here is what we make of it, in a nutshell.

Big Banks sell their bonds to the Fed, then take the proceeds and buy other Banks' debt, that may be converted to equity should the other Bank's ratio fall, say, below 10%. An event that is almost certain to occur once rates spike upwards and all the Banks have to mark to market monetary assets. Marked to market accounting of these assets is sure to result in write-offs that correspondingly affects each Bank's capital structures. These debt instruments are simply a clever way to inject capital into the banks, so that they remain solid even as the rest of us suffer when interest rates rise.

This is also what you call a "Country Club Bail-Out' that quietly escapes the attention and scrutiny of  the media, pundits, public and, of course, our brilliant politicians. So under the radar, Uncle Ben is shelling-out up to $85 Billion monthly, to shore up Banks prior to the much anticipated interest-rate driven write-offs - "without congressional authorization." Nice trick. What's worse? Even if you explained this simple shell game to those political wizards, sadly there is no guarantee they would show even a slight flicker of understanding. 

For the stability of the financial system this is, however, a good move and should avoid the recording of losses by Banks provided that the conversion price provides for an equal dollar for dollar exchange of securities. Afterwards though, the capital positions of these Banks could be exposed to market fluctuations - so it is still fraught with risk issues down the road.

Banksters should also be personally happy with this short-term bail-out insurance, provided to protect their loans, businesses and  huge bonus entitlements  Who loses? Well, in the end it's the taxpayers who are quietly bailing out the Banks, without anyone being the wiser simply because they are doing it ahead of time with an invisible financial wand. Real estate will also get clobbered, unless owners have hedged their positions; say, by shorting long bonds. And long-term the economy and future generations will get to pay the biggest price!    

Just clever, sneaky or magical finance? Or fraudulent tricks? Hmm.

Dr Peter G Kinesa
September 21, 2013  

The Real QE Magic... 
Is it DEBT or EQUITY? 


   

Professor Erle C Ellis - Miracles to Save Japan and World Economy

Professor Erle C Ellis - Miracles to Save Japan and World Economy

Japan's Nuclear Problems Persist 

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This above linked article from The Guardian underscores our deep concerns about the world's third largest economy. The country is shutting down its last nuclear plant for maintenance and is unlikely to see a prompt return to this energy source any time soon. Maybe 2015. That means greater reliance on imports such as liquid natural gas  leading to soaring energy costs for business and consumers. Just another blow to an already long-ravaged economy.

This also affects export trade as costs will certainly rise. In order  to compete and maintain trade volumes, the yen will undergo a further period of downward pressures, but this creates a vicious circle as import cost will concurrently rise. Japan is starting to show the same symptoms as other resource strapped nations including the incumbent social unrest.

One final point, this all has nothing to do with overpopulation, resource scarcity, peak oil, climate change nor collapsing biodiversity according to the renowned Professor Erle C Ellis, University of Maryland. Predicting based on local sources that Japan is just moments from building a new top-super-secret technology that converts radioactive water into oil and other minerals. A miracle device that will allow for further exponential growth into a bright new future. Ellis believes that more miracles create the economic path to future prosperity   

Otherwise, the Japanese miracle is now just a long old memory!

Dr Peter G Kinesa

September 17, 2013

"Miracles - take at look at me now!"

Professor, Erle C Ellis, PHD

University of Maryland

#Bugonomics - What Butterflies Too?

Bugonomics - What Butterflies Too?

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Visit this article's slideshow to view the varied beauty of this species

Imagine a world without butterflies - and poems, and romance, and dreams that touch the heart of destiny..

Since 1990, the EU butterfly population has been on the decline with implications that affects crops and resultant food production. And a 50% drop in grassland butterflies is significant because it is a key indicator of the state of bio-diversity. Remember  no bugs - no economy - and then food becomes an issue.

Not being in a position to substantiate these reports, we however sense there is some truth to the issue by virtue of many corroborations. Consider all the evidence regarding climate change as well; it becomes straightforward to conclude that as the climate swaggers about, other variables are sure to be effected. Bugs are no exception.

All this gets back to one principle of "Bugonomics" insofar-as non-financial metrics are critical indicators of macro-economic well-being and better identify concerns that would seriously impair economic viability. Just like a doctor who must go beyond the window-dressing by probing for underlying concerns with modern scientific tools.

In this case, the demise of butterflies and other bugs points us towards an understanding of the deeper causes. These causes are tied to bio-chemical farming technology used to enhance crop production to feed ever-expanding global populations whose growth has been supported and exacerbated by fossil fuels along with neo-classical economic theory. A theory that blindly encourages growth with no regard for its consequences.

At this juncture, we may falsely believe that we are winning the  "Bug Battle", but in the end the champions are sure to be different. And that should bug (sic) a lot of us!  

Dr. Peter G Kinesa  
August 30, 2013

We are the Champions!

   

The Marc Faber Blog Childish Remarks: "The FED Asset Purchase Disaster?"

The Marc Faber Blog : Childish Remarks -The Asset Purchase programme of the Fed has been a complete Disaster

Doctor Faber's conclusions are first premature and more than likely wrong. 

In fact, it will be difficult to measure how effective Fed policy has been or will be as history has yet to unfold. Had Uncle Ben not implemented this program, then interest rates no doubt would be much higher than they are today. There are a lot of very nervous long-bond holders who were obviously more than happy to pass their holdings back to the Fed. Everyone is living in fear of a sharp spike in the long rates that would absolutely clobber the principal market value of these bonds.

But QE is not just about keeping rates low, it is also a crafty way to hold asset values in place, including the equity market. This may actually be its main purpose. The last thing the Fed and Obama needs is to have huge bond losses realized and recorded by banks, portfolios, and other financial intermediaries.

Such losses would vacuum up all the liquidity in the repo, bond and money markets faster than Lehman's 2008 debacle, as well as knocking the proverbial crap out of their respective equity boxes. Think about it - this prevention is moping up about 40 billion (possibly more) monthly in marked-to-market accounting losses that would be caused by sharp rate  increases.

Like the Fed we are holding back a few cards here, but in all likelihood, there is more to the Fed's QE policy actions than meets the eye - and Marc should be a little more careful with his remarks - they come across as premature and childish! 

And that's being kind.

Dr Peter G Kinesa 
August 28, 2013 

Marked to QE Market

Uncle Ben's Converted Losses 

                

PLATINUM WEALTH PARTNERS -Jim Rogers #Gold #Commodities #USDollar

PLATINUM WEALTH PARTNERS:

Week Ended, August 25, 2013

DR. PETER G. KINESA'S
INTERNATIONAL INSIGHTS

"PLATINUM WEALTH PARTNERS"

VISIT OUR WEBSITE

PLATINUM WEALTH PARTNERS

www.pwa2100.blogspot.com

The Jim Rogers Blog 

 War in Syria Commodity Prices go to Moon? 

Does this mean we should land on the moon again for bargains? Folks could be waiting there right now looking for our business. Who, we wonder?

Commodity prices are ready to shoot upwards whether there is a war in Syria or any big event somewhere else on the planet. Syria is somewhat irrelevant in this regard as markets are poised more on fundamentals to lift skyward.

The world is more fragile today than it was twenty years ago for obvious reasons. More people, fewer resources and wider geo-political tensions and instability. For more worries you may add in climate change, wildfires, water supplies and worst - fewer and fewer pollinating bugs. And that's the war we are really losing sleep over.

Bottom Line: Anyday, anything, or anytime - LIFT OFF ALICE!

PLATINUM WEALTH PARTNERS

First Financial Insights

August 24, 2013

To the Moon...

The Jim Rogers Blog

Financial Calamity - US Dollar Collapse? 
(Read and Hear More)

Just cannot see eye to eye with Jim on the collapse of the US dollar, albeit the financial calamity is more or less a hangover from the 2008 Meltdown and remains plausible. Indeed we had  forecasted such a collapse two years back, by 2020. Bonds yes; but a currency short is fraught with too many pitfalls.

There are many reasons behind the likely stability embedded in the US dollar in such times. Two are big ones. One,  it will simply win by default because other currencies that are competitive, in any significant way, should be that much worse off in the turbulent economic times ahead. Remember, the US is a Hegemony with about 60 -70% of the world's resources and economies within its influences and/or control. There is little else in terms of a viable surrogate exchange media that could handle the global financial volume and liquidity needs as well. Former communist countries have huge credibility issues to overcome to garner any trust for this role.

But most importantly - they have bigger GUNS! In the end, that may be all that matters. 

PLATINUM WEALTH PARTNERS

First Financial Insights

August 22, 2013 

Pentagon 2020 Outlook:

 Continues to See Strong US Dollar

Faber Buys #Sprott - Is On-Going Disclosure Required? 

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"BUY GOLD???"

While we have long held a position that in the long-run there is no legitimate or logical reason based on sequential forward events, and both historical asset-class performance and purchasing power losses over the past thirty-three years to own this object, yet this psychotic placebo continues to attract the attention of speculators.  Nouriel Roubini had candidly referred to it as a "barbaric relic" - his kind diplomacy is respected. 

So why do promoters such as Dr Doom continue with there promotions despite all this? We can presume that they understand the psychosis of small investors attracted to such a cure all placebo and operate to take advantage of their fantasy. The above purchase of Sprott affirms the possibility of such a tactic by promoters. 

But the most important issue is not whether to buy or sell this object - the real issue is disclosure. That is will the promoters advise the public of subsequent sales before they are effected or will they cleverly front-run them in various de facto forms ahead of small investors, underneath the radar of a complex myriad of international rules, laws and regulations?

Funny thing, we really don't expect  answers to these questions any time soon.

PLATINUM WEALTH PARTNERS

First Financial Insights 

August 20, 2013  

Just Keeping them ...