The Boston Globe - Chief of US Pacific Forces Calls Climate Biggest Worry

Chief of US Pacific Forces Calls Climate Biggest Worry 

click above

When the US military realizes and states that climate change is one of the greatest threats to security we should be very concerned. Particularly, when we considered that often coined oxymoron " Military Intelligence" . Think about how much it takes these guys to figure things out, after all these years?

Enough said,  and let's have Admiral Samuel Locklear tell us about their profound "Ah Ha" moment -  I don't want to rain on their parade.

Dr Peter G Kinesa
April  15, 2013   

"Folks, you will never believe what I am about to tell you... " 

China Feels Inflation, CPI Spikes

China Feels Inflation, CPI Spikes

Before getting into the deeper issues - the first thing to put on the table is the CPI number itself. Who believes any financial number coming out of China?
Who believes that an economy can grow at 5,7 or 10% without experiencing any inflation? Who believes that an economy with excessive liquidity can hold prices down? Then there's the growing need to import more and more commodities... well, you can decide this one.

The real concern is whether currency games are going to become the new form of protectionism - a new form of trade war. With so many countries debasing their currencies - global inflation is certain to follow as more funny sovereign paper will be needed to buy real things. Now if we take the abstracts out of all this and remember that we are past peak everything  - prices of all commodities are sure  to climb dramatically. Some will be more intense than others.

Chinese inflation - you can bet the farm on it. But it is the new protectionism we are most concerned about and the trade of cheap, oppressed labour for scarcer resources. Who will level the playing field now?

Dr Peter G Kinesa
April 14, 2013

How's about a level playing field too?

  

BBC News - Canadian Glaciers Face "Big Losses"

BBC News - Canadian Glaciers Face "Big Losses"

click here

Once , a long  time ago, the Artic was as warm as the Everglades; ask any geologist. By all accounts, we are prematurely heading back that way at a rapid rate. Climate denial will not stop the existential feedback systems that warm the planet taking human enterprise to its knees. We cannot just click our heels and return back to Kansas.  The neo-classic economic fairy tale is coming to a very dreadful end. We are melting under its growth mantra.

Dr Peter G  Kinesa

April 8, 2013

"Look what you've done, I'm melting, melting..."

If only the planet could talk -

Marc Faber: Invest Overseas, The Fed Party Is Over

Marc Faber: Invest Overseas, The Fed Party Is Over

What's in a number anyway? Faber says the FED balance sheet is over $3 trillion. However, the US government owes about $14 trillion, thusly, putting the total US government balance sheet at $14 trillion number. Does it include the FED's balance sheet? Actually, I don't know right now.

But, I can report what the legendary fixed income guru - Bill Gross; PIMCO, estimates. He puts total US government debt at a figure of  over $100 trillion. His number also includes all future payments and contingencies on a present value basis. Put another way, this is the value of all known oil reserves that are set to exhaust in about 40 years.

Ever wonder if this debt can ever be repaid ? Do not spend a lot of time thinking about it.

Dr Peter G Kinesa
February 20, 2013

What do you mean we're broke?  

Filipino super-typhoon an ominous warning of climate change impact

Filipino super-typhoon an ominous warning of climate change impact

click above

If anyone has any doubts about climate change and its impacts, you should read thsi article from The Guardian/ If you can still sleep at nights - you probaly still don't get it or you are enjoying your medications.

Dr Peter G Kinesa

Febraury 19, 2013

Wake up call ???

  

INVESTORS' INSIGHTS -Marc Faber Interview with MoneyControl.com

INVESTORS' INSIGHTS - February 12, 2013

Markets at Tipping Point of Funny Money Games

There is little doubt that the inflation and bond market funny money game will come to an end sending the teetering bond and equity markets into a free fall. The yellow flags are out because interest rates have been too low for too long, and inflation is dramtically higher than reported. 

Investors can only tolerate negative real returns for so long before they seek higher ground. Finding the higher ground is the gist of their challenge.

Dr Peter G Kinesa

February 13, 2012  

Marc Faber Interview with MoneyControl.com

Marc believes markets are topping out and points to Apple's 30% decline as to how stocks can rise then fall back again. So short term, he thinks that a 10 to 30% reversal is still in the cards. He points to the sell off that occurred in 1987, when stocks collapsed 40% in two month after a preceding 44% run up.

We concur with Faber, that the risks are high in the short-term, but we know that markets can climb the wall of worry, despite rational fundamentals. It has its own mind; perhaps abetted by the flash- traders dance, thereby becoming more of a casino. However, as there is no strong rational for any long-term positive sentiment, we are biased towards short positions particularly in US Banks, Brokers and Treasuries. Tech companies should also see valuations punished more than the broader market. Facebook and Apple are still high on the list.

The turning point will be the collapse in Bond Market that is long over due, as everyone knows that the inflation figures are being rigged by Washington to keep rates low. This game cannot last, as sooner or later the market sees through such things; albeit the FED can continue to prop it up by printing more money.

These are times to be extra careful. Period

First Financial Insights
February 12, 2013

Funny Money Games: When Seven is Eleven?

The Finance Lounge: Investing in emerging markets

The Finance Lounge: Investing in emerging markets:

Economic globalization has abolished trade and investment barriers, and has integrated global supply chains. In this context, emerging m...

What drugs are theses guys on? Sure in the short term there are  some perceived benefits regarding globalization.  But, the operative word is perceived, and perceptions are not realities. For in reality there are few; if any, benefits from global trade and investing, save for the exchange of ideas that may be localized within a regional economy.

Why few? Briefly all globalization has allowed us to do is essentially move the rest of the world closer to an assimilation of the Western industrial-consumer complex. That is not good by any means. Because it is a complex that accelerates climate chaos, resource exhaustion, bio-sphere destruction, over population and social unrest. Ingredients of extinction.

Thus, globalization acts to ensure the more rapid extinction of the human species from this planet. What idiot really thinks it was a good idea? Who? O'Really?

Dr Peter G Kinesa
January 14, 2013

There are too many villages missing their... well, you know?   

FISCAL CLIFF - Where are the Monkeys?

FISCAL CLIFF - Where are the Monkeys?
     

What constitution? What democratic process? Where are those who still believe in the prepositions defining of, by, for, and most utmostly with the people? These are the few questions that the American people have every right to ask. Then...

So we ask; where are the monkeys?

Dr. Peter G Kinesa 

December 27,2013

What else is there to say?

Jim Rogers : The Ultimate End Game for the US is to Be Bailed Out by the IMF

Jim Rogers : The Ultimate End Game for the US is to Be Bailed Out by the IMF

And what would the IMF bail them out with, as the US dollar is the world"s reserve currency? Food stamps? Yet the likelihood of such an event grows every day with the accumulation of debt caused by the US's annual fiscal deficits. Add in the off-balance sheet contingent liabilities, then the current debt figure climbs to over 100 trillion, as estimated by Bill Gross - PIMCO.

What if interest rates climb to 10%, causing a nine-fold increase in interest carrying costs on 100 trillion?

The answer: the Fiscal Abyss - Bankruptcy. So the mathematics tells us, at some point, events will simply leap into a financial death spiral. The End Game.


Dr Peter G Kinesa
December 18, 2012

Follies of Debt - The END GAME ?
 

 

 

 

Jim Rogers : If you haven't already downgraded US ...

Jim Rogers : If you haven't already downgraded US in your mind, do so now

We have. But the question is how far to downgrade the world's reserve currency? Which leads to the bigger question: How long should we consider this as the currency of last resort? Not an easy answer, however when it loses this special status -- Watch Out! That would be the last stand, clearly signalling the fall of the American Hegemony. The implications are immeasurable.

But if you haven't already done so in your own mind, do so now!

First Financial Insights
December 3, 2012

Don't ask... Don't Tell

 

 

 

First of all,  let me say hello to our friends in Germany, Sweden, India, Swizterland, Netherlands and the United Kingdom for their support, comments, insights and questions over the past month. Your thoughts keep us on our toes and provide much valued feedback. Please continue.

 

Here's a post from today's Investors" Insights I enjoyed and received permission to post concurrently.

 

Dr Peter G Kinesa

December 3, 2012 

The Fall of Lehman Brothers - Finance Documentaries

The Fall of Lehman Brothers - Finance Documentaries


These guys obviously were not too big to fail, but the implications of their failure reverberated around the world and triggered the biggest bailout of Banks and Dealers in US history. The question is: Have we leaned anything from this financial disaster? Time will voice its decision; sooner, or later.

Our recommended  business book list ranked "Too Big To Fail"  #7 of all time top ten, because of the importance of  events leading to and occuring after Lehman's demise. A blow by blow account of the power players in Washington and Wall Street,  provides a fly-on-the-wall perspective of their tense inner workings.

The book  and documentary should provide you with an informed view of a time, when the world of finance was mere moments from collapse.


Dr Peter G Kinesa
November 22,2012

Socialist Capitalism ?

Marc Faber : There will be Pain , very substantial Pain

Marc Faber : There will be Pain , very substantial Pain

For sure Marc. Moreover, we are happy you are finally aligned with our economic thinking. The  blog below (Economic Collapse 2020: A Failed Theory)  sets out our view from over a year ago, when we forecasted a financial collapse by 2020. A forecast that compares to Mr. Fabers' and again affirms why First Financial Insights have been accurately predicting events over the past couple of decades. Sorry - just tooting our horns a bit.

To summarize here are a few of the critical drivers:

Outdated abstractionist economic theory prevails - experts slow recognizing that physical economics will override their neo-classical theory. Print money and add more debt. Too bad for everyone.

Not much has changed since 2008, and the leverage and risk may be greater now. Memories are short.

There are imbalances in trade and finance that continue to grow, despite sluggish activity. Some  Banks and Brokers assets are still growing at unsustainable rates relative to global GDP - there will be a reckoning.

Interest rates are too low, too long - setting the stage for a mathematical deflation in asset values that could  have staggering implications; turning into social unrest - and then, geo-political confrontation. History at it again.

Resources deplete while populations grow. In the end, this will never pencil out. 

Euro crisis is still chugging along. Using outdated fiscal and monetary measures cannot affect real or physical economy.The whole thing never made sense because it distorted the benefits of comparative advantage, and the cultural and historical aspects were not homogeneous thereby also impeding free flowing labour. It encouraged inefficiencies, but concentrated power.  

While in the short term large abstractionist institutions are too big to fail, it is naive to think that anything is ever physically too big to fail. Economic entropy is a cruel mistress .


Dr Peter G Kinesa
November 21, 2012

Indeed Entropy: You are cruel.

Marc Faber : Ben Bernanke can drop as many Dollar bills as he likes

Marc Faber : Ben Bernanke can drop as many Dollar bills as he likes

The creation of fiat currency has reached a tipping point, particularly for countries in the Euro zone. Why? First, it should be self-evident that even with low rates, there has been no uplift in capital formation or new business activity. One would expect that even established firms would be escalating there capital expenditures. They are not! Why? There are few sensible opportunities and the general economy is stuck in a liquidity- valuation trap. Why? Well, for one Greece, Spain, Italy and the others have fewer resources to exploit while consumers remain handcuffed at the pocket book.

So Uncle Ben might as well be back creating converted rice, as it will have about the same effect on this Ice Age for global markets, business and economies.

Dr Peter G Kinesa
November 17,2012

Uncle Ben's Converted Rice?

 

 



Jim Rogers Blog: 2013-14: A Slowdown Is Coming

Jim Rogers Blog: 2013-14: A Slowdown Is Coming: 

America is going to have a slowdown in 2013-14, there will be fewer jobs, more unemployment and turmoil in oil and currency markets. - in Ec...

There is no doubt about it - and, there is very little left in terms of fiscal or monetary tools to fix this mess... essentially the wreckage of the 2008 crisis. Abtractionist economists are finally facing the end game of their alchemist remedies and as we have said: the markets remain in the " The Mother of All Bear Markets" that could last for years...if not. decades.

What we face is the physical realty of drawing blood from a stone, a shrinking pie of resources mixed with a growing number of diners; remains a  hard mathematical constraint to any further growth, particularly on a per capita basis - the only metric that really counts.

Welcome back to Hoover Town.

Dr Peter G Kinesa
November 15, 2012   


Crowd awaiting 2016 "State of the Union Address" - Washington Post,  

The Daily Bell - Is the Age of the PetroDollar Over?



The Daily Bell - Is the Age of the PetroDollar Over?

It should never cease to amaze us how certain interests will always conjure up numbers to forge a rabbit-out-of the-hat solution to problems that have been festering for years. Cut to the chase guys. Its all about the longevity of our species - and here the numbers are pretty easy to define.

All other things being equal cut the population down from 7 billion to 1 billion and you invariably extend our existence seven fold. In all likelihood, that's  just another 700 to 1,000 years. Deeper cuts would be needed if we strive to achieve a more extended inhabitance of the planet.

Future generations do not have a democratic voice in this decision, so it is up to us to decide our species' date with the cliffs of time. Thus far, the preference is clearly seeking a sooner rather than later end to the human experiment. A short apology to future kinfolks appears to suffice.

Add to this the possibility of a nuclear winter at the whims of geo-political posturing - well, even the above numbers become overly optimistic. So keep on fracking, drilling and mining, but no matter however you extract it, the conclusions are dim for the hopes and possibilities of future generations. Again, sorry about that!

Dr. Peter G Kinesa

Goldman Sachs Documentary - Finance Documentaries

Alice In Wonderland - join the party.



Goldman Sachs Documentary - Finance Documentaries


Back in 2008 these Masters of Abstraction were just moments away from collapse. Hey, they were just Too Big to Fail...for now.Remember they produce nothing, shuffle paper and convince the world that their negative-sum game is a positive-sum game. Funny mathematics and linguistics, aided by the witchcraft of lawyers and accountants produces something from nothing that defies the laws of thermo dynamics and theological doctrine.

But sooner or later the kids grow up to find out that Santa Claus, The Tooth Fairy and Easter Bunny are inventions of our imaginations. Inventions created by the likes of the Mad Hatter at Mad Sachs - who truly believe they will never grow up - however, as history proves and as stories go... All Mad Things Must Come to an End.


Dr. Peter G Kinesa

Remember...Nothing is Forever

Marc Faber: Middle East Will Blow Up and Affect Markets

So much for overpopulation and economic growth.

Marc Faber: Middle East Will Blow Up and Affect Markets

Marc understands that we are still faced with the perils of a nuclear war that will make all other issues redundant. It is worse now than the Cold War period because of the threats of rogue nations or  non-aligned agents. And we remain under  hair-trigger alert that requires the decision as to whether to create a World Obilteration: in just 15 minutes. In fact, the Russian's system (Perimeter) of retaliation could be launched automatically based on sensors and computer systems that detect such a War in the Middle East - a War that is percieved by their automated system to be a first strike attack on their nation - that ISN'T.

"Affect Markets" is thus the understatement of all time - as it will simply destroy them forever! So it is - as our timeclock ticks at just 15 minutes to Doomsday...

D Peter G Kinesa

First Financial Insights Inc.: Global Stocks to Collapse

America's prospects are good for the next ten  years. Hmm..

 

First Financial Insights Inc.: Global Stocks to Collapse:

   Oh my... Here we go again!   Global Stocks to Collapse by 50% Fuelled  by Credit Crunch - Markets Mel...


While global markets moved downwards significantly last year shortly after this projection; our view remained unchanged based on fundamentals mentioned and financial mathematics. Oh baby - its a wild world ... and it's hard to get by just on a smile.

Dr. Peter G Kinesa   

Marc Faber: Markets Will Drop at Least 20%

There she goes???

Marc Faber: Markets Will Drop at Least 20%

Any signifcant spike in long rates could make matters much worse as we have been warning for months now. Plus as the likelihood of a geo-political event increases so does market risk and the risks to the downside. Credit crunch in eurozone could just incinerate all values making equities difficult to justify with high systemic risks pushing to crush profits and liqidity. No Santa Claus ho ho hoing these days.


Dr Peter G Kinesa

Marc Faber : The Uncertainty is much higher than in the past

Marc Faber : The Uncertainty is much higher than in the past

By all measures.

Dr Peter G Kinesa