What could go wrong with the housing recovery in 2013?

What Could go Wrong with the US Housing Recovery in 2013?

Lots. Read and analyze these charts for yourself in the linked blog. Housing bubbles, particularly like the kind leading up to 2008 meltdown, do not correct themselves in just a few short years. This is at least a decade long struggle, that will be further hindered by increases in rates at some point, collapsing all asset values. And hence, all forms of construction.

Then there's the ripple effects on renovations, big box retail, industry employment and so on. This is a huge hangover for Main Street, caused by he biggest party of drunken Wall Street sailors in history. Yet, NO ONE WENT TO JAIL...

Ain't that America. Little pink houses for you and me.

Dr Peter G Kinesa
February 25, 2013

Ain't that America, for you and me?

Marc Faber: Invest Overseas, The Fed Party Is Over

Marc Faber: Invest Overseas, The Fed Party Is Over

What's in a number anyway? Faber says the FED balance sheet is over $3 trillion. However, the US government owes about $14 trillion, thusly, putting the total US government balance sheet at $14 trillion number. Does it include the FED's balance sheet? Actually, I don't know right now.

But, I can report what the legendary fixed income guru - Bill Gross; PIMCO, estimates. He puts total US government debt at a figure of  over $100 trillion. His number also includes all future payments and contingencies on a present value basis. Put another way, this is the value of all known oil reserves that are set to exhaust in about 40 years.

Ever wonder if this debt can ever be repaid ? Do not spend a lot of time thinking about it.

Dr Peter G Kinesa
February 20, 2013

What do you mean we're broke?  

FIRST FINANCIAL INSIGHTS: SCARCITY - Humanity's Final Chapter

FIRST FINANCIAL INSIGHTS: SCARCITY - Humanity's Final Chapter:

Article: Diminishing Returns

Here also are comments sent to my colleagues regarding this superb article:


Dearest Colleagues:

The attached article, by Chris Clugston, provides superb graphical and narrative insights and lessons on the implications of diminishing marginal returns from the extraction of NNRs.

Starting with Nauru, then Europe and now Fiscal Cliffs as evidence, no one can refute the direct relationship that exists between diminishing NNR extraction returns and the collapse of economies, and in turn societies. Applied neo-classical economic theory contributed much to those situations, and its shortcomings creep almost daily into the forefront of financial media headlines, but still with much of the same denial and rhetoric.

I also included First Financial Insights comments to Mr. Clugston, to further highlight that the hard constraints we face, are now becoming much more definable; to the point where we can project with certainty how long the planet's NNRs will be practical to extract for our production and consumption purposes. It is also assured, that most societies, economies and political structures will have succumbed to utter chaos and anarchy, well before the complete extraction of all NNRs occurs.

An answer to the last question would provide a reasoned thoughtful view as to when a possible exhaustion of NNRs could occur, but there are too many variables; I believe, to venture a definitive date. The same is true for climate chaos, economic collapse, natural events or nuclear annihilation. All are dark horses in a race to the human-experiment's finish line. All could garner some form of speculation as to which of them will enjoy the dark glory of its winner's circle.

One may handicap a favourite in this final race, but the ambiguity and random nature of events moving forward, to my knowledge, make it impossible to determine a winner. Until then, I guess we should just enjoy the discourse of our speculations, live in peace and fight the fight.

Of Kindest Regards,

Dr Peter G Kinesa

January 6, 2013

A Dark Horse Race to the Finish

FIRST FINANCIAL INSIGHTS: Economic Collapse 2020: A Failed Theory

FIRST FINANCIAL INSIGHTS: Economic Collapse 2020: A Failed Theory:


For the record we are authorized to post this First Financial Insights blog from last year. Not much has changed to affect this view. In fact, the tide of evidence and events keeps growing - supporting this forecast. Indeed many leading gurus are just now hopping on the bandwagon over one year later.  Marc Faber and Jim Rogers respective blogs today evidence this trend. Welcome aboard!

Comments posted below restate some of the key drivers behind our concluding prediction. A good idea to keep an eye on these over the months and years ahead.

Dr Peter G Kinesa
November 20, 2012

Welcome Aboard!