Stephen Hawking Committee- Frightening Numbers!

Frightening!

A Possible Numerical Outlook

Gathering Storm: Events or Process? 

Recently, I was asked by a close colleague, if I was now much more concerned because Stephen Hawking and others have formed a group that would look into building plans for possible end of world events? "Wot me worry?" as I smirkingly replied  with my Alfred E. Neuman grin. Of course, my outlook is grave; but my deep concern was  the actual mandate and agenda that the Committee had undertaken. Quite simply, their focus is on the events that may cause civilization's collapse, or even extinction.rather than the multitude of human and related environment processes that are slowly leading us to Doomsday's stormy gates.

So, in the next few weeks I will be writing to Professor Hawking's at Cambridge, setting forth my serious concerns for tabling with the committee..As a part of my writing, I will include the following illustrative example relating to the "process" of physical management, consumption and exhaustion of world oil reserves. Spelling out the possible frightening outlooks that could result from this process.Outlooks, affecting not only the expected longevity of human civilization's form, but also its very existence. 

For indeed, there is a gathering storm - and it may be closer than we think?    

Dr Peter G Kinesa
October 1, 2013      

Frightening! – A Possible Numerical Outlook

Wot me worry? Here some are some quick hold-in-your-head, back-of- the-envelope numbers. And 750 million at risk - that's a little on the light side.

Assume all other threats are put on the back burner and we only have the two issues of oil (energy) and population (energy addicts) to deal with, and no other "black swans". 

The stakes are actually billions of lost lives by the end of the century (85+ years from now) when the "best" estimates have annual oil extraction running near 5 billion barrels annually (some estimates are as low as 1 billion annually) . That's 15% of today’s volumes which is enough to support about 1 billion folks at today's consumption standards.

Worse case is that the 1.2 trillion barrels in reserves today is set to run out in about 40 years, which "at best," results in the collapse of our current form of oil-dependent civilization. There are no known alternatives that are sufficient in energy supply to replace the cheap and convenient energy abundance provided by oil. 

Even if we stopped giving birth to any more children, at this very moment , lasting for the next forty years, then under this assumptive case we could only extend the life of the oil supplies by about 10 years. They still would be exhausted in 50 years. So the form of civilization we know would still come to an abrupt halt only ten years later. Oil exhaustion is certainly analogous to running the human body without blood. Ain't going to happen.   

Add to this, that the 330 million Americans on this planet who consume about 32 barrels per capita, while China and India's 3 billion people consume, at best, 2 barrels per capita. They have  3 billion combined people moving towards Western standards of oil consumption. So instead of the reported 32 billion we now consume globally, in 15 to 20 years the number could double to 64 billion. Oil exhaustion could, thus occur in just 25 to 30 years. Again, bringing the civilization form that we have grown accustomed to an end. Meaning to avoid a collapse before 2100 - a drastic reduction in oil (energy use) or consumption (population) is required in the next few years. Those numbers for both oil and population look to run somewhere in the order of billions because you cannot wait until a few years before the very end to change the key variables. 

Now if we put those back-burner threats and/or a few black swan events back into the mix, it is a virtual certainty that the current civilization form will not last past fifty years. And whatever civilization form does survive - the numbers are highly likely to be billions lower than today's population figures- making the possibility of complete extinction by 2100; a 50/50 bet in some minds. Moreover some form of de facto extinction could also occur much sooner, if in the worst case, oil exhaustion and its implications take effect in 25 years or less.

So wot me worry? Sure do ...  but these figures could also be overly optimistic for a number of reasons. (#1: OPEC overstates reserves?) And so what is about to unfold is the most horrific series of global events and circumstances ever experienced during our short planetary visit. The stakes are in the billions. Knowing this shoulders a responsibility, but it is one that we can do very little to change it seems, as the global inertia mentioned is too great.

For instance, what right would we have to tell China and India, or even Russia, to stop growing so that we can continue on our merry addictive energy consuming ways? What are the chances they'd agree? None and none. So when push comes to shove, major global conflicts are in the cards and remember they will not be using sticks and stones. Einstein said that would not be not the weapon of choice until the Fourth World War - ah, what does he know anyway?

If anyone thinks that oil exhaustion does not bring on major conflicts, note that both Syria and Egypt had just recently passed peak oil production, and also had rapidly growing populations too. They used their oil export revenues to pay for imported food stocks. The rest is headlines - hungry people get mad, and topple governments

Worries? Try this little "understatement' that was used once by a cherubic cigar-smoking character   - "There is a Gathering Storm.'  Things may be closer than we think! 

Of Kind Regards

Dr Peter G Kinesa
October 1, 2013  

Supporting Charts:  Peak Oil Syria and Egypt 

Syria

Egpyt

DETROIT Files for Bankruptcy - What Next?

DETROIT files for Bankruptcy - What Next? 

"I've got sunshine on a cloudy day; when it's cold outside I've got..."

"In a world obsessed with the crazy frivolities of celebrity, reality television, sporting events and royal births, the real important events affecting human conditions are lost in the noise of a dysfunctional media 

- we need to grow up fast"

First Financial Insights

July 20,2013  

While the news may come as a shock to some, this much anticipated event is just another cut in the demise of this once iconic American city. It was the industrial centre, a heart and soul of culture, a symbol of America and its "enterpride" that had worked to win wars and put the nation at the top of the global economic stage. Its primary automotive products changed, forever, the way we worked, lived and transported the essentials of commerce and livelihoods, from here to there. 

The old saying was "what's good for General Motors is good for America," signifying just how critical this industry and city had once been to the nation's economy. Many questions and words will be written regarding the whys, hows and whats of the industry's turn of fortune and the city's plight. Some could point to globalization, poor management, foreign competition, social decay or a host of other reasons and combinations thereof. Still what is clear is, despite the best minds, efforts and resources: it happened! - creating even bigger concerns - How many more Detroits are there? Is this just the beginning? What next?

As for sure, sound and stable economies cannot be linked to only soft, intangible and abstract industries, such as social media and entertainment - hot air can only be exchanged for so much, and particularly, as the scarcity of key economic raw materials begins to play a larger hand in global economic activity.

Perhaps, it is also time to wake-up and have a close look at how global competitors run their economies to create their sustainable comparative advantage. Apparently, they have relied less on the ideals of free enterprise and apply "National Business Strategy" to set the actions, programs and goals for their endeavours, which in some cases, results in de facto slave labour conditions. Leading us to believe that free trade - is really an oxymoron. Free for whom?

So there is certainly much more analysis that needs to be done -including what and why levels of government and management failed to address this problem in the early stages. It is a situation that did not just occur overnight, but was apparent to many and allowed to fester for many years. And how many more cities are waiting in the wings?

So we will continue to monitor the events here, and also what appears to be an emerging trend nationally, More importantly we stress, this is a global economic disease that has spread to European countries such as Cyprus, Portugal and Greece, along with nations in the Middle East who are at the forefront of social  and political upheaval.

Is the abstructionist's economy finally falling into the grips of a finite planet's physical constraints. The logical conclusion is yes. So - What Next???

Dr Peter G Kinesa
July 20, 2013

What can make me feel this way...?

Sign in Egypt protest: “Wake up America, Obama backs a fascist regime in Egypt.” (Picture) | AgainstCronyCapitalism.org

Sign in Egypt protest: “Wake up America, Obama backs a fascist regime in Egypt.” (Picture) | AgainstCronyCapitalism.org

LANGUAGE TRANSLATION:

 "Feed them meat and potatoes"

What never ceases to amaze us is how everyone thinks this is all about ideology - what label would you like me to wear? Unless my belly is comfy; whatever politics, theology or economics you preach, you will not convince me or anyone else for that matter. Then once it is full. you have the opportunity to tell everyone why your way is the best way, and how it can and will be done forever. Then it becomes hard to fight the eternal benefits you promise with ideology through the narratives of science or logic. Who wants to give up a shot at eternity? So, almost everyone hedges their bets and buys into a label. Such is a simple view of life, from introspective nutshells -

Back to Egypt. Here again we can see that the real issue is "meat and potatoes." Seems as if they don't have enough to feed their ever expanding masses; they thus are prepared to follow anyone with a here-and-now solution, then worry about a bunch of tomorrows at some other convenient time. That makes sense.

Unfortunately, Egypt is on the growing list of Nauru Paradigm Countries, whereby the populations have overshot the delivery capacities of their physical economies - leading to shortages of just about everything needed to survive. Sadly, the WTO, IMF, World Bank, EU and leading economists and politicians have placed all of their bets on the abstractionist's economic models and are thereby insanely stoking the flames. When will they ever wake up?

So add Egypt to our coveted list of countries facing the final stages of the Nauru Paradigm, a nation that will now play out the Animal Farm parody for years to come, as long as incoming revolutionary leaders subscribe to outdated neo-classical economic theories - (Stories?) - they are guaranteed short careers in a shrinking world.



Dr Peter G Kinesa
July 5, 2013 

Egypt or Nauru: More Animal Farms?