HUGE FOOD PRICE SHOCKS AHEAD

California drought to cause fruit and veggie sticker shock




By Adam Shell   


 
 



(America’s Markets) – The price of  fruits and veggies is going up, causing possible sticker shock at the grocery store checkout. Blame one of California’s worst droughts ever for the rising prices.    Crop shortages, ranging from 10% to 20% depending on the type of crop, will lead to the higher prices, says professor Timothy Richards of the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University, citing recently completed research on which crops will likely be most affected.    “You’re probably going to see the biggest produce price increases on avocados, berries, broccoli, grapes, lettuce, melons, peppers, tomatoes and packaged salads,” says Richards. “We can expect to see the biggest percentage jumps in prices for avocados and lettuce – 28% and 34%, respectively.” Richards estimates the following possible price increases due to the drought:

• Avocados likely to go up 17  to 35 cents to as much as $1.60 each.
• Berries likely to rise 21 to 43 cents to as much as $3.46 per clamshell container.
• Broccoli likely to go up 20 to 40 cents to a possible $2.18 per pound.
• Grapes likely to rise 26 to 50 cents to a possible
• 
  $2.93 per pound.
• Lettuce likely to rise 31 to 62 cents to as much as $2.44 per head.
• Packaged salad likely to go up 17 to 34 cents to a possible $3.03 per bag.
• Peppers likely to go up 18 to 35 cents to a possible $2.48 per pound.
• Tomatoes likely to rise 22 to 45 cents to a possible $2.84 per pound.

Industry estimates range from a half-million to 1 million acres of agricultural land likely to be affected by the current California drought. Richards believes 10% to 20% of the supply of certain crops could be lost. California is the biggest national supplier of several of those crops. For avocados, the state is the only major domestic source. […]  

   “We predict the increased prices will change consumer purchasing behavior,” says Sherry Frey, vice president of Nielsen Perishables Group. [more]




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Climate leads to Higher Food Costs. "Period."

 

End of Story.

 

Comments

 

This is when climate change really starts to hit home - when it actually shows up at the dinner table. In the price that is. But what is more concerning is that there is much more to come. - then what?

 

Maybe we should start to think about what we really mean by economics?

 

Dr Peter G Kinesa

April 24,2014

 

Climate Grief - Solomon Islands

Solomon Islands' next challenge to repatriate flood victims: NZ

The main hospital has sent staff to deal with diarrhoea ,dengue flu and malaria outbreaks with damp conditions at the care centres hindering relief efforts.

The evacuation centres are still home to about 9 to 10 thousand people where supplies for the families in the centres limited and bridge access to Honiara is slow.

Presenter: Geraldine Coutts


Speaker: Acting New Zealand High Commissioner to Solomon Islands, Sarah Wong

WONG: I mean in terms of I guess the state of Solomon Islands and where things are I think it's useful to note that this has been an enormous event for Solomon Islands, and in particular, Honiara and Guadalcanal Province. It is a natural disaster that I can't thing of anyone, any Solomon Islander that I've spoken to who have described some natural disaster that's been worse than this and so it has taken people by surprise and people the recovery period is going to be quite awhile, this is many months of recovery for Solomon Islands. And I think that the international community need to be on standby to help, but Solomon Islands obviously need that space to work through some of these very complex issues around repatriating families, working out where people can rebuild, and also just the enormous task of rebuilding the infrastructure and basic services so that Honiara City and Guadalcanal Province can return to normal.


COUTTS: New Zealand is working with UNICEF as are other nations to try and overcome the concern about what's happening in the Care Centres at the moment. They're crowded still,

people aren't able to go home, the schools are in use as kids haven't been able to go back to school and now, on top of that, they're trying to avert another crisis of illness in these Care centres. Can you just give us a status report?

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Drilling More Until Its GONE!

Exxon Mobil says climate change unlikely to stop it selling fossil fuels
 
Oil giant issues report on risks that climate policies could pose to the value of its assets and future profitability

1 April 2014 (Associated Press) – On the same day the world's scientists issued their latest report on climate change and the risks it poses to society, America's biggest oil and gas company said the world's climate policies are "highly unlikely" to stop it from selling fossil fuels far into the future.
 

Exxon Mobil issued a report on Monday on the risks that climate change policies could pose to the value of its assets and future profitability, by coincidence on the same day as the latest paper by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a Nobel Prize-winning United Nations group assembled to assess the science and risks of climate change.
 

Both Exxon and its critics used IPCC research to bolster their cases.
 

Exxon's report was in response to the contentions of some shareholders and environmental activists that the assets underpinning the value of Exxon and other fossil fuel companies will be worth less as society restricts consumption of fossil fuels to fight climate change.
 

The report, the first detailed ...

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When its gone?

 

 

California WATER Reserviors Drying UP

Stunning Before and After Photos of California's Lakes Depleted by Extreme Drought




By Chris Dolce




BEFORE

(Weather Channel) –

 California's reservoirs are severely depleted due to the ongoing widespread drought conditions in the state. As of 21 January 2014, 67 percent of California was in extreme drought [69% on 8 April 2014], the second worst category possible on the U.S. Drought Monitor [now 23% in “Exceptional” drought, the worst category].

According to the California Department of Water Resources, Lake Shasta and Lake Oroville are only 36 percent of capacity. Folsom Lake is just 17 percent capacity.  

AFTER

Starting with Folsom Lake above, we've matched up recent photos of these three depleted lakes from the California Department of Water Resources with images from Google Earth that show the lakes when they were much fuller.



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Here's More

No Bees = NO FOOD - More #Bugonomics

Bee crisis could cost billions in lost agricultural production across Australia, Senate inquiry hears

• POLITICAL EDITOR TORY SHEPHERD

(The Advertiser) – Feral bees have been all but wiped out in South Australia, putting the state’s agricultural industry at risk.

The state now depends on about 60 beekeepers for domestic bees to pollinate crops after the feral population was hit hard by the Bangor and Ngarkat bushfires, among others.

SA apiarist Leigh Duffield, who gave evidence to a Senate inquiry into the future of beekeeping, said bees in those areas were basically burnt out, and their feeding grounds destroyed.

“No bees, no food,” he said.

“About two-thirds of the food produced in Australia is dependent on pollination. For apples, pears, lucerne, almonds, it’s about 90 per cent.

“The whole community, the health of the whole community, is now very dependent on the wellbeing of about 60 commercial apiarists in Australia. We only generate $12 million from honey, but our add-on benefit is about half a billion.”

“As a consequence it is not possible to assess the level of threat posed to the beekeeping industry in Australia, but it would seem reasonable to project that should Varroa establish in Australia and reliance on managed pollination substantially increases, then CCD will become an increasingly important issue.”

Also A Global Problem 

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Miami Herald Prediction: Climate Means Dior Future

Climate change has arrived

OUR OPINION: Dire future if no action is taken

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2014/04/13/4054744/climate-change-has-arrived.html#storylink=cpy

MIAMI HERALD:Editorial

13 April 2014 (Miami Herald) – In case there was still any doubt, and there shouldn't be at this point, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a United Nations group of scientists, has made it official: Climate change is not coming, it’s already here. And it’s going to get worse unless the whole world — especially the industrial world — greatly reduces greenhouse emissions causing global warming.

The U.N. panel periodically weighs in on the state of the Earth’s climate. Its latest report cites melting ice caps, collapsing sea ice in the Arctic, heat waves and heavy deluges that are increasing in intensity and threatening crops, bringing on concerns about sustainable food supplies. Coral reefs are dying. Oceans are rising, while the oceans’ waters are becoming more acidic as they absorb carbon dioxide emitted by vehicles and power plants.

Then there's Florida...

“Climate change impacts are projected to slow down economic growth, make poverty reduction more difficult, further erode food security, and prolong existing and new poverty traps” in urban areas and emerging “hot spots” of hunger, the report says. Some of the people most at risk have little to do with causing global warming. Low-lying countries like Bangladesh and island nations in the Pacific Ocean could be the worst hit over the next few decades. 

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FOOD PRICE SHOCKS - More to Come?

Comments:

The under noted and somewhat quiet indices, are by far the most important global investment metrics to those learned and sharp minds that need a sound reading on the pulse of human activity . They are not given the attention they deserve, but without a doubt they weight ahead of the conventional Dow, CPI, GDP and all the rest, oft over used by retail media. In so many ways, they provide a comprehensive measure of the global state of affairs, in physical and economic terms.

If they are not part of and near the top of your metrics portfolio, you are bound to have considerable trouble with investment returns and economic decisions in the years ahead. If we have to explain why - then, it is strongly suggested that you are better suited for other fields and endeavours. 

Dr Peter G Kinesa
April 16, 2014





FAO Food Price Index rose sharply for a second consecutive month

3 April 2014 (FAO) – The FAO Food Price Index is a measure of the monthly change in international prices of a basket of food commodities. It consists of the average of five commodity group price indices, weighted with the average export shares of each of the groups for 2002-2004.

» The FAO Food Price Index averaged 212.8 points in March 2014, up 4.8 points, or 2.3 percent, from February and the highest level since May 2013. Last month’s increase was largely driven by unfavourable weather conditions affecting some crops and geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea region. Overall, except for the FAO Dairy Price Index, which fell for the first time in four months, all the other commodity price indices registered gains, with sugar and cereals increasing the most.

» The FAO Cereal Price Index averaged 205.8 points in March, up as much as 10 points, or 5.2 percent, from February, marking the second month of significant increases. While in March the Index rose to its highest value since August 2013, it remained well below (34.6 points or 14.4 percent) its value in March 2013. Last month’s strength stemmed from a surge in wheat and maize prices reflecting a strong pace in grain imports, growing concerns over the effect of continued dryness in the south-central United States on winter wheat crops, and unfavourable weather in parts of Brazil. Geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea region, in particular uncertainties with regard to grain shipments from Ukraine, also provided a boost.  Rice prices were generally stable.

» The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index averaged 204.8 points in March, up another 7 points (or 4.5 percent) from February and the highest level in 18 months. The rise in the index mainly reflected a surge in palm oil, on continued concerns over the impact of protracted dry weather in Southeast Asia. Tight inventories in Malaysia and the prospect of rising domestic consumption in Indonesia, the top palm oil producer and exporter, contributed to the strengthening in palm oil values, as did reports about a possible El Niño weather event later this year. International prices for soy, sunflower and rape seed oil also firmed.

» The FAO Dairy Price Index averaged 268.5 points in March, a fall of 6.9 points, or 2.5 percent, over February. Demand for all dairy products has been affected by reduced purchases by China and uncertainty over trade with the Russian Federation.  Additionally, an extended season in New Zealand and a good start to the dairy-year in the northern-hemisphere have meant that supplies for export have increased.  The dairy commodity subject to the sharpest price drop was Whole Milk Powder, reflecting reduced buying interest from China, in particular.

» The FAO Meat Price Index averaged 185 points in March, 2.7 points, or 1.5 percent, above February.  The main driver was higher bovine meat prices, which were associated with dry weather conditions affecting production in both Australia and the United States. Prices for pigmeat also rose, in part on concerns over the effect of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus on export supplies in the United States.  Prices of poultry and ovine meat were only slightly stronger.

» The FAO Sugar Price Index averaged 253.9 points in March, up 18.5 points, or 7.9 percent, from February.  Sugar prices kept strengthening amid concerns of declining export availabilities from Brazil and Thailand, due to drought and reduced sugarcane output, respectively. The likelihood of sugar crops being adversely affected by El Niño later this year also contributed to the price surge.

FAO Food Price Index rose sharply for a second consecutive month