FIRST FINANCIAL INSIGHTS: The New York Times -The Fog of Economics

FIRST FINANCIAL INSIGHTS: The New York Times -The Fog of Economics:


The New York Times ROOM For DEBATE Human Longevity or Unbridled Growth - The Fog of Economics Posted Facebook, The New York T...

Given the preponderance of scientific evidence, mathematics and logic that tells us that the growth thesis takes us down the road to our certain demise, there are still many who are its absolute advocates - Why? We could spend years investigating and analyzing this question and never get much closer to a truth or understanding - it is what it is. Period.

Still we press on, as long as there is the smallest glimmer of hope, and that is what makes all the difference.

Peter G Kinesa
January 24, 2013

It is what it is.

Where Marc Faber Sees Apple (AAPL) Going

Where Marc Faber Sees Apple (AAPL) Going

Apple without Steve Jobs is like the church without the Pope. Rarely, over the course of business history have the Management MBA Types been able to recreate the synergy, spirit and vision of a great business leader. These leaders are the Picasso's, Mozart's, Beatles, Dylan's and Hemingway's of their craft, that no amount of management study or device could ever replace, just like the artistic creative icons mentioned. For above all, Steve too was an artist - and all those who try to replicate his creative artistic drive, face a task not ever repeated in the history of our species. They are simply up against one of the great mysteries of our kind.

And the industry Apple is in requires on-going vision and creative spark. Something that MBA's, just don't have a flair for. In fact if Apple were run by a poet, its prospects would be ten fold improved.

The short of all this is: I wish Apple and its employees, management and stakeholders all the best, yet like Faber it is not an investment I favour going forward for the longer-term. I should also mention that Steve Job's biography is the only one on our list of recommended business books. In so many ways, he was the Dylan of his craft - a rolling stone; but not a complete unknown. Simply, a hero for our times.

Dr Peter G Kinesa

January 17, 2013

Missing You...

SHARKBUSTERS - Mack the Knife

"anybody going on this year's march?"  

 Work Journal: KinesaDate, January 13, 2013

It is 6:22 am Sunday morning. The air lingers cool and crisp yet breathes  into my mind the start of the new day. No work. Peace and serenity . Just a day for those personal dillies and dallies - that relax the soul looking to stir new dreams for the road ahead. My coffee chirps with its own lost dreams  - and where have the Penguins gone?  What else is there to know?

Suddenly, the ringing phone disturbs the symphony of penguins musing  my mind.

I  answer.

Oh dear, it’s the boss.

How could he be calling now? We have been grinding all week? What is so important?

“Peter” he moans in his soft sincere voice. Now I know  this is his set up for a pitch.


"Good Day, Good Day, Chief" jumps from my lips in a stuttered early mornng Polish fashion.


"Last night the media guys finally polished off the Group Video. I think we should go all out and release it on Monday"


"But Chief, this is the first.."


"Listen Peter;" he interupts, "We build into this as a long-term touchstone for everyone. A sort of historical moment."


"Yeah, but Chief... "


So we banter back and forth for another ten or so minutes - it actually seemed much longer. In the end all I can say is we're back - and Macky is definitely back in town. And maybe that's why it is so much fun working here.

But then again there's the Penguins,- and what else is there to know?


All the Best Sharkbusters,



Dr. Peter G Kinesa
January 14, 2013  

SHARKBUSTERS

Mack the Knife

We're Back!

Our media team had at last revitalized our Group's corporate video on the weekend. Once they did, we had everyone on staff scrambling to put something together for release Monday. Like troopers they pulled it together, despite the fact this was supposed to their first weekend off since the holidays. To them, we owe a great debt of gratitude.

Our message is pretty clear; "Bad Guys Beware" cause ole Macky's back in town. And our unconventional maverick approach will expose and pursue with a vengeance those who work against the better interests of the human condition, particularly in areas concerning economics, investments and finance. At the same time, giving you the top world leading insights in these areas. We will take no prisoners!

We had the media guys also dig up the lyrics; we posted them below so you could sing along as you watch. One of those team spirit deals - that brings a tear to the heart.

Anyway, without further blathering. " Oh the shark babe, has such teeth, dear..."

Sharkbusters

January 14, 2013

Mack the Knife

Lyrics - Bobby Darrin's version

Oh, the shark, babe, has such teeth, dear

And it shows them pearly white

Just a jackknife has old MacHeath, babe

And he keeps it, out of sight

Ya know when that shark bites with his teeth, babe

Scarlet billows start to spread

Fancy gloves, THOUGH, wears old MacHeath, babe

So there's never, never a trace of red

Now on the sidewalk, huh, huh, whoo sunny mornin', uh huh

Lies a body just oozin' life, eek

And someone's sneakin'round the corner

Could that someone be Mack the Knife?

There's a tugboat, huh, huh, huh down by the river don'tcha know

WITH a cement bag just droopin' on down

Oh, that cement is just, it's there for the weight, dear

FIVE'll get ya ten old Macky's back in town

Now d'ja hear 'bout Louie Miller? He disappeared, babe

After drawin' out all his hard-earned cash

And now MacHeath spends just like a sailor

Could it be our boy's done somethin' rash? 

Now Jenny Diver, ho, ho, OH, Sukey Tawdry 

Ooh, Miss Lotte Lenya and old Lucy Brown

Oh, the line forms on the right, babe

Now that Macky's back in town

I said Jenny Diver, wow, Sukey Tawdry 

look out Miss Lotte Lenya and old Lucy Brown

Yes, that line forms on the right, babe

We're Back!

The Finance Lounge: Investing in emerging markets

The Finance Lounge: Investing in emerging markets:

Economic globalization has abolished trade and investment barriers, and has integrated global supply chains. In this context, emerging m...

What drugs are theses guys on? Sure in the short term there are  some perceived benefits regarding globalization.  But, the operative word is perceived, and perceptions are not realities. For in reality there are few; if any, benefits from global trade and investing, save for the exchange of ideas that may be localized within a regional economy.

Why few? Briefly all globalization has allowed us to do is essentially move the rest of the world closer to an assimilation of the Western industrial-consumer complex. That is not good by any means. Because it is a complex that accelerates climate chaos, resource exhaustion, bio-sphere destruction, over population and social unrest. Ingredients of extinction.

Thus, globalization acts to ensure the more rapid extinction of the human species from this planet. What idiot really thinks it was a good idea? Who? O'Really?

Dr Peter G Kinesa
January 14, 2013

There are too many villages missing their... well, you know?   

INVESTORS' INSIGHTS .... Marc Faber : The US Dollar is a very very Sick Currency

INVESTORS' INSIGHTS - January 11, 2013

All my friends wonder why I own a rabbit farm and hat factory back at home in Poland.. I tell them that it is the best insurance that money can buy. Have a great weekend and we will see you Monday.

Happy Trails

Dr Pet er G Kinesa
January 11,2013


Marc Faber : The US Dollar is a very very Sick Currency

Marc is still a master of understatements as the greenback is approaching the terminal stage - that's not good for anyone on the planet. It is also highly unlikely that any abstractionist voodoo by the FED can prevent this patient from flat-lining. The big short money is sure to be made on the long US bonds, as investors head for the gates, if rates are not increased relative to real risk. The salad days for the US are coming to an abrupt close.

And remember when interest rates rise it will also impact the cap factor on stocks, regardless of earnings, setting the stage for carnage in equities as well.

Watch the video here. Peter we believe is right this time; the Canadian dollar and assets are good safe harbours under these conditions. Expect all precious metals to spike under a dollar collapse, as it will simply take more dollars to buy all these commodities. And even oil prices should be affected.

Meaning too, that inflation should begin to rear its ugly head sending the economy back into a tailspin.

Specific stocks to watch out for, will be Apple, Goldman Sachs ,AIG and all the Big US banks, when the lid pops off this pressure cooker.

Can anyone pull a rabbit out of the hat? Unlikely, this time

Enjoy your weekend - and  Monday morning coffee!

First Financial Insights
January 11, 2012 
4.00 pm EST

Please, just one more time...

Human Longevity OR Unbridled Growth??

WHAT IS OUR GOAL

 HUMAN LONGEVITY OR UNBRIDLED GROWTH?

Club for Growth President Chris Chocola on C-Spans Washington Journal

Now, here is something you may want to think about given; first, the hard finite constraints of the planet's resources, and second, the mathematical intersection that must ultimately occur between this finite regression and time's infinite linear regression.

What is Humanity's goal? Sustainability? Rapid Extinction? Or Longevity? Personally, I prefer the latter option, as it gives us a little more time to do things; like space travel, accelerate human evolution or perhaps determine the preconditions that define the Laws of Thermodynamics... e.g. Anti-Entropy???. You got to start somewhere.

Now, let's look at the simple math. Lets say we target to degrowth our extraction and consumption activities by seven fold using population as the proxy metric.Taking population levels from 7 billion down to 1 billion, would extend our visitation rights on terra firma by a corresponding seven fold years, in theory. Hmmm. Ponder the unborn gratitude heaped upon us by our future generations for pursuing such wisdom.

Consider also, if we optimistically have only one hundred years left under our current extraction and consumption algebra. Degrowthing,  gives us a shot at at least another seven hundred years, all other things being equal.

So you see in the end, it is not about accelerating growth in both resource "extractions" and populations in order to bring on our species premature extinction; not at all.It is all about that unselfish goal of wisely using the resources of the planet, so that future generations are not subjected to intolerable conditions and have every opportunity to live in a  civilized manner that allows them to pursue the true progresses and nature of our spirit.   

Hopefully, when the growth addicts espouse their mantra next time, you will ask these questions: What is this all about? Extinction through rapid growth?  Elusive sustainability? Or longevity of our species?

Now, what is humanity's goal, if we truly want to reach for the stars? That's your call now...


Dr. Peter G Kinesa  
January 10, 2013

"we are here, thanks to the unselfish wisdom of our ancients"

One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest

One Flew Over the Cuckoo's NestEnergy charts of the day

Read this from the above linked article:

The Bakken development in North Dakota should be an example for the nation, indicating what could be accomplished with the right energy policies to decrease unemployment, raise government revenues, increase per capita income, decrease poverty, and help produce the nation’s major energy source.

So far, the hydraulic fracturing revolution that has created these positive economic developments is largely confined to production on private and state lands, due to governmental policies reducing opportunities on federal lands and a punitive federal regulatory environment. Even though there are massive shale oil and oil shale resources on federal lands, federal policies are choking off any production increases. Here’s one illustrious example: it takes the federal government 307 days to process a permit to drill, but it only takes North Dakota 10 days (see chart below).

And then it leads us to extinction at an increasingly more rapid rate, so we will not have to worry about having the right energy policies ever again. Ever.

Define insanity?

Dr Peter G Kinesa
January 9, 2013 

"Guys,  I call it a Hydraulic  Fracturing Revolution...."

Marc Faber : Great Market bottoms, which offer lifetime buying opportunities, occur quite soon after devastating Market Crashes

Marc Faber : Great Market bottoms, which offer lifetime buying opportunities, occur quite soon after devastating Market Crashes

Dear Friends:

There are number of lessons to be learnt from Marc's comments and analysis:

Old school pundits are simply out of touch with today's physical realities.

They continue to believe in the neo-classical economic thesis; that we now all know is absurd.

You cannot force  templates from 20, 30 or whatever years ago onto today's realities to find meaning.

These pundits are lost in the delusions of abstractions caught between OZ and Wonderland..

Foolishly they believe the past is repeated somehow again and again in the future. It Isn't!

Nor do they realize our planet is dying and there are fewer and fewer resources for more and more people.You would think they can figure out the logical progression. Meaning, soon there may be no economies, no markets, no investments, and no...

So much more could be said. However, should we wake them up from their dreams? 

Dr Peter G  Kinesa
January 8,  2013

Please Do Not Disturb?

FIRST FINANCIAL INSIGHTS: SCARCITY - Humanity's Final Chapter

FIRST FINANCIAL INSIGHTS: SCARCITY - Humanity's Final Chapter:

Article: Diminishing Returns

Here also are comments sent to my colleagues regarding this superb article:


Dearest Colleagues:

The attached article, by Chris Clugston, provides superb graphical and narrative insights and lessons on the implications of diminishing marginal returns from the extraction of NNRs.

Starting with Nauru, then Europe and now Fiscal Cliffs as evidence, no one can refute the direct relationship that exists between diminishing NNR extraction returns and the collapse of economies, and in turn societies. Applied neo-classical economic theory contributed much to those situations, and its shortcomings creep almost daily into the forefront of financial media headlines, but still with much of the same denial and rhetoric.

I also included First Financial Insights comments to Mr. Clugston, to further highlight that the hard constraints we face, are now becoming much more definable; to the point where we can project with certainty how long the planet's NNRs will be practical to extract for our production and consumption purposes. It is also assured, that most societies, economies and political structures will have succumbed to utter chaos and anarchy, well before the complete extraction of all NNRs occurs.

An answer to the last question would provide a reasoned thoughtful view as to when a possible exhaustion of NNRs could occur, but there are too many variables; I believe, to venture a definitive date. The same is true for climate chaos, economic collapse, natural events or nuclear annihilation. All are dark horses in a race to the human-experiment's finish line. All could garner some form of speculation as to which of them will enjoy the dark glory of its winner's circle.

One may handicap a favourite in this final race, but the ambiguity and random nature of events moving forward, to my knowledge, make it impossible to determine a winner. Until then, I guess we should just enjoy the discourse of our speculations, live in peace and fight the fight.

Of Kindest Regards,

Dr Peter G Kinesa

January 6, 2013

A Dark Horse Race to the Finish

FISCAL CLIFF - Part Two

FISCAL CLIFF –  "WITH THE PEOPLE"

FOR NEW JERSEY AND NEW YORK

So long JFK…

=

“When power leads man towards arrogance, poetry reminds him of his limitations…”

"ask not what your country can do for you -- ask what can you do for your country."