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Friday, October 18, 2013

Five Billion People Face Water Scarcity

Threshold level of ΔTg leading to significant local changes in water resources (a) and terrestrial ecosystems (b). (a) Coloured areas: river basins with new water scarcity or aggravation of existing scarcity (cases (1) and (2), see section 2.3.1); greyish areas: basins experiencing lower water availability but remaining above scarcity levels (case (3)); black areas: basins remaining water-scarce but without significant aggravation of scarcity even at ΔTg = 5 °C (case (4)). No population change is assumed here. Basins with an average runoff <10 mm yr−1 per grid cell are masked out. (b) Regions with severe (coloured) or moderate (greyish) ecosystem transformation; delineation refers to the 90 biogeographic regions. All values denote changes found in >50% of the simulations. Graphic: Gerten, et al., 2013

Water Scarcity

Five Billion At Risk

By the end of this century with concurrent trending in population growth it is projected that up to five billion people could be exposed towater scarcity. These figures are according to a recent scientific research letter published in IPOScience  (read more  above).  Here’s the real scary part – that assumes that temperature does not rise 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels. Guess what? We are trending to go higher because restrictive measures are not being implemented.  The number should be bigger!

The report referenced provides ample numerical, mathematical and modeling analysis if you have a geeky urge.  What cannot be emphasized enough is that we are not just talking about ducks and daisies here – we are talking about the essence of human life. Climate change is not a bad dream to be swept under the media carpet, and ignoring it may not affect our lives, but the misery we are leaving our children, grand children and so on, has never been imagined by any word constructions of any dictionary on the planet.

Now, I leave you with no further words - just that thought…  

Dr Peter G Kinesa
October 17,2013
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