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Friday, May 31, 2013

Marc Faber Blog - Investors should learn to be patient

Marc Faber Blog: Investors should learn to be patient

For sure this comment needs context as Marc certainly knows that no single attribute makes a great investor. Bear in mind too, that we would classify Marc and Jimmy as traders - not investors with a kindred Warren Buffet spirit. It is a mix of skills, knowledge, character, experience and good old fashion street smarts that great investors possess.,

That's why we strongly recommend that serious investors have access to at least three types of financial advisor. Namely, building a team consisting of conventional, contrarian and maverick advisors provides a sound diversity of related skills, knowledge, experience and process. But never, ever, ever, ever place full reliance on just one advisor or related group, no matter how smart or conservative they appear; that's investor suicide, because sooner or later everyone is wrong and that could be completely devastating. 

To expand on this topic, investing requires the application of what we term "thought models" and what better person to defer to in this regard other than Charlie Munger, Warren's personal guru behind the salesman. Here's a website you may go to, that has been modeled to some degree around Charlie, that should give you some of the multiple thought processes and conceptual tools these guys keep at their disposal. 

Be patient, learn, listen and apply. But most importantly, surround yourself with investors/thinkers that are much better than you. And remember the two most paramount investing rules. First, never lose any money. And secondly, never forget the first one.

Enjoy the site and drop us line with any thoughts.





Dr Peter G Kinesa
May 31, 2013

PS. We no have affiliation economic or otherwise with this site and refer to  it for purposes of illustration and insight. Think Mental Models 


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Thursday, May 30, 2013

Jim Rogers Blog - Crude Oil Outlook : known-reserves of oil continue to decline

Jim Rogers Blog - Crude Oil Outlook : known-reserves of oil continue to decline



There is one thing that can be guaranteed other than death and taxes. One day we will run out of oil that makes any sense to extract based on energy economics. Meaning that the energy needed to extract the oil far exceeds the energy value output provided by the oil. When will this occur? Based on BP's World Energy Reports probably within the next 50 years, give or take a decade. Moreover, it assumes that we do not hit the fat tail of the exponential curve sooner, thereby dramatically accelerating consumption.

But it should be emphasised that exhaustion is not the real near term concern. Rather it is "peak oil" when world consumption needs exceed the extraction outputs; and begin the decline towards exhaustion. Some experts already believe that we are at this point, while others say that it is still years ahead of us. Most, however agree that it is something that is definitely in the cards at some point, regardless.

With it comes, wars, social unrest and a breakdown in the economic and financial structures. Trade agreements and institutions such as The WTO, OEDC, IMF and the World Bank are slated for extinction as countries back into an "every man for himself" operanda. It will be a mess.



Dr Peter G Kinesa
May 30, 2013 



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