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Saturday, March 22, 2014

Financial Energy Limits Hit Sooner - The End of Fossil Energy Blog

Are You Sure?

and Randers'

 2052 Energy 

Forecasts are 


By Gail Tverberg

Figure 7. Higher energy cost leads to unfavorable feedback loop. (Illustration by author.)What is the correct way to model the future course of energy and the economy? There are clearly huge amounts of oil, coal, and natural gas in the ground.  With different approaches, researchers can obtain vastly different indications. I will show that the real issue is most researchers are modeling the wrong limit.

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There is one economic observation that is profound and pervasive to all global physical-economic theory, metrics and activity. That is the strong positive correlation that energy use; particularly oil, has with the exponential growth in GDP, stock markets, food production, population and a host of other outcomes, over the past 150 years. That is why it is extremely important to know and understand that when this trend turns southwards its implications will have extra-ordinary effects on the nature, extent and quality of all human activity. Nothing is more important than this in so many respects.

Dr Peter G Kinesa

March 22, 2014

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