Jim Rogers Blog - Crude Oil Outlook : known-reserves of oil continue to decline
There is one thing that can be guaranteed other than death and taxes. One day we will run out of oil that makes any sense to extract based on energy economics. Meaning that the energy needed to extract the oil far exceeds the energy value output provided by the oil. When will this occur? Based on BP's World Energy Reports probably within the next 50 years, give or take a decade. Moreover, it assumes that we do not hit the fat tail of the exponential curve sooner, thereby dramatically accelerating consumption.
But it should be emphasised that exhaustion is not the real near term concern. Rather it is "peak oil" when world consumption needs exceed the extraction outputs; and begin the decline towards exhaustion. Some experts already believe that we are at this point, while others say that it is still years ahead of us. Most, however agree that it is something that is definitely in the cards at some point, regardless.
With it comes, wars, social unrest and a breakdown in the economic and financial structures. Trade agreements and institutions such as The WTO, OEDC, IMF and the World Bank are slated for extinction as countries back into an "every man for himself" operanda. It will be a mess.
Dr Peter G Kinesa
May 30, 2013
HEADLINE NEWS:
There is one thing that can be guaranteed other than death and taxes. One day we will run out of oil that makes any sense to extract based on energy economics. Meaning that the energy needed to extract the oil far exceeds the energy value output provided by the oil. When will this occur? Based on BP's World Energy Reports probably within the next 50 years, give or take a decade. Moreover, it assumes that we do not hit the fat tail of the exponential curve sooner, thereby dramatically accelerating consumption.
But it should be emphasised that exhaustion is not the real near term concern. Rather it is "peak oil" when world consumption needs exceed the extraction outputs; and begin the decline towards exhaustion. Some experts already believe that we are at this point, while others say that it is still years ahead of us. Most, however agree that it is something that is definitely in the cards at some point, regardless.
With it comes, wars, social unrest and a breakdown in the economic and financial structures. Trade agreements and institutions such as The WTO, OEDC, IMF and the World Bank are slated for extinction as countries back into an "every man for himself" operanda. It will be a mess.
Dr Peter G Kinesa
May 30, 2013
