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Thursday, December 6, 2012

Calculated Risk: FDIC reports Fewer Problem banks, Total REO Declines in Q3


Frankie: So Bring in the Clowns...

Whatever you think, treat these number with the utmost care, and then toss them in the trash.Three quick reasons:

Questionable accuracy of accounting; as we have seen, many regulators and auditors are hired guns with severe limitations. Value adjustments lag the reality often by 18 to 24 months.

Limited predictive value as these are manipulated abstracts "premised on neo-classical economics". If the system worked, then the 2008 meltdown would not have occurred - it did. So what more do we need to say?

Interest rates must revert to historic means, invariably reflecting actual inflation. Hypothetically, mathematically adjusting these reported values using historic- normative interest rates would wipe out 30% of asset values; putting 90% of the system underwater. A mean reversion is 100% inevitable - the doo doo will hit the fan - and be Much Bigger than 2008.



That's the short story. So where are the clowns?

First Financial Insights
December 6, 2012


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