ALERT: #OPEC #Oil Production Continues Nosedive

"Hard to say whether Saudi Arabia is following Venezuela's huge production drop as both had notoriously overstated their reserves. The Saudi's conventional fields are very long in the tooth.  Lets not forget MIT's - "Limits to Growth" - research book that predicted a major drop in resources around 2020, and so far their predictions have been fairly accurate, as evidenced by the graph below and the follow-up report 30 years later. It appears we are closing in on a new era - as cheap conventional oil runs dry. What's next is anybody's guess. "

Dr P G Kinesa

October 20, 2019

OPEC September 2019 Oil Production

By Ron Patterson

Data for the OPEC charts below were taken from the October OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report

OPEC 14 crude oil production was down1,318,000 barrels per day in September. Most of that decline was due to the Iranian attack on the Saudi oil complex at Abqaiq. ( The question is whether this attack may have been staged to distract attention from the bigger production decline issue and overstated reserves?)

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LIMITS TO GROWTH

KEY CONCLUSIONS

After reviewing their computer simulations, the research team came to the following conclusions:^[1]:23–24

1. Given business as usual, i.e., no changes to historical growth trends, the limits to growth on earth would become evident by 2072, leading to "sudden and uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity". This includes the following:
   • Global Industrial output per capita reaches a peak around 2008, followed by a rapid decline
   • Global Food per capita reaches a peak around 2020, followed by a rapid decline
   • Global Services per capita reaches a peak around 2020, followed by a rapid decline
   • Global population reaches a peak in 2030, followed by a rapid decline
2. Growth trends existing in 1972 could be altered so that sustainable ecological and economic stability could be achieved.
3. The sooner the world's people start striving for the second outcome above, the better the chance of achieving it.

SYNOPSIS 30 YEAR UPDATE

The signs are everywhere around us:

• Sea level has risen 10–20 cm since 1900. Most non-polar glaciers are retreating, and the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice is decreasing in summer.
• In 1998 more than 45 percent of the globe’s people had to live on incomes averaging $2 a day or less. Meanwhile, the richest one- fifth of the world’s population has 85 percent of the global GNP. And the gap between rich and poor is widening.
• In 2002, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN estimated that 75 percent of the world’s oceanic fisheries were fished at or beyond capacity. The North Atlantic cod fishery, fished sustainably for hundreds of years, has collapsed, and the species may have been pushed to biological extinction.
• The first global assessment of soil loss, based on studies of hundreds of experts, found that 38 percent, or nearly 1.4 billion acres, of currently used agricultural land has been degraded.
• Fifty-four nations experienced declines in per capita GDP for more than a decade during the period 1990–2001.

These are symptoms of a world in overshoot, where we are drawing on the world’s resources faster than they can be restored, and we are releasing wastes and pollutants faster than the Earth can absorb them or render them harmless. They are leading us toward global environmental and economic collapse—but there may still be time to address these problems and soften their impact.

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 FINAL WARNING LIMITS TO GROWTH

#Extinction:Three Billion North American #Birds Vanished Since 1970

“It's an empty feeling in your stomach that these same birds that you grew up with just aren't there anymore.”

U.S., Canada have lost 3 billion birds since 1970. Scientists say 'nature is unraveling.'

By Jeremy Deaton

Pete Marra remembers birdwatching in the woods behind his childhood home in Norwalk, Connecticut, in the 1970s, gazing up at common nighthawks as they extended their long, pointed wings and soared through the air. “They were these aerial acrobats,” he said. “They did ballet.”

By the time he got to high school, the woods had been cut down to make room for houses, and the nighthawks had begun to disappear. Today the bird has all but vanished from his old neighborhood.

“They're rare in Connecticut now. They're rare in many places,” said Marra, now an ecologist who is the director of the Georgetown Environment Initiative. “It's an empty feeling in your stomach that these same birds that you grew up with just aren't there anymore.”

Pete Marra is an ecologist and the director of Georgetown University’s environment initiative in Washington, D.C.

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THIRD OF NORTH AMERICAN BIRDS FACE EXTINCTION

https://youtu.be/yEpCwSn-Nis

#CliamteCrisis: We Failed To Act On #Climate For FIFTY Years

"Until our leaders implement major policy changes to mitigate the climate crisis, Greta’s generation will be wholly justified in lecturing them for selfishly frittering away the stability of our global climate."

This story is part of Covering Climate Now, a global collaboration of more than 300 news outlets to strengthen coverage of the climate story.

Greta Thunberg is a painful reminder of decades of climate failures

By Dana Nuccitelli, 

Sixteen-year-old Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg has ignited the climate movement, most recently taking a zero-carbon ocean voyage to America to attend the September 23rd UN climate summit in New York City. She’s become so effective and inspiring that those who want to maintain the status quo—predominantly wealthy and powerful old white men—have begun to attack her. Greta has been called “the international mascot for climate alarmism … mentally unstable,” “a millenarian cult leader,” a “deeply disturbed messiah of the global warming movement,” a “teenage puppet,” a “petulant child,” and much more.

Greta articulated her views in a TEDx talk in which she accurately described the state of climate science and the fact that if we are to meet the Paris climate targets, developed countries in particular must rapidly reduce their carbon pollution. As Greta notes, the world has thus far failed to act, in part because most people don’t realize that rapid change is required.

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YOU ARE STEALING OUR FUTURE

#World #Leaders Shaken As #Climate March Hits FOUR Million

"Organisers said record numbers marched in countries around the world, sending a clear message to politicians meeting in New York"

Hundreds of thousands of young people took to the streets in New York demanding governments do more to tackle the climate crisis (Photo: Chloé Farand)

‘Four million’ join students in climate marches, building pressure on leaders

By Chloé Farand and Jill Russo

More than four million people have taken part in an unprecedented wave of climate protests across the world, organisers said, in the most powerful message to governments yet to take serious action.

The global strike was billed as the largest climate protest in history days before  world leaders gather in New York for a three-day climate action summit convened by UN secretary general António Guterres starting Saturday.

Hundreds of thousands of people, mostly young people, some accompanied by parents, gathered in Foley Square in front of the Thurgood Marshall courthouse in downtown Manhattan in September heat, waving colourful hand-painted placards.

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GRETA LEADS NYC MARCH

#Week4Future: Global #Climate #Strike Week - @postcarbon

At this unprecedented pivital juncture in human history Dr Peter G Kinesa's Digest is pleased to annouce its support and endorsement of the beliefs, policies and actions of:

Post Carbon Institute

Our Strategy

Post Carbon Institute provides individuals and communities with the resources needed to understand and respond to the interrelated ecological, economic, energy, and equity crises of the 21st century. We help build resilience to withstand these crises, and support social and cultural change to make society more ready to take decisive and appropriate action. Specifically, we:

• Grow collective understanding of our energy reality, and the need for both conservation and appropriate, community-centric renewable energy.
• Promote community resilience as the best way to build thriving, relocalized neighborhoods, towns, and cities capable of withstanding coming disruptions.
• Support a growing movement of innovators and early adopters who can develop best practices and provide leadership both now and during future crises.

"But even if hope has to be held lightly in the steely-eyed recognition of what we face, we still must take action. Much of that action comes back to our own backyards."

A sea change moment?

Asher Miller

September 19, 2019

Tomorrow begins Global Climate Strike Week, led by young people to demand urgent action to address the climate emergency. What many hope will be a sea change moment in the struggle to mobilize a real response to this existential threat had a humble start a year ago when a young Swedish student, Greta Thunberg, began spending her Fridays protesting in front of the Swedish Parliament. Inspired by Greta’s example—and her blunt, uncompromising stance—millions of students have since joined her in the “Fridays for the Future” movement. This week is an opportunity for the rest of us to participate.

I will be out on the streets tomorrow and the following Friday in my hometown, and I’ll be joining a number of other activities planned locally over the coming week. PCI is supporting our staff to actively participate in the various communities where they live. We’d like to encourage you to do the same. Visit the Climate Strike website to find activities near you.

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The Most Important Speech Ever

#Renewables (sic) May Have Adverse #Economic Consequences

"Intermittent electricity, because of its tendency to drive other providers to bankruptcy, will tend to make the grid fail more quickly than it would otherwise. The big danger ahead seems to be bankruptcy of electricity providers and of fossil fuel producers, rather than running out of a fuel such as oil or natural gas."

Rethinking Renewable Mandates

By Gail Tverberg

Powering the world’s economy with wind, water and solar, and perhaps a little wood sounds like a good idea until a person looks at the details. The economy can use small amounts of wind, water and solar, but adding these types of energy in large quantities is not necessarily beneficial to the system.

While a change to renewables may, in theory, help save world ecosystems, it will also tend to make the electric grid increasingly unstable. To prevent grid failure, electrical systems will need to pay substantial subsidies to fossil fuel and nuclear electricity providers that can offer backup generation when intermittent generation is not available. Modelers have tended to overlook these difficulties. As a result, the models they provide offer an unrealistically favorable view of the benefit (energy payback) of wind and solar.

If the approach of mandating wind, water, and solar were carried far enough, it might have the unfortunate effect of saving the world’s ecosystem by wiping out most of the people living within the ecosystem. It is almost certain that this was not the intended impact when legislators initially passed the mandates.

1] History suggests that in the past, wind and water never provided a very large percentage of total energy supply

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DECARBONATION OF OIL AND GAS

#CLIMATECRISIS:IMPORTANT #WEBINAR #INVITATION FROM THE POST CARBON INSTITUTE

Hello Everyone, I work on issues surrounding the climate crisis nearly every day, but I still struggle to talk about the magnitude of the situation with my family and friends. Finding the right approach to these conversations—so we can keep talking even when we disagree or leave the conversation feeling empowered rather than disheartened—can be truly challenging. Which is why I'm so excited about our live webinar with Karin Kirk and Susanne Moser, We Need to Talk: How to have difficult conversations about the climate crisis. Karin Kirk has taught courses about climate change, overseen energy conservation projects, worked on national-scale climate education efforts, and measured the effectiveness of NOAA's Climate.gov website. While a scientist by training, Karin is particularly intrigued by the intersection of science and the human dimension. Susanne Moser is a geographer who works nationally and internationally as an independent scholar and consultant from a base in western Massachusetts. Her work with government agencies, non-profits, foundations, and other researchers and consultants focuses on adaptation to climate change, resilience, transformation, science-policy interactions, and effective climate change communication. During the webinar we'll talk about: Overcoming personal reluctance to have conversations about the climate crisis Strategies for connecting with people who disagree with us How to approach this difficult topic so that you inspire others to take action I hope you'll join us. Our panelists have a wealth of experience and wisdom to offer so we really think you'll enjoy this great conversation whether you talk to people about the climate crisis for a living or out of personal passion. WHAT: Live Webinar - We Need To Talk DATE: Thursday, October 10, 2019 TIME: 11:00 AM PDT / 2:00 PM EDT / 6:00 PM GMT GET YOUR TICKETS TODAY We are so lucky to have such an engaged and inspiring community. Your participation in these events makes them richer and far more meaningful. If you think your family and friends might also find this webinar interesting, please spread the word and share this email with them. In gratitude, Amy Buringrud Marketing & Communications Director Copyright © 2019 Post Carbon Institute, All rights reserved. Our mailing address is: Post Carbon Institute 800 SW Washington Avenue, Suite 5 Corvallis, Oregon 97333 Add us to your address book