ENERGY 2050 BANKRUPTCY - Castes Dark Cloud on Future (Part 2)

Energy 2050 Bankruptcy 

World Energy to 2050
FortyYearsof Decline
  
Introduction
Part 2

By Paul Cherfurka

http://www.paulchefurka.ca/

Preface

This article supercedes an earlier work, "World Energy and Population: Trends to 2100".  Compared to that paper this article offers a more comprehensive look at the world's evolving energy supply picture and confines its projections to the first half of the century.  Also unlike that earlier work, this article makes no assumptions about changes in human population due directly to reductions in the world's energy supply.  At the end of the article I will briefly examine one highly probable effect the decline in total energy would have on the quality of human life.

The analysis is intended to clarify a future energy supply scenario based purely on the situation as it now exists and the directions it shows obvious signs of taking.  The model is not intended to show the effects of any of the large-scale changes in direction that have been proposed to cope with declining oil and gas supplies or rising CO2 levels.  Solar or nuclear power "Manhattan Project" style efforts, for example, are not considered.  Treat this scenario as a cautionary tale: given the known resource constraints in energy, this is the likely outcome if we don't take collective action but rather just continue business as usual.

This article will not present any prescriptive measures for either supply or demand management.   You will not find any specific suggestions for what we ought to do, or any proposals based on the assumption that we can radically alter the behaviour of people or institutions over the short term. While the probability of such changes will increase if the global situation shifts dramatically, such considerations would introduce a level of uncertainty into the analysis that would make it conceptually intractable. The same constraint holds true for new technologies. You will not find any discussion of fusion or hydrogen power, for example.

Introduction

Throughout history, the expansion of human civilization has been supported by a steady growth in our use of high-quality exosomatic energy. This growth has been driven by our increasing population and our increasing level of activity.  As we learned to harness the energy sources around us we progressed from horse-drawn plows, hand forges and wood fires to our present level of mechanization with its wide variety of high-density energy sources.  As industrialization has progressed around the world, the amount of energy each one of us uses has also increased, with the global average per capita consumption of all forms of energy rising by 50% in the last 40 years alone.

This rosy vision of continuous growth has recently been challenged by the theory of "Peak Oil", which concludes that the amount of oil and natural gas being extracted from the earth will shortly start an irreversible decline.  As that decline progresses we will have to depend increasingly on other energy sources to power our civilization.  In this article I will offer a glimpse into that changed energy future.  I hope to be able to provide a realistic assessment of the evolution of the global energy supply picture, and to estimate how much of the various types of energy we will have available to us  in the coming decades.

  Methodology 

The analysis in this article is supported by a model of trends in energy production. The model is based on historical data of actual energy production, connected to projections drawn from the thinking of various expert energy analysts as well as my own interpretation of future directions and some purely mathematical projections.

The current global energy mix consists of oil (36%), natural gas (24%), coal (28%), nuclear (6%), hydro (6%) and renewable energy such as biomass, wind and solar (about 2%). Historical production in each category (except for renewable energy) has been taken from the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007. In order to permit comparison between categories I use a standard measure called the tonne of oil equivalent (toe). Using this measure, well-known conversion factors for thermal and electrical energy production permit the different energy sources to be easily compared.

We will first examine the energy sources separately, applying the development parameters that seem most appropriate to each. For each source I will define as clearly as possible the factors I have considered in building its scenario. This transparency will allow you to decide for yourself whether my assumptions seem plausible. We will then combine the individual energy analyses into a single global energy projection.

 Notes 

The model was developed as a simple Excel spreadsheet. The timing of some significant energy-related events and rates of increase or decrease of supply were chosen through careful study of the available literature. In some cases different authors had diverging opinions on these matters. To resolve those situations I have relied on my own analysis and judgment. As a result the model has remained open to the influence of my personal biases. I make no apology for this potential subjectivity; such scenarios always reflect the opinions of their authors, and it is best to be clear about that from the start. Nevertheless, I have made deliberate efforts throughout to be objective in my choices, to base my projections on observed trends in the present and recent past, and to refrain from wishful thinking at all times.

The Excel spreadsheet containing the data used in this model is available here.

Next

Part 3: Other Energy Sources  

10 MILLION Soon Risk Hunger With Climate Debacle

10 Million At Risk of Hunger Due To Climate Change And El Niño, Oxfam Warns

UNITED NATIONS, Oct 2 2015 (IPS) - At least ten million of the poorest people face food insecurity in 2015 and 2016 due to extreme weather conditions and the onset of El Niño, Oxfam has reported.

In Oxfam’s new report called Entering Uncharted Waters, erratic weather patterns were noted including high temperatures and droughts, disrupting farming seasons around the world.

Countries are already facing a “major emergency,” said Oxfam, including Ethiopia where 4.5 million people are in need of food assistance due to a drought this year.

China’s 3,000-Acre Aircraft Carriers Could Change the Balane of Power in the Pacific

Thus far — and construction continues — China has created nearly 3,000 acres of land out of the ocean. Just consider that the highly touted and massive US aircraft carriers (from which can launch a wing of more than 70 jets and helicopters) are only 5 acres of flattop. Are these artificial islands similar to hundreds of unsinkable aircraft carriers in the South China Sea? That shifts the balance between the two competing militaries.

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In South China Sea, a Tougher US Stance

Rejecting China’s "Great Wall of Sand," the US Navy concludes that failing to sail and fly close to the outposts would signal that Washington tacitly accepts Beijing’s far-reaching territorial claims. 

Israeli gunfire injures roughly 500 Palestinians during West Bank clashes

Violent clashes have erupted between Palestinian youths and Israeli troops in the West Bank and East Jerusalem.

Palestine: A Land in Fragments

 

More than 200 Israeli farms occupy the West Bank, plus military zones and highways. The West Bank is no longer a viable or contiguous state. The Palestinians are being squeezed out like pips.  

Groups Issue Warning: Pro-Corporate TPP Could Kill the Internet

Global Internet censorship will criminalise online activities, censor the Web, and Internet Service Providers would be required to 'police' YOU, take down Internet content, and cut you off from Internet access.

A Passing Thought...

Here We Go Again....

Terrible Refugee Crisis Expected With Climate Chaos

Fiji PM Warns Of Syria-Style Refugee Crisis If Rich Nations Don’t Do More On Climate

The Prime Minister of Fiji, Frank Bainimarama has hit out at developing nations for their “unacceptable” progress in reducing carbon emissions as part of a speech to the United Nations General Assembly, in which he warned of a humanitarian refugee crisis on the scale of the current migration out of Syria if more is not done.

The talks come as Foreign Minister Julie Bishop seeks a place for Australia on the UN Security and Human Rights Councils, but Bainimarama warned that developed nations like Australia are not listening to the voice of Pacific Island nations, whose human rights are threatened by rising seas and hostile weather patterns.

“It is simply not acceptable for advanced economies to build a high standard of living on the degradation of the earth and the seas,” Bainimarama said.

Syrian Battle Lines Create Tough Questions In Geopolitics

Whatever news is coming from the region bears uncertainty and increased tension with far-reaching implications in geopolitics. Many of the major geopolitical-players in the region are finding it difficult to estimate the total account.

US, Allies Blast Russia For Attacking Al Qaeda In Syria

Obama says Russia “doesn’t distinguish between ISIL and a moderate Sunni opposition that wants to see Mr. Assad go... From their perspective, they’re all terrorists."

Is Russia Repeating Cold War Mistakes in Syria?

US reluctance to be more assertive in Syria: A strategic necessity born out of war weariness and a lack of attractive options or an overall strategic retreat from the region.

Putin Risks Enraging ‘the Entire Sunni World’

Russia’s stepped up efforts in the country have infuriated the Sunni Arab governments of the region, which have long called for Assad to step down and pressured the US to bolster support for Syria’s rebels. 

Iran claims Russia has started delivery of S-300 missile defence system

The S-300 is capable of tracking multiple planes at once and some versions have an interception range of 200 kilometers. It is considered to be one of the most sophisticated anti-aircraft weapons in the world.

Russian ‘volunteer’ forces headed for Syria

more than 600 Russian military personnel were already on the ground in Syria, not counting aircrews, and that tents for nearly 2,000 people had been seen at Russia’s air base near Latakia.

Sanders Condemns 'Disastrous' TPP as Ministers Seal Deal for Corporate Elite

Amid a last minute scramble, leaders from the United States and 11 other Pacific Rim countries announced Monday that they had reached agreement on a sweeping trade deal, one that critics, including US presidential candidate Bernie Sanders, say will slash standards and protections for both consumers and workers—with impacts to be felt across the globe.

The agreement, known as the Trans Pacific Partnership (or TPP), which would tie together as much as 40 percent of the world's economy, has for nearly 8 years been negotiated in secret. Though details of the compromise were not yet revealed early Monday, critics said that—minutia aside—the global trade pact will certainly be a boon for corporate power

"TPP is a deal for big business," said Nick Dearden, director of the UK-based Nick Dearden,Global Justice Now.

A  Passing Thought...