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#ClimateCrisis: #Antarctic Sea Ice Melting #Exponentially

"Plunge is far faster than in Arctic and may lead to more global heating, say scientists" 'Precipitous' fall i...

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Friday, August 30, 2019

#Amazon Fires May Be Close To #Tipping-Point

A 2007 modeling study found that the loss of around 40% of the forest would reduce rainfall and extend the dry season in major parts of the Amazonia region, converting much of the eastern part into grassy plains where few trees can thrive.

Photo of the Amazon rainforest wildfire


We aren’t terrified enough about losing the Amazon

The idea is that a certain level of deforestation will push the world’s largest rainforest to a tipping point, where spiraling feedback effects convert much of the forest into savannah. The massive greenhouse gas sponge, which holds around 17% of the world’s carbon trapped in vegetation on land, would suddenly become a major source of it.
That would be a monumental catastrophe. But how real of a danger is it?
Well, scientists can’t exactly say. Some models show the phenomenonsome don’t. Where some researchers detect a tipping point in the data—which technically means it would continue on its own even if the forces that first drove it fade away—others see merely progressive deterioration that could be halted. Still other studies have found such a phenomenon would most likely convert rainforest into seasonal forest, rather than savannah.
So what should we do in the face of this kind of scientific uncertainty? Like other climate tipping points, which are unpredictable and essentially irreversible once reached, we should err on the side of caution. 
“Even if it’s a remote possibility, we cannot afford to ignore it,” says Jonathan Foley, executive director of Project Drawdown, a research group focused on decarbonization. “It would be absolutely catastrophic to the Earth’s carbon cycle, water cycle, climate, and biodiversity—not to mention the people who live there.” 
Image result for amazon fires 2019


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Possible Future



Monday, August 26, 2019

#Global #Food Supply - How Long Will It Last?


A new report from the United Nations paints a bleak picture of the future of food.

Image result for global food supply


The Global Food Supply is Delicate. Climate Change Is Making Things Worse.


  • By itself, humanity is pushing the bounds of how much food can consumed.
  • Climate change will significantly alter every aspect of food, from apples to steak.
  • If humans can halt deforestation and alter food patterns, things could be way better, says the new UN report.
new report on climate change and land use from the United Nations shows over-exploitation of land resources at a rate "unprecedented in human history." If there are no changes in humanity's attitudes toward land resources or climate change, the study says, there will be a dire threat to humanity's global food supply system.
The societal and environmental problems facing the world's food supply are vast and multi-faceted, according to the report's first chapter. They include the "conversion of natural ecosystems into managed land, rapid urbanization, pollution from the intensification of land management and equitable access to land resources," as well as "technological development, population growth and increasing per capita demand for multiple ecosystem services."
As a 2018 study showed, 100 years ago, humans used just 15 percent of the world's surface to grow crops and raise livestock. Excluding the frozen wastes of Antarctica, that number is now 77 percent.
Aerial view of cows suffering from the drought grouped in fences to be fed by the governement, Oromia, Yabelo, Ethiopia



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FOOD CRISIS IN TEN YEARS


Friday, August 23, 2019

What's The #Worst Case End-Game For The #ClimateCrisis?


In climate science there has been a tension between the drive towards consensus to support policy making versus exploratory speculation and research that pushes forward the knowledge frontier 


Image result for permian extinction event




Climate Change: What’s the Worst Case?


By Judith Curry


My new manuscript is now available.
A link to my new paper ‘Climate Change: What’s the Worst Case?’ is provided here [worst case paper final (1)]
A few words on the intended audience and motivation for writing this:
First and foremost, this is written for the clients of Climate Forecast Applications Network who are interested in scenarios of future climate change [link]
Second, this paper is written as a contribution to my series of academic papers on the topic of uncertainty in climate science:
Third, the paper is written to inform the public debate on climate change and policy makers.  I am ever hopeful that some sanity can be interjected into all this.
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THE PERMIAN EXTINCTION




Thursday, August 22, 2019

US Democratic Party #DNC Takes Low Road On #ClimateCrisis


Members cited concerns over changing party rules and opening the door for a flood of single-issue events

Image result for confused democratic party cartoon

The Democratic National Committee has rejected mounting calls for a party-sponsored debate on the climate crisis, voting down a resolution that would have dedicated one of the 12 Democratic debates entirely to the issue.

Calls for a DNC-sanctioned climate debate have been building for months. In poll after poll, climate has been one of the most important issues to likely Democratic voters in the 2020 presidential election. But little time has been devoted to the topic in debates to date: a scant 15 minutes in the first set of debates, and just over 20 in the most recent two.
Party delegates are meeting this week in San Francisco to hear from 2020 candidates, hold fundraising events and tend to party business. But one of the gathering’s most urgent agenda items was to vote on competing resolutions to determine whether or not such an event would go ahead.

 A committee rejected the resolution in a 17-to-8 vote. Photograph: Guy Bell/REX/Shutterstock


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IMAGINE DNC ARE NOW DENIERS?


Monday, August 19, 2019

If you #think everything's OK, you're #nuts


It’s entirely possible that ecosystem collapse will render whole new swaths of the globe uninhabitable to humans.






Overdosing On Crazy Pills

Sometimes an otherwise-forgettable movie will be lifted up out of obscurity by the internet and made into a useful meme.
In the movie Zoolander Will Ferrell’s character, ‘Jacobim Mugatu,’ screams the line “I feel like I’m taking crazy pills!” because it seems nobody else sees what he does.
I have that feeling nearly every day now. And it’s getting more frequent and intense.
To the point where, some days, it feels like I’m in danger of overdosing on crazy pills.

Crazy Pill #1

Financial bubbles happen. History is full of them.  It’s just that they’re just not supposed to happen more than once a generation.
How can so many people have completely forgotten the painful lessons of not one, but two, recent bubbles?
The bursting of the DotCom bubble in 2000 was traumatic.  “Eyeballs” were favored for a time over “earnings.” But then investors woke up to the fact that all of their rationalizations for the sky-high valuations of profitless companies were actually ridiculous.
Okay, fine.  Lesson learned.  Earnings are actually important.
But here we go, again, less than 20 years after the DotCom bubble (and only 10 years post-subprime bubble — both far less than a full generation later to allow the keepers of the memories a chance to die off) with exactly the same dynamic at play:
% of IPOS with negative earnings


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MORGAN STANLEY IS CONCERNED

Friday, August 2, 2019

#ClimateCrisis: Global Warming - #Scientific Consensus, It's A Fact


"Extensive historical data shows recent extreme warming is unprecedented in past 2,000 years"

Image result for global warming charts 2019



'No doubt left' about scientific consensus on global warming, say experts

The scientific consensus that humans are causing global warming is likely to have passed 99%, according to the lead author of the most authoritative study on the subject, and could rise further after separate research that clears up some of the remaining doubts.
Three studies published in Nature and Nature Geoscience use extensive historical data to show there has never been a period in the last 2,000 years when temperature changes have been as fast and extensive as in recent decades.
A remote, desert road in Death Valley national park, California.
It had previously been thought that similarly dramatic peaks and troughs might have occurred in the past, including in periods dubbed the Little Ice Age and the Medieval Climate Anomaly. But the three studies use reconstructions based on 700 proxy records of temperature change, such as trees, ice and sediment, from all continents that indicate none of these shifts took place in more than half the globe at any one time.


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LAST TIME PLANET GOT WARM





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