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Thursday, February 28, 2019

2019 Titanic #Global #Economy Hits Beginning of the End



2019: The Beginning Of The End (Free Premium Report)


What will happen next & what to do now

For ten long years, the world’s central banks have dragged everyone along for one last attempt at scaling Mount Credit.
At several points along the way, in 2011, in 2013 and then again in 2016 it seemed all but certain that the wrong route had been picked and all was lost.  We warned people then about the risks, but to no avail. They found a way to navigate even higher from there.
And here we are again in 2018, warning everyone of the same risks. Starting back in August of 2018 we were questioning whether “it” had arrived and then were declaring that it had throughout October and November.
“Until and unless” the central banks reverse course 2019 will see even more of the same.  More stock market volatility, more bond losses, and falling real estate.  Eventually these credit stresses will impact those portions of the economy dependent on continued access to more dumb money. 
Weak companies that cannot sustain themselves without borrowing more will go out of business and lay people off.  Major corporations seeing that writing on the wall will reel in their own hiring and expansion plans.


Eventually all the of the highly leveraged trading strategies have to pack up shop and go home and that’s when we discover that these “markets” are as fake as a spray on sun tan.  No actual liquidity, only the appearance of such as temporarily afforded by all the computer algos out there.
In a very successful attempt at holiday season humor, the Wall Street Journal finally noted that the equity markets had become dominated by computer algos, a fact we noted – oh – 7 years ago:


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Dr. Peter G. Kinesa




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Wednesday, February 27, 2019

Climate #Chaos Affecting Women's Birthing #Attitude


Image result for melting ice caps polar bears

























Reconsidering having kids because of climate change? You’re not alone



One in three women under 30 involved in environmental groups are so worried about climate change and the future of the planet they are reconsidering having kids, according to a new survey.
The survey focused on women’s views on climate change ahead of this year’s federal election, and found nine out of ten of them were "extremely concerned" about the issue.
For women between 30 and 39 years, 22 per cent said they were reconsidering having children or more children because of climate change.
Over 6,500 women were quizzed for the survey, which was conducted by The Australian Conservation Foundation and 1 Million Women.
A school girl holds a sign saying: "There are no jobs on a dead planet".
28-year-old Felicity Lochhead, who studies sustainability at university, says climate change is a major factor in her thinking about the future, and it’s the same for having kids.

“If I don’t take it [climate change] into account for that big decision, but I’m taking it into account for all these little decision in my life… it doesn’t make sense if I ignore it,” she told Hack.
“What I’m concerned about is that it’s beyond an environmental issue… it swells into those spheres of economic issues and social issues as well.”
Last year, the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or the IPCC, warned the world has 12 years to act to avoid the catastrophic impacts of climate change.
Even if warming was stopped at 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels, the world will still be facing more extreme weather events - more bushfires, more droughts and floods, rising sea levels, and the loss of almost all the world’s coral reefs.
All this would happen in your children’s lifetime.
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Tuesday, February 26, 2019

#Global Debt #Markets On Verge Of Imploding

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Ballooning Global Debt Will Undo Poverty Improvements


Bill Gates recently tweeted a chart (see below) that showed the percentage of the world population living in extreme poverty since 1820. Thankfully, there has been a tremendous improvement in the past two centuries – 94.4% of humans lived in extreme poverty in 1820 versus only 9.6% in 2015. Of course, this chart started a lively debate about the reasons for this improvement, whether the definition of extreme poverty is correct, and so on.


The point I want to add to this debate is that there is a very real risk that soaring global debt will cause another severe economic crisis (likely a full-blown depression), which will reverse a portion of the gains made in poverty reduction, cause geopolitical instability, unrest, wars, and other unpleasant side-effects. Global debt has surged by nearly $150 trillion since 2003 and $70 trillion since 2008. As bad as the 2008 global financial crisis was, the next crisis will hit the global economy even harder simply due to the fact that an additional $70+ trillion in debt has been added. That means that governments and central banks have far less firepower with which to stabilize their economies in the next crisis.






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Monday, February 25, 2019

The Climate #Crisis Has Arrived...




The climate crisis has arrived – so stop feeling guilty and start imagining your future


Evidence of the devastating impacts of anthropogenic climate change are stacking up, and it is becoming horrifyingly real. There can be no doubt that the climate crisis has arrived. Yet another “shocking new study” led The Guardian and various other news media this week. One-third of Himalayan ice cap, they report, is doomed.

Meanwhile in Australia, record summer temperatures have wrought unprecedented devastation of biblical proportions – mass deaths of horses, bats and fish are reported across the country, while the island state of Tasmania burns. In some places this version of summer is a terrifying new normal.

Image result for downtown toronto

The climate disaster future is increasingly becoming the present – and, as the evidence piles up, it is tempting to ask questions about its likely public reception. Numerous psychological perspectives suggest that if we have already invested energy in denying the reality of a situation we experience as profoundly troubling, the closer it gets, the more effort we put into denying it.

While originally considered as a psychological response, denial and other defence mechanisms we engage in to keep this reality at bay and maintain some sense of “normality” can also be thought of as interpersonal, social and cultural. Because our relationships, groups and wider cultures are where we find support in not thinking, talking and feeling about that crisis. There are countless strategies for maintaining this state of knowing and not-knowing – we are very inventive.

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LIMITS TO GROWTH



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Dr. Peter G. Kinesa


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Friday, February 22, 2019

Plummeting #Insect Numbers 'Threaten #Collapse of Nature'

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Exclusive: Insects could vanish within a century at current rate of decline, says global review

The rate of insect extinction is eight times faster than that of mammals, birds and reptiles.

 The rate of insect extinction is eight times faster than that of mammals, birds and reptiles. Photograph: Courtesy of Entomologisher Verein Krefeld


The world’s insects are hurtling down the path to extinction, threatening a “catastrophic collapse of nature’s ecosystems”, according to the first global scientific review.

More than 40% of insect species are declining and a third are endangered, the analysis found. The rate of extinction is eight times faster than that of mammals, birds and reptiles. The total mass of insects is falling by a precipitous 2.5% a year, according to the best data available, suggesting they could vanish within a century.
The planet is at the start of a sixth mass extinction in its history, with huge losses already reported in larger animals that are easier to study. But insects are by far the most varied and abundant animals, outweighing humanity by 17 times. They are “essential” for the proper functioning of all ecosystems, the researchers say, as food for other creatures, pollinators and recyclers of nutrients.
Image result for google waterfront toronto


Insect population collapses have recently been reported in Germany and Puerto Rico, but the review strongly indicates the crisis is global. The researchers set out their conclusions in unusually forceful terms for a peer-reviewed scientific paper: “The [insect] trends confirm that the sixth major extinction event is profoundly impacting [on] life forms on our planet.

“Unless we change our ways of producing food, insects as a whole will go down the path of extinction in a few decades,” they write. “The repercussions this will have for the planet’s ecosystems are catastrophic to say the least.”

Scarce copper butterflies.


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INSECT EXTINCTION



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Dr. Peter G. Kinesa


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Thursday, February 21, 2019

#2019: World #Economy To Collapse As #Growth Limits Reached


"considerable financial volatility can be expected in 2019 if the economy is trying to slow itself."


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Figure 1. Base scenario from The Limits to Growth, printed using today’s graphics by Charles Hall and John Day in Revisiting Limits to Growth After Peak Oil with dotted line at 2019 added by author. The 2019 line is drawn based on where the world economy seems to be now, rather than on precisely where the base model would put the year 2019.


2019: World Economy Is Reaching Growth Limits; Expect Low Oil Prices, Financial Turbulence


The economy is a self-organizing structure that operates under the laws of physics. Many people have thought that when the world economy reaches limits, the limits would be of the form of high prices and “running out” of oil. This represents an overly simple understanding of how the system works. What we should really expect, and in fact, what we are now beginning to see, is production cuts in finished goods made by the industrial system, such as cell phones and automobiles, because of affordability issues. Indirectly, these affordability issues lead to low commodity prices and low profitability for commodity producers. For example:
  • The sale of Chinese private passenger vehicles for the year of 2018 through November is down by 2.8%, with November sales off by 16.1%. Most analysts are forecasting this trend of contracting sales to continue into 2019. Lower sales seem to reflect affordability issues.
  • Saudi Arabia plans to cut oil production by 800,000 barrels per day from the November 2018 level, to try to raise oil prices. Profits are too low at current prices.
  • Coal is reported not to have an economic future in Australia, partly because of competition from subsidized renewables and partly because China and India want to prop up the prices of coal from their own coal mines.




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WALL STREET'S 2019 WARNINGS




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Dr. Peter G. Kinesa



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